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Advisor(s)
Abstract(s)
European-wide conservation policies are based on the identification of priority habitats.
However, research on conservation biogeography often relies on the results and projections
of species distribution models to assess species' vulnerability to global change. We assess
whether the distribution and structure of threatened communities can be predicted by the
suitability of the environmental conditions for their indicator species. We present some
preliminary results elucidating if using species distribution models of indicator species at a
regional scale is a valid approach to predict these endangered communities. Dune plant
assemblages, affected by severe conditions, are excellent models for studying possible
interactions among their integrating species and the environment. We use data from an
extensive survey of xerophytic inland sand dune scrub communities from Portugal, one of
the most threatened habitat types of Europe. We identify indicator shrub species of different
types of communities, model their geographical response to the environment, and evaluate
whether the output of these niche models are able to predict the distribution of each type of
community in a different region.