Percorrer por autor "Mackintosh, Amy Leigh"
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- No significant projected climate change effects on the geographic ranges of marine aquaculture species under the sustainable scenario (SSP 1-1.9, 1.5°C warming)Publication . Mackintosh, Amy Leigh; Hill, Griffin Goldstein; Costello, Mark John; Assis, JorgeAquaculture is increasingly relied upon for global seafood production, projected to be the leading supplier by 2030. Climate change impacts on species health and industry productivity are already evident, creating uncertainties around long-term aquaculture development. While these impacts have been projected for some species, around 62% of aquaculture production remains unassessed. We utilized climate dissimilarity to assess the exposure of 327 species—including those previously unassessed—in their native ranges to changing climates under three climate scenarios: SSP1-1.9, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5. We projected that under a sustainability scenario (SSP1-1.9), 41% of Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZ) remained unexposed, including high-value aquaculture regions. However, under increased emissions scenarios (SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5) all current aquaculture EEZ are projected to be exposed. Semi-enclosed seas, like the Baltic, Black, and Red Seas, experience the largest dissimilarity, alongside equatorial regions. Our findings suggest widespread mitigation efforts are necessary to ensure the long-term resilience of marine aquaculture.
- Temperature-driven suitability shifts of sea lice species under climate change and the implications for salmon farmingPublication . Mackintosh, Amy Leigh; Assis, Jorge; Costello, Mark JohnSalmonids are the most valuable marine aquaculture family, worth approximately US$26.2 billion in 2022. However, the industry’s economic value is threatened by sea lice infestations, which can cause production losses and require expensive treatments to control. Climate change is driving distribution shifts in many marine species, including a potential poleward movement for several parasites. Currently, only the distribution response of the Chilean sea louse Caligus rogercresseyi has been examined under climate change conditions, while other harmful sea lice species remain unassessed. Here, we use a maximum entropy model to project the current and future thermal suitability of Lepeophtheirus salmonis, C. elongatus, and C. rogercresseyi under 3 climate change scenarios: SSP1-1.9, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5. The species’ thermal niches are similar, with preferred mean temperature ranges of 7.1 to 11.1°C for L. salmonis, 6.8 to 11.9°C for C. elongatus, and 11.0 to 12.8°C for C. rogercresseyi. Thermal suitability for all 3 species shifts and intensifies polewards under progressively warmer climate scenarios. As ocean warming also facilitates poleward range shifts of many salmonid species, the overlap in host and parasite distributions indicates that salmon aquaculture at higher latitudes could face increasing lice infestations and associated challenges.