Browsing by Author "Mensi, Walid"
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- Dependence and risk management of portfolios of metals and agricultural commodity futuresPublication . Hanif, Waqas; Mensi, Walid; Vo, Xuan Vinh; BenSaïda, Ahmed; Hernandez, Jose Arreola; Kang, Sang HoonThis paper examines the dependence structure and the portfolio allocation characteristics of a main industrial portfolio metals (gold, platinum, palladium, aluminum, silver, copper, zinc, lead, and nickel), and of an agricultural commodities portfolio (wheat, corn, soybeans, coffee, sugar cane, sugar beets, cocoa, cotton, and lumber). Our methodology is based on regular vine copulas and the conditional Value-at-Risk. The motivation to investigate the dependence structure and connectedness between agricultural, and metal commodities is to identify ways in which agricultural and metal commodities can hedge each other and to explore the possibilities of parallel investments. The results indicate that the dependence dynamics of the main metals portfolio are characterized by symmetric features. However, the dependence dynamics of the agricultural commodities portfolio are characterized by symmetric and asymmetric features; symmetric dynamics are predominant. Finally, the metal commodities portfolio is observed to be less risky for financial resource allocation during the global financial crisis.
- Downside and upside risk spillovers between precious metals and currency markets: evidence from before and during the COVID-19 crisisPublication . Hanif, Waqas; Mensi, Walid; Alomari, Mohammad; Andraz, JorgeThis paper investigates the tail dependence dynamics and asymmetric risk spillovers between the futures of four important precious metals (gold, silver, platinum, and palladium) and seven leading currencies (EUR, GBP, JPY, CAD, AUD, CHF, and CNY) before and during the COVID-19 crisis using the time-varying-parameter copula and the conditional Value-at-Risk (CoVaR) method. The results show the symmetric dependence between currencies and precious metals before the COVID-19 crisis. In contrast, we show negative and positive tail asymmetric dependences during the pandemic crisis. The COVID-19 crisis significantly amplifies the magnitude of spillover effects among the studied markets where the AUD currency exhibits the largest transmission and reception of downside and upside spillover to/from most precious metals before and during the pandemic crisis. Currency investors and portfolio managers could use the obtained results to better hedge and manage their investment positions when markets are affected by health crises.
- Impacts of COVID-19 on dynamic return and volatility spillovers between rare earth metals and renewable energy stock marketsPublication . Hanif, Waqas; Mensi, Walid; Gubareva, Mariya; Teplova, TamaraWe examine the time-frequency co-movements and return and volatility spillovers between the rare earths and six major renewable energy stocks. We employ the wavelet analysis and the spillover index methodology from January 1, 2018 to May 15, 2020. We report that the COVID-19-triggered significant increase in co-movements and spillovers in returns and volatility between the rare earths and renewable energy returns and volatility. The rare earths act as net recipient of both return and volatility spillovers, while the clean energy stocks are net transmitters of return and volatility spillovers before and during the COVID-19 crisis. The solar and wind stocks are net transmitters/receivers of spillovers before/during the pandemic. The remaining markets shift from net spillover receivers to transmitters or vice versa; evidencing the effects of the pandemic. Our results show that cross-market hedge strategies may have their efficiency impaired during the periods of crises implying a necessity of portfolio rebalancing.
- Spillovers and tail dependence between oil and US sectoral stock markets before and during COVID-19 pandemicPublication . Mensi, Walid; Hanif, Waqas; Bouri, Elie; Vo, Xuan VinhPurposeThis paper examines the extreme dependence and asymmetric risk spillovers between crude oil futures and ten US stock sector indices (consumer discretionary, consumer staples, energy, financials, health care, industrials, information technology, materials, telecommunication and utilities) before and during COVID-19 outbreak. This study is based on the rationale that stock sectors exhibit heterogeneity in their response to oil prices depending on whether they are classified as oil-intensive or non-oil-intensive sectors and the possible time variation in the dependence and risk spillover effects.Design/methodology/approachThe authors employ static and dynamic symmetric and asymmetric copula models as well as Conditional Value at Risk (VaR) (CoVaR). Finally, they use robustness tests to validate their results.FindingsBefore the COVID-19 pandemic, crude oil returns showed an asymmetric tail dependence with all stock sector returns, except health care and industrials (materials), where an average (symmetric tail) dependence is identified. During the COVID-19 pandemic, crude oil returns exhibit a lower tail dependency with the returns of all stock sectors, except financials and consumer discretionary. Furthermore, there is evidence of downside and upside risk asymmetric spillovers from crude oil to stock sectors and vice versa. Finally, the risk spillovers from stock sectors to crude oil are higher than those from crude oil to stock sectors, and they significantly increase during the pandemic.Originality/valueThere is heterogeneity in the linkages and the asymmetric bidirectional systemic risk between crude oil and US economic sectors during bearish and bullish market conditions; this study is the first to investigate the average and extreme tail dependence and asymmetric spillovers between crude oil and US stock sectors.
- Upside/downside spillovers between oil and Chinese stock sectors: from the global financial crisis to global pandemicPublication . Mensi, Walid; Hanif, Waqas; Vo, Xuan Vinh; Choi, Ki-Hong; Yoon, Seong-MinThis paper examines the effects of the COVID-19 outbreak, recent oil price fall, and both global and European financial crises on dependence structure and asymmetric risk spillovers between crude oil and Chinese stock sectors. Using time-varying symmetric and asymmetric copula functions and the conditional Value at Risk measure, we provide evidence of positive tail dependence in most sectors using copula and conditional Value-at-Risk techniques. We can see the average dependence between oil and industries during the oil crisis. Moreover, we find strong evidence of bidirectional risk spillovers for all oil-sector pairs. The intensity of risk spillovers from oil to all stock sectors varies across sectors. The risk spillovers from sectors to oil are substantially larger than those from oil to sectors during COVID-19. Furthermore, the return spillover is time varying and sensitive to external shocks. The spillover strengths are higher during COVID-19 than financial and oil crises. Finally, oil do not exhibit neither hedge nor safe-haven characteristics irrespective of crisis periods.
- Volatility spillovers and frequency dependence between oil price shocks and green stock marketsPublication . Hanif, Waqas; Teplova, Tamara; Rodina, Victoria; Alomari, Mohammed; Mensi, WalidThis study uses wavelet coherence and frequency connectedness techniques to examine the time-frequency dependence and risk connectivity between oil shocks and green stocks. The results show that on mid-term and long-term scales, the dependence relationships between the oil and green stock markets are tighter while lead-lag patterns are mixed and time-varying. Total risk spillovers between the oil and green stock markets are mostly conveyed over time. Risk spillovers from the oil market are substantially larger in the green stock market. Furthermore, global crises such as the Great Recession, the oil price collapse, and the COVID-19 pandemic have substantially amplified the magnitude of risk spillovers. Overall, the green stock market has not yet developed enough potential for a larger independence from the conventional energy market. Hence, for participants in the energy and financial markets who have different time horizons for asset allocation and risk management and for committed investors in particular, the examination of time-frequency dependence and risk spillovers can be quite beneficial.