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- Coastal responses to sea-level rise on centennial to millennial time scales: development of hybrid model-based forecasting for the Guadiana EstuaryPublication . Sampath, DMR; Boski, T.In the context of hybrid approach, this study was focused on formalizing and application of a simple and idealized model using a set of theoretical framework based on rule-based morphological expressions. Main objectives were: (1) to simulate the sedimentary infilling of the Guadiana Estuary palaeovalley due to eustatic sea-level rise during the Holocene, against previous geomorphological and post-glacial palaeoenvironmental reconstructions based on facies interpretation and 14C dating; (2) to assess potential morphological impacts and risk of habitat shift by simulating the morphological evolution of the Guadiana estuary and its intertidal zone for the worst case of sea level rise and sedimentation scenarios predicted for the 21st century; (3) to assess the sensitivity of bed friction coefficient, power index of the current velocity in the erosion rate function, river discharge, and sea-level rise rate in determining the decadal scale morphological evolution in the Guadiana estuary; and (4) To understand the effect of dam construction along the Guadiana river on the estuarine morphology. According to the results, the long-term modelling of the morphological evolution in the estuary due to sea-level rise during the Holocene complemented previous reconstructions, based on interpretations of the experimental data. The intermediate hybrid approach that was followed in this study appears to be a useful tool for simulating the morphological evolution of an estuarine system during the period of postglacial sea-level rise. It seems particularly suited to the more sheltered environments of an estuarine system where vertical aggradation dominates the sedimentary infilling of the palaeovalley. However, the direct application of Estuarine Sedimentation Model and the intermediate hybrid model, are very much applicable to a system where there is net accretion throughout the estuarine system. These constraints were compensated to a certain extent using the fully developed hybrid model as it was able to produce elevation change distribution from 2000 to 2014 in the Guadiana estuary, approximately similar to the observed normal probability distribution for the same period. This improved model was able to produce spatial variability of eroding and accreting regions, enabling the coupling of decadal scale model to centennial scale model. Furthermore, results indicate the deficiencies of defining the environmental flow as a percentage of dry season flow and the risk of habitat loss from the intertidal zone. Thus, a multi-dimensional approach has to be adopted to mitigate their consequences of sea-level rise and drastic flow regulations on the ecosystem of the Guadiana estuary.