Centre for Marine and Environmental Research (CIMA)

Funder

Organizational Unit

Publications

Development of a Bayesian network-based early warning system for storm-driven coastal erosion

Publication . L. Garzon, Juan; Ferreira, Óscar; Plomaritis, T. A.; Zózimo, A. C.; Fortes, C. J. E. M.; Pinheiro, L. V.

Coastal hazards such as flooding and erosion can cause large economic and human losses. Under this threat, early warning systems can be very cost-effective solutions for disaster preparation. The goal of this study was to develop, test, and implement an operational coastal erosion early warning system supported by a particular method of machine learning. Thus, the system combines Bayesian Networks, and state-of-the-art numerical models, such as XBeach and SWAN, to predict storm erosion impacts in urbanized areas. This system was developed in two phases. In the development phase, all information required to apply the machine learning method was generated including the definition of hundreds of oceanic synthetic storms, modeling of the erosion caused by these storms, and characterization of the impact levels according to a newly defined eerosion iimpact index. This adimensional index relates the distance from the edge of the dune/beach scarp to buildings and the height of that scarp. Finally, a Bayesian Network that acted as a surrogate of the previously generated information was built. After the training of the network, the conditional probability tables were created. These tables constituted the ground knowledge to make the predictions in the second phase. This methodology was validated (1) by comparing 6-h predictions obtained with the Bayesian Network and with process-based models, the latest considered as the benchmark, and (2) by assessing the predictive skills of the Bayesian Network through the unbiased iterative k-fold cross-validation procedure. Regarding the first comparison, the analysis considered the entire duration of three large storms whose return periods were 10, 16, and 25 years, and it was observed that the Bayesian Network correctly predicted between 64% and 72% of the impacts during the course of the storms, depending on the area analyzed. Importantly, this method was also able to identify when the hazardous conditions disappeared after predicting potential consequences. Regarding the Regarding the second validation approach, second validation approach, the k-fold cross-validation procedure was applied to the peak of a set of varying storms and it demonstrated that the predictive skills were maximized (63%-72%) when including three nodes as input conditions of the Bayesian Network. In the operational phase, the system was integrated into the architecture of a forecast and early warning system that predicts emergencies in coastal and port zones in Portugal, and the alerts are issued to authorities every day. This study demonstrated that the two-phase approach developed here can provide fast and high-accuracy predictions of erosion impacts. Also, this methodology can be easily implemented on other sandy beaches constituting a powerful tool for disaster management.

2024Journal article

Open Access

Identification of risk hotspots to storm events in a coastal region with high morphodynamic alongshore variability

Publication . Celedón, Victoria; Del Río, Laura; Ferreira, Óscar; Costas, Susana; Plomaritis, Theocharis A.

High-energy storm events induce hazards that promote damage and destruction of property and infrastructure. Defining high-risk areas is therefore fundamental to prioritise management actions. This work presents the application of an approach to identify hotspots of storm impact at a regional scale (tens to hundreds of kilometres). The Coastal Risk Assessment Framework Phase 1 (CRAF1) is a hotspot selection method based on a coastal index that combines the potential hazard (i.e. overwash and erosion), the exposure (based on land use) and the vulnerability (based on socio-economic data) along each kilometre of the coast to assess the risk level. The suitability of the approach was tested on the southeastern coast of the Gulf of Cadiz (South Spain). CRAF1 was applied considering a morphological worst-case scenario and events of 10/50/100-year return period. The region shows a high overwash and erosion hazard level. Nevertheless, a relatively low number of risk hotspots were identified due to the low level of occupation in the study area. Comparison against available information of previous overwash and erosion events proved the reliability of the method to identify hotspots at a regional scale, even in a coastal area with high alongshore variability (geomorphology, wave exposure and tidal range). The results support the utility of the tool for coastal managers to prioritise and support risk reduction plans. Furthermore, the method presents two aspects that enlarge its potential applicability: (1) it is relatively easy to apply at a regional scale, and (2) it can be updated with new data to test different scenarios (e.g. sea-level rise).

2022Journal article

Restricted

Evaluating the success of vegetation restoration in rewilded salt marshes

Publication . Carneiro, Inês; Carrasco, Rita; Didderen, Karin; Sousa, Ana I.

