Percorrer por autor "Cvitanovic, Christopher"
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- A systematic literature review of climate change research on Europe's threatened commercial fish speciesPublication . Predragovic, Milica; Cvitanovic, Christopher; Karcher, Denis B.; Tietbohl, Matthew D.; Sumaila, U. Rashid; Horta E Costa, BarbaraClimate change poses a major challenge for global marine ecosystems and species, leading to a wide range of biological and social-ecological impacts. Fisheries are among the well-known sectors influenced by multiple effects of climate change, with associated impacts highly variable among species and regions. To successfully manage fisheries, scientific evidence about the potential direct and indirect impacts of climate change on the species targeted by fisheries is needed to inform decision-making processes. This is particularly pertinent for fisheries within European seas, as they include some of the fastest warming water bodies globally, and are thus experiencing some of the greatest impacts. Here, we systematically examine the existing scientific climate-related literature of 68 species that are both commercially important in European seas and considered threatened ac-cording to the IUCN Red List to understand the extent of information that is available to inform fisheries management and identify critical knowledge gaps that can help to direct future research effort. We also explore the climate and fishing vulnerability indices of species as potential drivers of current scientific attention. We found no literature for most of these species (n = 45), and for many others (n = 19) we found fewer than five papers studying them. Climate change related research was dominated by a few species (i.e., Atlantic salmon, European pilchard, and Atlantic bluefin tuna) and regions, such as the Northeast Atlantic, revealing a highly uneven distribution of research efforts across European seas. Most studies were biologically focused and included how abundance, distribution, and physiology may be affected by warming. Few studies incorporated some level of social-ecological information. Moreover, it appears that research on species with high climate and fishing vulnerabilities is not currently prioritized. These results highlight a gap in our understanding of how climate change can impact already threatened species and the people who depend on them for food and income. Our findings also suggest that future climate-specific adaptation measures will likely suffer from a lack of robust information. More research is needed to include all the species from our list, their relevant geographic regions, and subsequent biological and social-ecological implications.
- Up to 80% of threatened and commercial species across European marine protected areas face novel climates under high emission scenarioPublication . Predragovic, Milica; Assis, Jorge; Sumaila, U. Rashid; Gonçalves, Jorge Manuel Santos; Cvitanovic, Christopher; Horta e Costa, BarbaraMarine protected areas (MPAs) are a critical tool for safeguarding marine species and habitats for the future, though the effects of projected climate change raise concerns about their long-term success. Assessing the degree to which MPAs may be exposed to future novel climatic conditions is, therefore, crucial for informing conservation and management actions aimed at ensuring a resilient and thriving ocean in the years to come. Here, we evaluate the future exposure of 398 threatened and commercially important species to novel and extremely novel climatic conditions within European MPAs. We estimated climate novelty through multivariate analyses considering biologically meaningful distribution drivers of temperature, oxygen, pH, and primary productivity from present-day to the end of the 21st-century conditions under contrasting shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP) scenarios—low emission scenario (SSP1–1.9) and high emission scenario (SSP5–8.5). Our findings suggest that, under SSP1–1.9, ~6.5% of species and 0.5% of European MPAs will be at risk due to future novel conditions. In contrast, under SSP5–8.5, 87% of MPAs and 80% of species are projected to be at risk. Notably, up to 100% of species currently located in the MPAs of enclosed and semi-enclosed seas like the Baltic Sea and the Black Sea are projected to be exposed to novel or even extremely novel conditions. Virtually all species in most of those regions will be at risk, suggesting that even new MPAs might not be able to adequately protect them. Comparatively, the Norwegian Sea, North-East Atlantic, and western parts of the Mediterranean and North Seas are expected to be less impacted even under the high emission scenario. Overall, our study advances the understanding of the potential impacts of future climate change scenarios on threatened and commercially important marine species in European MPAs and reinforces the urgent need to meet the Paris Agreement. Our results suggest that existing approaches to marine governance in Europe may be insufficient for ensuring the success of MPAs in light of future impacts and that novel anticipatory forms of governance are needed.