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- Forecasting daily foot traffic in recreational trails using machine learningPublication . Madden, Kyle; Lukoseviciute, Goda; Ramsey, Elaine; Panagopoulos, Thomas; Condell, JoanThis paper discusses weather factors that may affect the level of visitation at recreational walking trails and provides insights into how specific factors (wind, rain etc.) can influence visitation. The quantity of visitors received affects trail management strategies, as there are often damaging effects attributed to the excessive visitation of natural areas. Therefore, accurate forecasting can inform trail management plans. Trail partners have expressed a demand for a system that can deliver qualitative insights to inform trail management while also providing accurate visitor forecasts. This study applied the approach, utilising Machine Learning and historic footfall data from electronic people-counting sensors alongside weather data; our model is a first in the introduction of Tourism Climate Indexes into forecasting models. Factors influencing visitation levels at three walking trails across the Atlantic Area of Europe were discussed. The results highlight that the model predicts trail use with satisfactory accuracy to inform adaptive management frameworks measuring visitor experience indicators. Management implications:center dot Environmental monitoring can gather insights into the situational factors that affect visitation levels on their trails, or if there are other contributing factors aside from weather data that could be investigated.center dot Trail-related recreation operators can formulate and develop strategies and plans to prevent the occurrence of tourist crowding or congestion in periods of high demand and increase trail visitor arrivals in low demand.center dot Trail managers can develop new service that will attract visitors under different weather conditions such as shelters, indoor museums, tents that hosts visitors during rainy or sunny days.center dot Trail managers can prepare for a lower trail visitation demand through marketing and offering alternative recreational activities.
- Participatory development and management of eco-cultural trails in sustainable tourism destinationsPublication . Lukoseviciute, Goda; Henriques, Cláudia Helena; Nobre Pereira, Luis; Panagopoulos, ThomasRecent trail development has been motivated by sustainable tourism destination principles, suggesting a paradigm incorporating an eco-cultural trail concept. As with conventional trails, eco-cultural trail destination governance necessitates coordinated development and management of all landscape elements, emphasizing and protecting cultural and natural assets. This research aims to provide a sustainable strategy for developing ecocultural trails, applying a qualitative approach and stakeholder participation. Two focus groups and a workshop were conducted involving stakeholders representing governmental agencies, private enterprises, academic experts, students, and environmental organizations. A case study trail “Seven Hanging Valleys” was used in this study to develop an eco-cultural trail development and management strategy. Natural and cultural landscapes, trail infrastructure, trail visitor experience, and marketing and collaboration were the examined dimensions. Based on stakeholders’ visions, a destination development and management plan was established, aligning the environmental objectives to preserve natural and cultural assets, with improved overall experience for travellers and the community. Management implications: - Community collaboration provides trail managers and policymakers with a framework that identifies the essential levels of investment, programming, and management required to assist trails in becoming more economically and socially driven. - The proposed management plan for eco-cultural trails can assist landscape managers with indicated management priorities when developing eco-cultural trails that aim to respect natural and cultural assets and provide memorable trail-related experiences. - The process of creating a stakeholders’ shared vision for the sustainable development of the trail site provides trail managers with a better understanding of existing and future threats and allows them to future-proof trail maintenance and service plans.