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On the external forcing of global eruptive activity in the past 300 years

Publication . Le Mouël, J-L.; Gibert, D.; Courtillot, V.; Dumont, S.; de Bremond Ars, J.; Petrosino, S.; Zuddas F. Lopes, P.; Boulé, J-B.; Neves, MC; Custódio, S.; Silveira, G.; Kossobokov, V.; Coen, L.; Geze, M.

The decryption of the temporal sequence of volcanic eruptions is a key step in better anticipating future events. Volcanic activity is the result of a complex interaction between internal and external processes, with time scales spanning multiple orders of magnitude. We review periodicities that have been detected or correlated with volcanic eruptions/phenomena and interpreted as resulting from external forces. Taking a global perspective and longer time scales than a few years, we approach this interaction by analyzing three time series using singular spectral analysis: the global number of volcanic eruptions (NVE) between 1700 and 2022, the number of sunspots (ISSN), a proxy for solar activity, the polar motion (PM) and length of day (lod), two proxies for gravitational force. Several pseudo-periodicities are common to NVE and ISSN, in addition to the 11-year Schwabe cycle that has been reported in previous work, but NVE shares even more periodicities with PM. These quasi-periodic components range from ~5 to ~130 years. We interpret our analytical results in light of the Laplace's paradigm and propose that, similarly to the movement of Earth's rotation axis, global eruptive activity is modulated by commensurable orbital moments of the Jovian planets, whose influence is also detected in solar activity.

2023-04-19Journal article

Open Access

On the link between global volcanic activity and global mean sea level

Publication . Dumont, Stéphanie; Petrosino, Simona; Neves, Maria

Studying a large number of volcanic eruptions is a way to decipher general characteristics related to volcano dynamics but also on external forcing influencing it, such as solid Earth and ocean tides. Many studies have tackled this tidal influence on the onset of volcanic eruptions and more generally, on volcanic activity. However, the interplay between this quasi-permanent forcing and volcanic systems is still poorly understood. With the present study, we propose to consider a global viewpoint to address this interaction. We analyzed the number of monthly volcanic eruptions and the global mean sea level between 1880 and 2009 using the Singular Spectrum Analysis time-series analysis technique to evaluate the existence of common periodicities. We found multi-decadal components of similar periodicities present in both time-series which we link to those already recognized in the polar motion. Its multi-decadal variations result in a mass reorganization in the oceans whose associated stress changes may impact processes generating volcanic eruptions worldwide. Our results show the influence of global processes on volcanic activity and open many questions to further investigate these multi-scale interactions.

2022Journal article

Open Access