Percorrer por autor "Viavattene, C."
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- Selecting coastal hotspots to storm impacts at the regional scale: a Coastal Risk Assessment FrameworkPublication . Viavattene, C.; Jiménez, J. A.; Ferreira, Óscar; Priest, S.; Owen, D.; McCall, R.Managing coastal risk at the regional scale requires a prioritization of resources along the shoreline. A transparent and rigorous risk assessment should inform managers and stakeholders in their choices. This requires advances in modelling assessment (e.g., consideration of source and pathway conditions to define the probability of occurrence, nonlinear dynamics of the physical processes, better recognition of systemic impacts and non-economic losses) and open-source tools facilitating stakeholders' engagement in the process. This paper discusses how the Coastal Risk Assessment Framework (CRAF) has been developed as part of the Resilience Increasing Strategies for Coasts Toolkit (RISC-KIT). The framework provides two levels of analysis. A coastal index approach is first recommended to narrow down the risk analysis to a reduced number of sectors which are subsequently geographically grouped into potential hotspots. For the second level of analysis an integrated modelling approach improves the regional risk assessment of the identified hotspots by increasing the spatial resolution of the hazard modelling by using innovative process-based multi-hazard models, by including generic vulnerability indicators in the impact assessment, and by calculating regional systemic impact indicators. A multi-criteria analysis of these indicators is performed to rank the hotspots and support the stakeholders in their selection. The CRAF has been applied and validated on ten European case studies with only small deviation to areas already recognised as high risk. The flexibility of the framework is essential to adapt the assessment to the specific region characteristics. The involvement of stakeholders is crucial not only to select the hotpots and validate the results, but also to support the collection of information and the valuation of assets at risk. As such, the CRAF permits a comprehensive and systemic risk analysis of the regional coast in order to identify and to select higher risk areas. Yet efforts still need to be amplified in the data collection process, in particular for socio-economic and environmental impacts.
- Storm-induced risk assessment: evaluation of two tools at the regional and hotspot scalePublication . Ferreira, Óscar; Viavattene, C.; Jiménez, J. A.; Bolle, A.; das Neves, L.; Plomaritis, Theocharis A.; McCall, R.; van Dongeren, A. R.Coastal zones are under increasing risk as coastal hazards increase due to climate change and the consequences of these also increase due to on-going economic development. To effectively deal with this increased risk requires the development of validated tools to identify coastal areas of higher risk and to evaluate the effectiveness of disaster risk reduction (DRR) measures. This paper analyses the performance in the application of two tools which have been developed in the RISC-KIT project: the regional Coastal Risk Assessment Framework (CRAF) and a hotspot early warning system coupled with a decision support system (EWS/DSS). The paper discusses the main achievements of the tools as well as improvements needed to support their further use by the coastal community. The CRAF, a tool to identify and rank hotspots of coastal risk at the regional scale, provides useful results for coastal managers and stakeholders. A change over time of the hotspots location and ranking can be analysed as a function of changes on coastal occupation or climate change. This tool is highly dependent on the quality of available information and a major constraint to its application is the relatively poor availability and accessibility of high-quality data, particularly in respect to social-economic indicators, and to lesser extent the physical environment. The EWS/DSS can be used as a warning system to predict potential impacts or to test the effectiveness of risk reduction measures at a given hotspot. This tool provides high resolution results, but needs validation against impact data, which are still scarce. The EWS/DSS tool can be improved by enhancing the vulnerability relationships and detailing the receptors in each area (increasing the detail, but also model simulations). The developed EWS/DSS can be adapted and extended to include a greater range of conditions (including climate change), receptors, hazards and impacts, enhancing disaster preparedness for effective risk reduction for further events or morphological conditions. Despite these concerns, the tools assessed in this paper proved to be valuable instruments for coastal management and risk reduction that can be adopted in a wide range of coastal areas.