Loading...
Publication
Risk analysis: dentifying the determinants of HORECA companies default risk
| Name: | Description: | Size: | Format: | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 614.16 KB | Adobe PDF |
Authors
Advisor(s)
Abstract(s)
As pequenas e médias empresas (PME) são extremamente importantes. Eles são o verdadeiro motor de qualquer economia, uma vez que são grande enpregadores da força de trabalho disponível e geralmente são consideradas um bom indicador da trajetoria da economia. Em Portugal, as PME dominam a quota de mercado no setor empresarial não financeiro e contratam a maior parte da força de trabalho disponível. A sua importância vital determina a importância de se conhecer a sua situação financeira.
Foi realizado um estágio na Yourdata (empresa de Business Intelligence localizada em Faro) com o objetivo de tentar construir um modelo de previsão da probabilidade de incumprimento de empresa pertencentes ao sector HORECA na região do Algarve e olhar para o bem-estar financeiro das PME's da região. O modelo foi construído exclusivamente a partir de dados e informações proporcionados pela Yourdata, e que posteriormente foram colocados num ficheiro de dados Excel. Durante o estágio, foram analisadas as informações financeiras de diferentes empresas (principalmente informações contabilísticas) pertencentes aos clientes da Yourdata.
A construção do modelo utilizou a metodologia de regressão multinomial devido à natureza multicategórica e não ordenada da variável dependente. O modelo, na sua forma final, baseia-se em três índices financeiros cobrindo as áreas da liquidez, rentabilidade e alavancagem.
Os resultados do modelo estimado estão de acordo com o que foi encontrado em estudos e artigos semelhantes na literatura. Os resultados do modelo estimado mostraram que um aumento nos índices de rentabilidade e liquidez resulta na diminuição da probabilidade de incumprimemto das empresas. E um aumento nos índices de alavancagem, gera um aumento na probabilidade de incumprimento.
Small and medium enterprises (SME’s) are extremely important. They are the true engine of any economy. They hire the majority of the available workforce and usually considered to be an index to gauge the performance of an economy. In Portugal SME’s dominate the market share in the non-financial business sector and they hire the most of the available workforce. And because of their vital importance it is very important to know about their financial wellbeing. An internship was undertaken at Yourdata (a Business Intelligence firm located in Faro) with a goal to try and build a model that is capable of predicting the default probability of a firms based in the HORECA (the food and Service) sector in the Algarve region. The model was built solely out of data and information that the host company had, and that was later placed in a single Excel database file. During the internship the trainee examined different companies’ financial information (mainly accounting information) belonging to YourData clients. The estimation of the model was based on the multinomial regression methodology due to the multi-categorical nature and unordered nature of the dependent variable. The model in its final shape consisted of three financial ratios addressing the areas of liquidity, profitability and leverage. The results of the estimated model came in accordance with what have been found in similar studies and articles throughout the literature. The results of the estimated model showed that an increase in profitability and liquidity ratios, naturally resulted in a decrease in the default probability of a firm. And an increase in ratios addressing leverage, generates an increase in the estimated default probability of a firm.
Small and medium enterprises (SME’s) are extremely important. They are the true engine of any economy. They hire the majority of the available workforce and usually considered to be an index to gauge the performance of an economy. In Portugal SME’s dominate the market share in the non-financial business sector and they hire the most of the available workforce. And because of their vital importance it is very important to know about their financial wellbeing. An internship was undertaken at Yourdata (a Business Intelligence firm located in Faro) with a goal to try and build a model that is capable of predicting the default probability of a firms based in the HORECA (the food and Service) sector in the Algarve region. The model was built solely out of data and information that the host company had, and that was later placed in a single Excel database file. During the internship the trainee examined different companies’ financial information (mainly accounting information) belonging to YourData clients. The estimation of the model was based on the multinomial regression methodology due to the multi-categorical nature and unordered nature of the dependent variable. The model in its final shape consisted of three financial ratios addressing the areas of liquidity, profitability and leverage. The results of the estimated model came in accordance with what have been found in similar studies and articles throughout the literature. The results of the estimated model showed that an increase in profitability and liquidity ratios, naturally resulted in a decrease in the default probability of a firm. And an increase in ratios addressing leverage, generates an increase in the estimated default probability of a firm.
Description
Keywords
SME's HORECA Business intelligence Financial ratios Ddefault prediction.