Percorrer por autor "Romero, Fabian Yesid Soler"
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- Compound flooding on an estuarine environment: case study of tagus estuaryPublication . Romero, Fabian Yesid Soler; Almeida, Luis Pedro; Hervas, Juan L. GarzonThe combined occurrence of coastal, fluvial and/or pluvial flood drivers can lead to compound flood events, which can trigger devastating social, economic, and ecological impacts, particularly in low-lying zones, including estuarine environments. A great number of these areas, which are home to significant populations worldwide, are increasingly at risk, as the intensity, phasing and frequency of such drivers are projected to change. These flood-induced impacts arise from the potential increase in inundation magnitude due to the non-linear interactions between various flood drivers, where their combined effects can exceed the simple sum of their individual contributions. Understanding their joint impacts and accurately estimating compound flood magnitudes is therefore essential for effective coastal management and disaster risk reduction. In this study, a numerical modeling framework was applied to analyze the interaction between different flood drivers (storm surge, peak river discharge, extreme rainfall and astronomical tides) in the Tagus Estuary. The first phase involved a coupled hydrodynamic model (MOHID), implemented to simulate tidal, wave, and current circulation within the estuary using oceanic and riverine boundary conditions. Based on these results, a flood model (SFINCS) was applied to simulate flooding processes along the northern and southern margins of the estuary under various scenarios. The flood model was validated using a storm event that occurred in the study area in December 2022. Subsequently, joint probability and extreme value analysis for 100-year return period values were estimated for the flood drivers and used to define multiple modeling scenarios along with different Sea Level Rise projections. These scenarios were designed to examine the flood driver’s interaction, focusing on the flood magnitudes in the context of compound flooding. This study demonstrated that compound events resulting from the interaction of pluvial/fluvial and coastal drivers can increase flood extent and depth by three to four times compared to events driven solely by coastal forces, such as a storm surge coinciding with spring tides in the estuary. Furthermore, the analysis revealed that rainfall is the primary cause of flooding in the Tagus Estuary.