Browsing by Author "Hill, Griffin"
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- Modeling aquaculture suitability in a climate change futurePublication . Mackintosh, Amy; Hill, Griffin; Costello, Mark; Jueterbock, Alexander; Assis, JorgeAquaculture has become the primary supplier of fish for human consumption, with production increasing every year since 1990 (FAO, 2020). At the same time, up to 89% of the world’s capture fisheries are fully exploited, overexploited, or collapsed. While some fisheries may have increased yields due to climate change in the short term, global fisheries catch is projected to fall by 10% by 2050 (Barange et al., 2014; Ramos Martins et al., 2021). However, the security of aquaculture production will depend on how future climate change affects productive regions as species’ optimal climatic conditions shift poleward (Chaudhary et al., 2021). This makes the forecasting of climate impacts on key aquaculture species a top priority in order to facilitate adaptation of this industry.
- Roadmap to sustainably develop the European seaweed industryPublication . Jueterbock, Alexander; Hoarau-Heemstra, Hindertje; Wigger, Karin; Duarte, Bernardo; Bruckner, Christian; Chapman, Annelise; Duan, Delin; Engelen, Aschwin; Gauci, Clément; Hill, Griffin; Hu, Zi-Min; Khanal, Prabhat; Khatei, Ananya; Mackintosh, Amy; Meland, Heidi; Melo, Ricardo; Nilsen, Anne M. L.; Olsen, Leonore; Rautenberger, Ralf; Reiss, Henning; Zhang, JieHow to build a sustainable seaweed industry is important in Europe's quest to produce 8 million tons of seaweed by 2030. Based on interviews with industry representatives and an expert-workshop, we developed an interdisciplinary roadmap that addresses sustainable development holistically. We argue that sustainable practices must leverage synergies with existing industries (e.g. IMTA systems, offshore wind farms), as the industry develops beyond experimental cultivation towards economic viability.
- Turning the tide: a 2°C increase in heat tolerance can halve climate change‐induced losses in four cold‐adapted kelp speciesPublication . Hill, Griffin; Gauci, Clément; Assis, Jorge; Jueterbock, AlexanderKelp forests are susceptible to climate change, as their sessile nature and low dispersal capacity hinder tracking of suitable conditions. The emergence of a wide array of approaches to increasing thermal tolerance seeks to change the outlook of biodiversity in a changing climate but lacks clear targets of impactful thermal resilience. Here, we utilize species distribution models (SDMs) to evaluate the potential of enhanced thermal tolerance to buffer the effects of climate change on cold-adapted kelp species: Saccharina latissima, Alaria esculenta, Laminaria hyperborea, and Laminaria digitata. For each species, we compared a baseline model-where the thermal niche remained unchanged-to models where the simulated maximum sea surface temperature tolerance was increased by 1 degrees C-5 degrees C. These models were projected into three climate change scenarios: sustainability (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 1-1.9, Paris Agreement), regional rivalry (SSP3-7.0), and fossil-fuel development (SSP 5-8.5). Our SDMs demonstrate that an increase of 1 degrees C-2 degrees C in thermal tolerance could recover over 50% of predicted losses of suitable habitat for cold-adapted kelps. However, A. esculenta, a species of growing commercial interest, still faced persistent habitat contraction across all climate change scenarios and simulated tolerance increases, including up to 15% unrecovered losses under SSP5-8.5, even with a simulated 5 degrees C increase in thermal tolerance. Our findings highlight the need for a two-pronged approach to conserve cold-adapted kelp forests: stringent reductions in greenhouse gas emission reductions in line with the SSP1-1.9 scenario, and strategies to boost kelp's thermal tolerance by at least 1 degrees C-2 degrees C. This dual approach is crucial to maintain 90% of the current suitable habitat of S. latissima and L. digitata, and 70% for A. esculenta and L. hyperborea. Relying on mitigation or adaptation alone will likely be insufficient to maintain their historic range under projected climate change.