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  • Effects of environmental conditions and seasonality on Barents Sea shrimp dynamics and consequences for stock assessment
    Publication . Casla, Alex Rosa; Zimmermann, Fabian; Guerreiro, Pedro Miguel Guerreiro da Costa
    Northern shrimp (Pandalus borealis) stock can be found across most of the Barents Sea, sustaining a large and valuable trawl fishery with an estimated sustainable catch of around 150,000 tonnes annually. The stock is monitored by Norway and Russia, and scientific advice is provided annually. However, the shrimp fishery in the Barents Sea has remained largely unregulated without any catch restrictions, with changes in catches mostly driven by economic factors, especially white fish accessibility and global shrimp prices. The current Northern shrimp stock assessment uses a biomass index from a spatiotemporal distribution model based on a relatively short survey time series. We evaluated whether including available time series of shrimp survey data from winter and environmental data could improve the model’s predictive potential and, thus, the quality of the assessment. While environmental variables did not provide a significant improvement in the biomass index model, the winter data aligned well with the summer data, providing valuable information on stock trends throughout the year. This research led to the implementation of a winter biomass index in the Barents Sea shrimp stock assessment model. The results showed that the inclusion of winter data provided similar estimates of biomass and fishing mortality com pared to the former model, but with increased predictive performance and accuracy. However, significant spatial and spatiotemporal random effects indicate that shrimp distribution and dynamics are linked to biotic and abiotic processes that are currently not explicitly accounted for in our modelling framework, which should be subject to further research. This project provides an important contribution to an improved stock assessment for the shrimp stock in the Barents Sea and, thus, sustainable catch advice. This is particularly relevant given the species’ important role in a changing arctic marine ecosystem, and the growing fishing pressure Northern shrimp is subjected to.
    2025-06-06Master thesis Open access Show more