Floodbank realignment is a common practice aimed at restoring salt marsh vegetation on previously embanked land. However, experiences indicate that it may take several years before salt marsh vegetation becomes fully established. Various challenges arising from ecogeomorphic feedback mechanisms could pose significant setbacks to vegetation recolonization. The widespread adoption of transplantation techniques for the restoration and rehabilitation of rewilded landscapes has indeed proven to be a valuable tool for accelerating plant development. In the Ria Formosa coastal lagoon (South of Portugal), a pilot plan was implemented, and two salt marsh pioneer species, Spartina maritima (syn. Sporobolus maritimus ) and Sarcocornia perennis (syn. Salicornia perennis ), were transplanted from a natural salt marsh to a rewilded marsh. Biodegradable 3D porous structures were installed to mimic transplant clumping, aid sedimentation, and enhance the plant ' s initial adjustment. Ecological, sediment, and hydrodynamic data were collected during the 12-month pilot restoration plan. The environmental profiles of the donor and restoration sites were compared to substantiate the success of the transplants in the rewilded salt marsh. Results show that although plant shoot density decreased after the transplanting, Spartina maritima acclimated well to the new environmental conditions of the restoration site, showing signs of growth and cover increase, whilst Sarcocornia perennis was not able to acclimatize and survive in the restoration site. The failure behind the Sarcocornia perennis acclimation might be related to the bed properties and topographic properties of the restoration site in the rewilded marsh. Major findings contribute to a more comprehensive understanding of how salt marsh pioneering vegetation successfully colonizes disturbed habitats, facilitated using 3D -biodegradable structures.

2024-05Journal article

Restricted

Improved estimates of extreme wave conditions in coastal areas from calibrated global reanalyses

Publication . Fanti, Valeria; Ferreira, Oscar; Kümmerer, Vincent; Loureiro, Carlos

The analysis of extreme wave conditions is crucial for understanding and mitigating coastal hazards. As global wave reanalyses allow to extend the evaluation of wave conditions to periods and locations not covered by in-situ measurements, their direct use is common. However, in coastal areas, the accuracy of global reanalyses is lower, particularly for extreme waves. Here we compare two leading global wave reanalyses against 326 coastal buoys, demonstrating that both reanalyses consistently underestimate significant wave height, 50-year return period and mean wave period in most coastal locations around the world. Different calibration methods applied to improve the modelled extreme waves, resulting in a 53% reduction in the underestimation of extreme wave heights. Importantly, the 50-year return period for significant wave height is improved on average by 55%. Extreme wave statistics determined for coastal areas directly from global wave reanalyses require careful consideration, with calibration largely reducing uncertainty and improving confidence. Leading global wave reanalyses greatly underestimate extreme wave heights in coastal regions but this can be reduced with the use of individual or global calibration equations, according to an evaluation of wave height reanalyses validated against data from 326 coastal buoys.

2023Journal article

Open Access

The age of the first pulse of continental rifting associated with the breakup of Pangea in Southwest Iberia: new palynological evidence

Publication . Vilas Boas, Margarida; Paterson, Niall W.; Pereira, Zélia; Fernandes, Paulo; Cirilli, Simonetta

In this work, we report the first palynological age for the base strata of the Silves Sandstones of the Silves Group in the Algarve Basin, located in Southern Portugal. The group is the oldest sedimentary unit of the Algarve Basin and was deposited unconformably over late Pennsylvanian turbidites of the Mira Formation, which were folded and faulted during the Variscan Orogeny. The Silves Group comprises a detrital red bed succession, representing the earliest phase of sedimentation associated with the initial rifting of Pangaea. Macrofossils are rare, occurring predominantly in the top layers of this group, and do not accurately constrain the age of the entire group's deposition. From an outcrop exposed in the central Algarve, a grey mudstone bed positioned 2.5 m above the Variscan unconformity plane yielded palynomorphs that date the beginning of sedimentation in this basin to the early Carnian age (Late Triassic). The moderately well preserved and low-diversity palynological association comprises Aulisporites astigmosus, Enzonalasporites densus, Ovalipollis pseudoalatus, Samaropollenites speciosus, Tulesporites briscoensis and Vallasporites ignacii, among others, and is indicative of an early Carnian age.

2022Journal article

Restricted