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- Persistence change in tourism dataPublication . Andraz, Jorge Miguel; Rodrigues, Paulo M. M.The authors apply recently proposed persistence change tests to inbound tourism series in order to evaluate whether their properties have changed over time. By using quarterly series of the number of overnight stays in hotel accommodation and similar establishments in the Algarve, from 1987:01 to 2008:03, they gathered evidence of persistence change in all series. In particular, a change from I(1) to I(0) was detected for some countries, while for others the direction change was not clear-cut. These results have implications from a policy perspective and shed light on the generally accepted conviction that policy decision processes should not ignore the fact that, in general, tourism inbound series display mean reverting behaviour, being only temporarily affected by external shocks.
- A new approach in the analysis of european countries convergence: Lessons for the economies of central and eastern europePublication . Andraz, Jorge Miguel; Rodrigues, Paulo M. M.In this paper, we use the concept of convergence based on the stationarity of cross-country per capita output differences and propose new on the persistence and change of persistence of data, taking into consideration the occurrence of structural changes. We consider data on per capita output of the European Union member states, considering the Western European economies and the Eastern European economies in a total of 23 countries. Our objective is to analyze the convergence process of these economies and, in particular to conclude whether there has been a convergence and/or divergent process between the Western European economies and between those economies and the Eastern European economies over the sample period. By considering different sub-periods, the results suggest that in general the Western European countries have reduced their per capita output gaps, being Ireland the only country reporting divergence until the end of the 80s. Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland and Romania have reported divergence to Western European countries over the period from the 50s to the 90s. Finally, per capita output gaps of other Eastern economies have been reduced since the 1990s, in particular the cases of Latvia and Lithuania.
- Persistence change in tourism dataPublication . Andraz, Jorge Miguel; Rodrigues, Paulo M. M.In this paper we apply recently proposed persistence change tests to evaluate whether the properties of inbound tourism series have changed over time. The degree of persistence may reáect the extent to which the shocks a§ecting the series are themselves persistent or may be a consequence of diverse structural factors in the economy. Hence, the main objective of this paper is to investigate whether tourism series display both stationary and nonstationary features within the sample period considered.