Browsing by Author "Cavanaugh, Kyle"
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- Global impacts of projected climate changes on the extent and aboveground biomass of mangrove forestsPublication . Gouvêa, Lidiane; A, Serrão; Cavanaugh, Kyle; Gurgel, Carlos F. D.; Horta, Paulo A.; Assis, JorgeAim: Over the past 50 years, anthropogenic activities have led to the disappearance of approximately one-third of the world's mangrove forests and their associated ecosystem services. The synergetic combined effect of projected climate change is likely to further impact mangroves in the years to come, whether by range expansions associated with warming at higher latitudes or large-scale diebacks linked to severe droughts. We provide an estimate of future changes in the extent and aboveground biomass (AGB) of mangrove forests at global scales by considering contrasting Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (decade 2090-2100 under RCP 2.6 in line with the Paris Agreement expectations, and RCP 8.5 of higher emissions). Location: Global. Methods: Boosted regression trees fitted occurrence and AGB of mangroves against high-resolution biologically meaningful data on air temperature, precipitation, wave energy, slope and distance to river Deltas. Results: On the global scale, models produced for present-day conditions retrieved high accuracy scores and estimated a total area of 12,780,356 ha and overall biomass of 2.29 Pg, in line with previous estimates. Model projections showed poleward shifts along temperate regions, which translated into comparable gains in total area, regardless of the RCP scenario (area change RCP 2.6: 17.29%; RCP 8.5: 15.77%). However, biomass changes were dependent on the emission scenario considered, remaining stable or even increasing under RCP 2.6, or undergoing severe losses across tropical regions under RCP 8.5 (overall biomass change RCP 2.6: 12.97%; RCP 8.5: -11.51%). Such losses were particularly aggravated in countries located in the Tropical Atlantic and Eastern Pacific, and the Western and Eastern Indo-Pacific regions (regions with losses above similar to 20% in overall biomass). Conclusions: Our global estimates highlight the potential effect of future climate changes on mangrove forests and how broad compliance with the Paris Agreement may counteract severe trajectories of loss. The projections made, also provided at the country level, serve as new baselines to evaluate changes in mangrove carbon sequestration and ecosystem services, strongly supporting policy-making and management directives, as well as to guide restoration actions considering potential future changes in niche availability.
- Oceanographic connectivity explains the intra-specific diversity of mangrove forests at global scalesPublication . Gouvêa, Lidiane; Fragkopoulou, Eliza; Cavanaugh, Kyle; Serrao, Ester; Araújo, Miguel B.; Costello, Mark John; Westergerling, E. H. Taraneh; Assis, JorgeThe distribution of mangrove intra-specific biodiversity can be structured by historical demographic processes that enhance or limit effective population sizes. Oceanographic connectivity (OC) may further structure intra-specific biodiversity by preserving or diluting the genetic signatures of historical changes. Despite its relevance for biogeography and evolution, the role of oceanographic connectivity in structuring the distribution of mangrove's genetic diversity has not been addressed at global scale. Here we ask whether connectivity mediated by ocean currents explains the intra-specific diversity of mangroves. A comprehensive dataset of population genetic differentiation was compiled from the literature. Multigenerational connectivity and population centrality indices were estimated with biophysical modeling coupled with network analyses. The variability explained in genetic differentiation was tested with competitive regression models built upon classical isolation-by-distance (IBD) models considering geographic distance. We show that oceanographic connectivity can explain the genetic differentiation of mangrove populations regardless of the species, region, and genetic marker (significant regression models in 95% of cases, with an average R-square of 0.44 +/- 0.23 and Person's correlation of 0.65 +/- 0.17), systematically improving IBD models. Centrality indices, providing information on important stepping-stone sites between biogeographic regions, were also important in explaining differentiation (R-square improvement of 0.06 +/- 0.07, up to 0.42). We further show that ocean currents produce skewed dispersal kernels for mangroves, highlighting the role of rare long-distance dispersal events responsible for histori- cal settlements. Overall, we demonstrate the role of oceanographic connectivity in structuring mangrove intra-specific diversity. Our findings are critical for mangroves' biogeography and evolution, but also for management strategies considering climate change and genetic biodiversity conservation.