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- Downside and upside risk spillovers between precious metals and currency markets: evidence from before and during the COVID-19 crisisPublication . Hanif, Waqas; Mensi, Walid; Alomari, Mohammad; Andraz, JorgeThis paper investigates the tail dependence dynamics and asymmetric risk spillovers between the futures of four important precious metals (gold, silver, platinum, and palladium) and seven leading currencies (EUR, GBP, JPY, CAD, AUD, CHF, and CNY) before and during the COVID-19 crisis using the time-varying-parameter copula and the conditional Value-at-Risk (CoVaR) method. The results show the symmetric dependence between currencies and precious metals before the COVID-19 crisis. In contrast, we show negative and positive tail asymmetric dependences during the pandemic crisis. The COVID-19 crisis significantly amplifies the magnitude of spillover effects among the studied markets where the AUD currency exhibits the largest transmission and reception of downside and upside spillover to/from most precious metals before and during the pandemic crisis. Currency investors and portfolio managers could use the obtained results to better hedge and manage their investment positions when markets are affected by health crises.
- Impacts of COVID-19 on dynamic return and volatility spillovers between rare earth metals and renewable energy stock marketsPublication . Hanif, Waqas; Mensi, Walid; Gubareva, Mariya; Teplova, TamaraWe examine the time-frequency co-movements and return and volatility spillovers between the rare earths and six major renewable energy stocks. We employ the wavelet analysis and the spillover index methodology from January 1, 2018 to May 15, 2020. We report that the COVID-19-triggered significant increase in co-movements and spillovers in returns and volatility between the rare earths and renewable energy returns and volatility. The rare earths act as net recipient of both return and volatility spillovers, while the clean energy stocks are net transmitters of return and volatility spillovers before and during the COVID-19 crisis. The solar and wind stocks are net transmitters/receivers of spillovers before/during the pandemic. The remaining markets shift from net spillover receivers to transmitters or vice versa; evidencing the effects of the pandemic. Our results show that cross-market hedge strategies may have their efficiency impaired during the periods of crises implying a necessity of portfolio rebalancing.
- Spillovers and tail dependence between oil and US sectoral stock markets before and during COVID-19 pandemicPublication . Mensi, Walid; Hanif, Waqas; Bouri, Elie; Vo, Xuan VinhPurposeThis paper examines the extreme dependence and asymmetric risk spillovers between crude oil futures and ten US stock sector indices (consumer discretionary, consumer staples, energy, financials, health care, industrials, information technology, materials, telecommunication and utilities) before and during COVID-19 outbreak. This study is based on the rationale that stock sectors exhibit heterogeneity in their response to oil prices depending on whether they are classified as oil-intensive or non-oil-intensive sectors and the possible time variation in the dependence and risk spillover effects.Design/methodology/approachThe authors employ static and dynamic symmetric and asymmetric copula models as well as Conditional Value at Risk (VaR) (CoVaR). Finally, they use robustness tests to validate their results.FindingsBefore the COVID-19 pandemic, crude oil returns showed an asymmetric tail dependence with all stock sector returns, except health care and industrials (materials), where an average (symmetric tail) dependence is identified. During the COVID-19 pandemic, crude oil returns exhibit a lower tail dependency with the returns of all stock sectors, except financials and consumer discretionary. Furthermore, there is evidence of downside and upside risk asymmetric spillovers from crude oil to stock sectors and vice versa. Finally, the risk spillovers from stock sectors to crude oil are higher than those from crude oil to stock sectors, and they significantly increase during the pandemic.Originality/valueThere is heterogeneity in the linkages and the asymmetric bidirectional systemic risk between crude oil and US economic sectors during bearish and bullish market conditions; this study is the first to investigate the average and extreme tail dependence and asymmetric spillovers between crude oil and US stock sectors.
- Spillover dynamics in DeFi, G7 banks, and equity markets during global crises: a TVP-VAR analysisPublication . Younis, Ijaz; Gupta, Himani; Du, Anna Min; Shah, Waheed Ullah; Hanif, WaqasDecentralized finance (DeFi) has become of significant interest for investors in both the financial and digital sectors. We use a time -varying parameter vector autoregression (TVP-VAR) approach to estimate the static and dynamic connections between and within DeFi, G7 banking, and equity markets. We focus on critical events such as the COVID-19 pandemic, the cryptocurrency bubble, and the Russia -Ukraine conflict. The results highlight interconnectedness and significant spillovers within and between the markets, especially during the COVID-19 pandemic. Notably, there were significant spillover effects from the G7 banking and equity markets to Japan and DeFi assets. The findings demonstrate a robust connection between DeFi platforms, G7 banking, and stock markets throughout these tumultuous periods. Policymakers, investors, and entrepreneurs are recommended to keep a close eye on changes in traditional banking and equity markets to adjust the risk of DeFi assets.