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- Regional assessment of storm related overwash and breaching hazards on coastal barriersPublication . Plomaritis, Theocharis A.; Ferreira, Óscar; Costas, SusanaCoastal communities are threatened by the impact of severe storms that may cause significant loss of life and damage to properties. Among the main processes behind such impacts on coastal barriers are the occurrence of overwash and breaching during storm events. In order to estimate potential losses associated with a particular event, the above processes must be properly parameterized. Here, we propose a novel methodology to estimate overwash and breaching hazards suitable for a regional scale analysis (Ø 100 km). For the overwash hazard assessment, the method is based on the application of the approach developed by Donnelly (2008) that allows the parametrisation of the overwash hazard considering both flow velocity and flow depth. Moreover, the inland extension of the associated hazard, which is critical to assess subsequent vulnerability, can also be estimated following this methodology. The proposed method requires the selection of a runup formula validated for the study area, a storm beach profile, a runup lens angle, and a percolation constant for infiltration. To assess the breaching, hazard, a new multivariable evaluation is proposed that allows ranking the potential of breaching. The multivariable evaluation combines overwash and erosion hazards as well as their extensions with the main morphological characteristics of the barrier, resulting in the breaching hazard index, that ranks from 0 to 5 (no breaching to inlet formation). Inland breaching extension is also relevant for the vulnerability assessment. The breaching extension can be estimated using historical or contemporary analogues of the nearest flood deltas. The developed approaches were applied to Ancão Peninsula (Algarve, Portugal) as a demonstration example. The advantages of the present approach are: adaptability to various environments where overwash and/or breaching processes are important, time efficiency on evaluating overwash and breaching hazards, and the assessment of hotspot areas at a regional scale.
- Barrier island resilience assessment: Applying the ecological principles to geomorphological dataPublication . Kombiadou, Katerina; Matias, Ana; Costas, Susana; Carrasco, A. Rita; Plomaritis, Theocharis A.; Ferreira, ÓscarApplying the ecological resilience principles to barrier island geomorphological evolution requires approaches that perceive and interpret resilience far from predefined barrier characteristics and static views. Accepting that barrier islands, like all natural systems, are dynamic and adaptively changing in response to external disturbances is fundamental to the formulated approach. To this aim, geomorphological units and dimensions were used to describe barrier island stability landscape as an actively shifting ‘topography’, reshaping in response to exogenous events and in relation to intrinsic properties. The structure of the subaerial barrier was characterised using the environmental units of Beach, Dune and Marsh (or BDM), where different combinations of BDM structure define distinct barrier stable states, under a simplified framework that is applicable over a wide range of barrier structures. The methodology is based on reconstructing resilience trajectories of barrier islands through identifying the distinct BDM states and related shifts (thresholds crossed) and assessing resilience dimensions (latitude, resistance and precariousness defined as barrier width and height and proximity to mainland, respectively) that, jointly, define the shape of the stability domain. The approach was applied to the Ria Formosa barrier island system (S. Portugal), using multi-decadal geomorphological data and gradually decreasing spatial discretisation, passing from individual barrier transects to sectors and to entire barriers. The joint evolution of two inland-migrating barriers (Cabanas Island and Cacela Peninsula) was used as an exemplar of adaptive capacity in barrier geomorphic change and, therefore, of resilient response to external pressures. Resilience pathways showed that the Ria Formosa barriers have been resilient over the studied timeframe, with a tendency for maintaining or increasing BDM structural complexity. In general, the stability domain tends to shift from low latitude and high resistance forms (narrow-deep basins of attraction) in the west part of the barrier chain, to higher latitudes and lower resistance ones (wide-shallow basins) towards the east. Precariousness peaks near the edges of the system (low lagoon width) and minimises towards the central part (most detached barriers). Scaling issues regarding smoothing of longshore variability and potential consequences on masking thresholds and critical dimensions are highlighted and discussed, along with the key role of the meaning of specified resilience (of what?) in the assessment. The methodology is a novel approach, easily transferable to different systems and spatiotemporal scales of analysis, representing a step forward in interpreting and assessing barrier island resilience.
