Browsing by Author "Kazi, Maysha"
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- Changes in storm impacts along the Portuguese sandy coast for different climate scenariosPublication . Kazi, Maysha; Loureiro, Carlos; Ferreira, ÓscarStorms can result in extensive damage to the socioeconomic and environmental balance along the sandy coasts. Therefore, it is crucial to understand how the hydro-geomorphological response of sandy barriers will change due to future changes in storminess. This study aims to investigate future storm impacts on two contrasting sandy barriers along the Portuguese coast, Maceda and Tavira located respectively in the northwestern and southeastern coast, and evaluate how these will change in relation to the present situation. The approach is based on the application of the storm impact scale for the present and future climate change scenarios (mid- and end-century). Modelled wave, storm surge, and sea level data were combined with high-resolution topographic data and a conceptual model of barrier evolution to determine dune morphological parameters and impact regimes for future scenarios. The main findings of this work are that, extreme water levels will consistently increase throughout the twenty first century, mostly due to the contribution of sea level rise when compared to changes in storminess. From mid to the end-century, a reduction in dune crest elevations can be observed on the southernmost section of the Maceda coast and on the western to central section of the Tavira island. Compared to the current situation, by the mid- and end-century the intensity of collision and overwash regimes is expected to become severe in Maceda. For Tavira island, the most severe storm impact regimes are expected to be overwash and inundation, which will occur over almost half of the barrier island by 2100. From the mid-to-end century for all storm return periods, the mean overwash potential will increase substantially on the southernmost section of Maceda and on the west to the central section of Tavira island, while the mean inundation potential will gradually rise along with the mean overwash potential in Tavira. The influence of sea level rise and potential changes on the barrier morphological characteristics, particularly on the dune crest, are crucial factors influencing future changes to storm impacts.