Potential consequences of future climate changes for marine forest gene pools

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Major expansion of marine forests in a warmer Arctic

Publication . Assis, Jorge; Serrao, Ester; Duarte, Carlos M.; Fragkopoulou, Eliza; Krause-Jensen, Dorte

Accelerating warming and associated loss of sea ice are expected to promote the expansion of coastal marine forests (macrophytes) along the massive Arctic coastlines. Yet, this region has received much less attention compared to other global oceans. The available future projections of Arctic macrophytes are still limited to few species and regions, and mostly focused at lower latitude ranges, thus precluding well-informed IPCC impact assessments, conservation and management. Here we aim to quantify potential distributional changes of Arctic intertidal and subtidal brown macroalgae and eelgrass by the year 2100, relative to present. We estimate habitat suitability by means of species distribution modeling, considering changes in seawater temperature, salinity, nutrients and sea ice cover under two greenhouse gas emission scenarios, one consistent with the Paris Agreement (RCP 2.6) and the other representing limited mitigation strategies (RCP 8.5). As data on substrate conditions do not exist, the models were restricted to the depth range supporting Arctic macrophytes (down to 5 m for eelgrass and 30 m for brown macroalgae). Models projected major expansions of Arctic macrophytes between 69,940 and 123,360 km2, depending on the climate scenario, with polar distribution limits shifting northwards by up to 1.5 latitude degrees at 21.81 km per decade. Such expansions in response to changing climate will likely elicit major changes in biodiversity and ecosystem functions in the future Arctic. Expansions are, however, less intense than those already realized over the past century, indicating an overall slowing down despite accelerated warming as habitats become increasingly occupied..

2022-03Journal article

Open Access

A dataset of cold-water coral distribution records

Publication . Balogh, Viktória; Fragkopoulou, Eliza; Serrao, Ester; Assis, Jorge

Species distribution data are key for monitoring present and future biodiversity patterns and informing conservation and management strategies. Large biodiversity information facilities often contain spatial and taxonomic errors that reduce the quality of the provided data. Moreover, datasets are frequently shared in varying formats, inhibiting proper integration and interoperability. Here, we provide a qualitycontrolled dataset of the diversity and distribution of coldwater corals, which provide key ecosystem services and are considered vulnerable to human activities and climate change effects. We use the common term cold-water corals to refer to species of the orders Alcyonacea, Antipatharia, Pennatulacea, Scleractinia, Zoantharia of the subphylum Anthozoa, and order Anthoathecata of the class Hydrozoa. Distribution records were collated from multiple sources, standardized using the Darwin Core Standard, dereplicated, taxonomically corrected and flagged for potential vertical and geographic distribution errors based on peer-reviewed published literature and expert consulting. This resulted in 817,559 quality-controlled records of 1,170 accepted species of cold-water corals, openly available under the FAIR principle of Findability, Accessibility, Interoperability and Reusability of data. The dataset represents the most updated baseline for the global cold-water coral diversity, and it can be used by the broad scientific community to provide insights into biodiversity patterns and their drivers, identify regions of high biodiversity and endemicity, and project potential re-distribution under future climate change. It can also be used by managers and stakeholders to guide biodiversity conser-vation and prioritization actions against biodiversity loss. (c) 2023 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. This is an open access article under the CC BY license ( http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ )

2023Journal article

Open Access

Kelp forest diversity under projected end‐of‐century climate change

Publication . Assis, Jorge; Fragkopoulou, Eliza; Gouvêa, Lidiane; Araújo, Miguel B.; Serrao, Ester

Aim: Future climate change threatens marine forests across the world, potentially disrupting ecosystem function and services. Nonetheless, the direction and intensity of climate-induced changes in kelp forest biodiversity remain unknown, precluding well-informed conservation and management practices. Location: Global. Methods: We use machine-learning models to forecast global changes in species richness and community composition of 105 kelp forest species under contrasting Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios of climate change (decade 2090-2100): one aligned with the Paris Agreement and another of substantially higher emissions. Results: A poleward and depth shift in species distributions is forecasted, translating into similar to 15% less area in the extent of the global biome, coupled with marked regional biodiversity changes. Community composition changes are mostly projected in the Arctic, the Northern Pacific and Atlantic, and Australasia, owing to poleward range expansions and wide low latitude losses. Main Conclusions: By surpassing the Paris Agreement expectations, species reshuffling may simplify and impair ecosystem services in numerous temperate regions of Australasia, Southern Africa, Southern America and the Northern Atlantic, and in the tropical Pacific, where complete species losses were projected without replacement. These estimates, flagging threatened regions and species, as well as refugial areas of population persistence, can now inform conservation, management and restoration practices considering future climate change.