- Exploring foredune growth capacity in a coarse sandy beachPublication . Costas, Susana; Bon de Sousa, Luísa; Kombiadou, Katerina; Ferreira, Oscar; Plomaritis, Theocharis A.Dunes are key elements of coastal landscapes in almost every latitude. They host high levels of biodiversity and provide important benefits to society; e.g. protection against floods and erosion, or recreation. Coastal dune growth is constrained by intrinsic factors, which are critical when managing dune systems or choosing coastal dune restoration as an alternative green solution for coastal protection. Here, the evolution of a beach-dune system, characterized by a reflective coarse sandy beach and low dunes, is explored to identify the favourable and optimal conditions for dune growth in these settings. Dune growth capacity is evaluated by analysing the topographical changes observed along a coastal dune over two different temporal scales (interannual and event scale) and comparing the observations with theoretical approximations of sediment transport potentials. Observations and predictions over interannual scale document that (1) temporal variability in external conditions (wind regime) and spatial variability of estimated wind fetch length, alone, fail to explain alongshore dune growth patterns and (2) optimal conditions for dune growth occur when storms (strong winds) impact the study area, jointly with low runup levels, at zones of shoreline progradation and absence of direct human influence. Conversely, lowest values of dune accumulation are associated with areas where shoreline retreat was documented. Observations from event timescales suggest that sediment transport potential can be reached over zones with no significant signs of beach erosion, if runup levels remain low and the event duration is shorter than the time scale of sand surface depletion within the upper beach.
- Process-based indicators to assess storm induced coastal hazardsPublication . Ferreira, Óscar; Plomaritis, Theocharis A.; Costas, SusanaStorms are responsible for several hazards (e.g. overwash, erosion, inundation) in coastal areas, leading to the destruction of property and loss of life in populated areas. Various indicators are used to express potential storm impact and describe the associated hazards. The most commonly used indicators include either forcing parameters (e.g. wave height, sea level) or coastal morphologies (e.g. dune height or berm width). Whereas they do not represent the processes associated with storm induced hazards in coastal areas. Alternatively, a hazard could be better characterised if process-based indicators are used instead. Process-based indicators express the result of the forcing mechanisms acting over the coastal morphology and reflect both hydrodynamic and morphological characteristics. This work discusses and synthesizes the most relevant process-based indicators for sandy shores subject to overwash, erosion and inundation promoted by storms. Those include: overwash depth, potential and extent; shoreline, berm or dune retreat; vertical erosion; and inundation depth and extent. The selection of a reduced set of process-based indicators to identify coastal hazards induced by storms in sandy coasts will facilitate comparison of different coastal behaviours for distinct storm return periods, and help to optimise coastal management plans, thereby contributing to the reduction of coastal risks.
- Modeling of coastal erosion in exposed and groin-protected steep beachesPublication . Garzon, Juan L.; Ferreira, Oscar; Plomaritis, Theocharis A.Process-based models are suitable tools for reproducing storm-driven erosion. However, their performance has been mainly examined on mild-slope sandy beaches and their use on steep beaches still represents a challenge. Here, open-source process-based model XBeach experiments were combined with topographical measurements collected for two storms (16- and 5-year return period) to obtain a reliable model. The model parameters “facua” (parameterized wave asymmetry and skewness sediment transport component), “bermslope” (upslope transport term for semireflective beaches), and “wetslope” (critical avalanching submerged slope) were utilized for calibration and validation. The 16-year storm simulations on an exposed beach revealed that whether bermslope increased and “facua” must be reduced, and vice versa, to properly simulate erosion. Adding bermslope provided excellent results for these storms when using facua and wetslope values close to the recommended values. In a groin-protected site, XBeach was successfully calibrated and validated for the tested storms using these parameters, although with different values. These experiments demonstrated that the appropriate use of these parameters can satisfactorily simulate morphological changes on steep beaches for different hydrodynamic conditions and coastal settings (exposed and groin protected).
- Predicting coastal hazards for sandy coasts with a Bayesian NetworkPublication . Poelhekke, Laurens; Jager, Wiebke S.; Van Dongeren, Ap; Plomaritis, Theocharis A.; McCall, Robert; Ferreira, ÓscarLow frequency, high impact storm events can have large impacts on sandy coasts. The physical processes governing these impacts are complex because of the feedback between the hydrodynamics of surges and waves, sediment transport and morphological change. Predicting these coastal changes using a numerical model requires a large amount of computational time, which in the case of an operational prediction for the purpose of Early Warning is not available. For this reason morphodynamic predictions are not commonly included in Early Warning Systems (EWSs). However, omitting these physical processes in an EWS may lead to potential under or over estimation of the impact of a storm event.To solve this problem, a method has been developed to construct a probabilistic Bayesian Network (BN). This BN connects three elements: offshore hydraulic boundary conditions, characteristics of the coastal zone, and onshore hazards, such as erosion and overwash depths and velocities. The hydraulic boundary conditions are derived at a water depth of approximately 20 m from a statistical analysis of observed data using copulas, and site characteristics are obtained from measurements. This BN is trained using output data from many pre-computed process based model simulations, which connect the three elements. Once trained, the response of the BN is instantaneous and can be used as a surrogate for a process-based model in an EWS in which the BN can be updated with an observation of the hydraulic boundary conditions to give a prediction for onshore hazards.The method was applied to Praia de Faro, Portugal, a low-lying urbanised barrier island, which is subject to frequent flooding. Using a copula-based statistical analysis, which preserves the natural variability of the observations, a synthetic dataset containing 100 events was created, based on 20 years of observations, but extended to return periods of significant wave height of up to 50 years. These events were transformed from offshore to onshore using a 2D XBeach (Roelvink et al., 2009) model. Three BN configurations were constructed, of which the best performing one was able to predict onshore hazards as computed by the model with an accuracy ranging from 81% to 88% and predict events with no significant onshore hazards with an accuracy ranging from 90% to 95%. Two examples are presented on the use of a BN in operational predictions or as an analysis tool.The added value of this method is that it can be applied to many coastal sites: (1) limited observations of offshore hydrodynamic parameters can be extended using the copula method which retains the original observations' natural variability, (2) the transformation from offshore observations to onshore hazards can be computed with any preferred coastal model and (3) a BN can be adjusted to fit any relevant connections between offshore hydraulic boundary conditions and onshore hazards. Furthermore, a BN can be continuously updated with new information and expanded to include different morphological conditions or risk reduction measures. As such, it is a promising extension of existing EWSs and as a planning tool for coastal managers. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
- Overwash hazards assessment using a simplified process based approachPublication . Plomaritis, Theocharis A.; Costas, Susana; Ferreira, ÓscarCoastal communities are threatened by the impact of severe storms that may cause significant loss or damage of property and life. One of the main processes behind such impacts is the overwash of coastal barriers. In order to estimate the losses associated with a particular event, overwash must be properly parameterized. Here, we propose a novel approach to estimate potential overwash hazards, which includes the associated major processes and crucial parameters. For that purpose it was used the parametrisation of the physical processes developed by Donnelly (2008), and the overwash hazard was related to both flow velocity and flow depth, which are in turn a function of lateral spreading of the flow and percolation. The proposed method requires the selection of a validated run-up formula for the study area; a percolation constant for infiltration; a typical value for the run-up lens; and a storm beach profile. Combining these parameters, the overwash depth and velocity for different return periods can be estimated together with the associated hazards. The advantages of the present approach are: adaptability to any environment where overwash processes are important, time efficiency on evaluating overwash hazards, and the assessment of hotspot areas at a regional scale (tens to hundred kilometres).
- Storm-induced risk assessment: evaluation of two tools at the regional and hotspot scalePublication . Ferreira, Óscar; Viavattene, C.; Jiménez, J. A.; Bolle, A.; das Neves, L.; Plomaritis, Theocharis A.; McCall, R.; van Dongeren, A. R.Coastal zones are under increasing risk as coastal hazards increase due to climate change and the consequences of these also increase due to on-going economic development. To effectively deal with this increased risk requires the development of validated tools to identify coastal areas of higher risk and to evaluate the effectiveness of disaster risk reduction (DRR) measures. This paper analyses the performance in the application of two tools which have been developed in the RISC-KIT project: the regional Coastal Risk Assessment Framework (CRAF) and a hotspot early warning system coupled with a decision support system (EWS/DSS). The paper discusses the main achievements of the tools as well as improvements needed to support their further use by the coastal community. The CRAF, a tool to identify and rank hotspots of coastal risk at the regional scale, provides useful results for coastal managers and stakeholders. A change over time of the hotspots location and ranking can be analysed as a function of changes on coastal occupation or climate change. This tool is highly dependent on the quality of available information and a major constraint to its application is the relatively poor availability and accessibility of high-quality data, particularly in respect to social-economic indicators, and to lesser extent the physical environment. The EWS/DSS can be used as a warning system to predict potential impacts or to test the effectiveness of risk reduction measures at a given hotspot. This tool provides high resolution results, but needs validation against impact data, which are still scarce. The EWS/DSS tool can be improved by enhancing the vulnerability relationships and detailing the receptors in each area (increasing the detail, but also model simulations). The developed EWS/DSS can be adapted and extended to include a greater range of conditions (including climate change), receptors, hazards and impacts, enhancing disaster preparedness for effective risk reduction for further events or morphological conditions. Despite these concerns, the tools assessed in this paper proved to be valuable instruments for coastal management and risk reduction that can be adopted in a wide range of coastal areas.