2024Journal article

Open Access

Biophysical modelling and graph theory identify key connectivity hubs in the Mediterranean marine reserve network

Publication . Abecasis, David; Fragkopoulou, Eliza; Claro, Bruno; Assis, Jorge

Connectivity plays a key role in the effectiveness of MPA networks ensuring metapopulation resilience through gene flow and recruitment effect. Yet, despite its recognized importance for proper MPA network functioning, connectivity is not often assessed and is very seldomly used in marine spatial planning. Here, we combined biophysical modelling with graph theory to identify Mediterranean marine reserves that support connectivity between different ecoregions through stepping-stone processes, thus preventing network fragmentation, and those that have an important role as propagule source areas contributing to the recruitment and rescue effects. We identified 19 reserves that play a key role towards the functioning of the network, serving either as stepping-stones or as propagule sources, yet with distinct patterns between ecological groups with contrasting propagule duration (PD). The Cote D'Azur marine reserves are important both as stepping-stones and propagule sources for several ecological groups. Also, key is the Capo Rizzuto and Plemmirio marine reserves due to their role as stepping stones between different marine ecoregions, particularly for species with longer PD (Pisces, Crustacea and Echinodermata). These results provide stakeholders and managers with crucial information for the implementation and management of an efficient marine reserve network in the Mediterranean.

2023-01Journal article

Open Access

Trans-Arctic asymmetries, melting pots and weak species cohesion in the low-dispersal amphiboreal seaweed Fucus distichus

Publication . Neiva, J.; Assis, Jorge; Fragkopoulou, Eliza; Pearson, Gareth; Raimondi, Peter T.; Anderson, Laura; Krause-Jensen, Dorte; Marbà, Núria; Want, Andrew; Selivanova, Olga; Nakaoka, Masahiro; Grant, W. Stewart; Konar, Brenda; Roleda, Michael Y.; Sejr, Mikael K.; Paulino, Cristina; Serrao, Ester

Amphiboreal taxa are often composed of vicariant phylogroups and species complexes whose divergence and phylogeographic affinities reflect a shared history of chronic isolation and episodic trans-Arctic dispersal. Ecological filters and shifting selective pressures may also promote selective sweeps, niche shifts and ecological speciation during colonization, but these are seldom considered at biogeographical scales. Here we integrate genetic data and Ecologic Niche Models (ENMs) to investigate the historical biogeography and cohesion of the polymorphic rockweed Fucus distichus throughout its immense amphiboreal range, focusing on trans-Arctic asymmetries, glacial/interglacial dynamics, and integrity of sympatric eco-morphotypes. Populations were sampled throughout the Pacific and the Atlantic, from southern rear-edges to the high-Arctic. They were genotyped for seven microsatellites and an mtDNA spacer, and genetic diversity and structure were assessed from global to local scales. ENMs were used to compare niche divergence and magnitude of post-glacial range shifts in Pacific versus Atlantic sub-ranges. Haplotypic and genotypic data revealed distinct and seemingly isolated Pacific vs Arctic/Atlantic gene-pools, with finer-scale regional sub-structuring pervasive in the Pacific. MtDNA diversity was highly structured and overwhelmingly concentrated in the Pacific. Regionally, Alaska showed the highest intra-population diversity but the lowest levels of endemism. Some sympatric/parapatric ecotypes exhibited distinct genotypic/haplotypic compositions. Strikingly, niche models revealed higher Pacific tolerance to maximum temperatures and predicted a much more consolidated presence in the NE Atlantic. Glacial and modern ranges overlapped extensively in the Pacific, whereas the modern Atlantic range was largely glaciated or emerged during the Last Glacial Maximum. Higher genetic and ecogeographic diversity supports a primary Pacific diversification and secondary Atlantic colonization, also likely reflecting the much larger and more stable climatic refugia in the Pacific. The relic distribution and reduced ecological/morphological plasticity in the NE Atlantic are hypothesized to reflect functional trans-Arctic bottlenecks, recent colonization or competition with congeners. Within the Pacific, Alaska showed signatures of a post-glacial melting pot of eastern and southern populations. Genetic/ecotypic variation was generally not sufficiently discontinuous or consistent to justify recognizing multiple taxonomic entities, but support a separate species in the eastern Pacific, at the southern rear-edge. We predict that layered patterns of phylogeographic structure, incipient speciation and niche differences might be common among widespread low-dispersal amphiboreal taxa.

2024-04Journal article

Open Access