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- Climate correlates of bluetongue incidence in southern PortugalPublication . Mestre, Frederico; Pereira, Ana Luísa; Bastos Araújo, MiguelModel forecasts of the spatiotemporal occurrence dynamics of diseases are necessary and can help understand and thus manage future disease outbreaks. In our study, we used ecological niche modelling to assess the impact of climate on the vector suitability for bluetongue disease, a disease affecting livestock production with important economic consequences. Specifically, we investigated the relationship between the occurrence of bluetongue outbreaks and the environmental suitability of each of the four vector species studied. We found that the main vector for bluetongue disease, Culicoides imicola, a typically tropical and subtropical species, was a strong predictor for disease outbreak occurrence in a region of southern Portugal from 2004 to 2021. The results highlight the importance of understanding the climatic factors that might influence vector presence to help manage infectious disease impacts. When diseases impact economically relevant species, the impacts go beyond mortality and have important economic consequences.
- Climate change is expected to severely impact protected designation of origin olive growing regions over the Iberian PeninsulaPublication . Guise, Inês; Silva, Bruno; Mestre, Frederico; Muñoz-Rojas, José; Duarte, Maria F.; Herrera, José M.The Iberian Peninsula is the world's largest olive ( Olea europaea subsp. europaea L. ) producing region due to its high environmental suitability for olive growing, consistently accounting for about half of the global share. Moreover, it includes a range of olive-producing regions with Protected Designation of Origin (PDO), aimed to safeguard and promote the distinctive geographical status of agricultural products linked to unique environmental characteristics. Despite the olive industry's economic importance, the impact of climate change on the environmental suitability and the environmental distinctiveness of olive-producing regions is still far from being understood. OBJECTIVE: The objective of our work was twofold. First, to evaluate changes in the spatial distribution patterns of environmental suitability for olive growing both within and outside PDOs across the Iberian Peninsula under two climate change scenarios within a 2050 time horizon. Second, to evaluate the ability of PDOs to retain their distinctive environmental characteristics in response to new climate regimes. METHODS: The study area was framed using 1 x 1 km square plots. We used an Ecological Niche Modelling approach, firstly, to model the environmental correlates of environmental suitability for olive growing and, secondly, to forecast their relative change within and outside PDOs. The estimated change in environmental suitability for olive growing was calculated as the percentage variation between the present and each climate change scenario. Additionally, a Random Forests Modelling approach was employed, firstly, to model the environmental correlates of PDOs and, secondly, to evaluate their environmental distinctiveness based on the probability of belonging to a given PDO. The estimated change in environmental distinctiveness of PDOs was calculated as the percentage variation between present and future in the probability of belonging to the same PDO. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest significant climate-driven range shifts of environmental suitability toward northern latitudes, leading to widespread reductions in southern latitudes both within and outside PDO olive-growing regions. Climate change will also severely affect the idiosyncratic environmental envelope of most PDOs, leading to the loss of their environmental distinctiveness. SIGNIFICANCE: Our study demonstrates that climate change's impact on olive growing in the Iberian Peninsula might be stronger than previously thought. We propose exploiting the existing genotypic and phenotypic diversity related to climate- or climate diversity- as a way to adapt O. europaea crops to shifting climates and, in turn, allow olive growers to continue to grow in their current location for many years to come.
- Are threatened species important for glueing interaction networks together?Publication . González-del-Pliego, Pamela; Galiana, Núria; González-Trujillo, Juan David; Mestre, Frederico; Araújo, Miguel Bastos; Bastazini, Vinicius A.G.Biotic interactions are a critical element for the functioning and the stability of ecosystems, yet anthropogenic pressures can significantly disrupt these networks of interacting species. While species-focused conservation is central to most conservation policy, it is also vital to identify the interactions at risk and the ones that play a disproportionate role in glueing communities together. Here we assess the importance of species for ecological network integrity and the risk of loss of interactions that is brought by species loss in a global predator-prey network comprising 877 mammal species. We calculated the importance of species and their interactions using network centrality analyses. The risk of loss of interactions was determined by quantifying the extinction risk of each pair of interacting species. Additionally, we examined whether specific traits or phylogenetic history influenced both extinction risk and species importance. We found that extinction risk is unrelated to species' importance in the network. We also showed that the most important interactions are at least partially at risk of being lost. Moreover, important and threatened species showed higher ecological distinctiveness, but similar low evolutionary distinctiveness. We emphasise that conservation strategies should consider the contributions of both threatened and non-threatened species to ecological networks, acknowledging the vital roles they play for ecosystem stability and function.
- Effects of road density on regional food websPublication . Mestre, Frederico; Bastazini, V. A. G.; Ascensão, F.Roads stand as major threats to biodiversity because they affect the functioning of ecosystems and the provision of ecosystem services. Understanding how the effects of roads affect the dynamics of ecological interactions is essential to managing human impacts on biodiversity, but such studies are few. We investigated species vulnerability to road density and effects of road density on food webs across Europe. Using species-specific road density thresholds, beyond which local populations may not persist, and trophic interaction data (predator-prey interactions), we constructed regional food webs to assess the potential loss of trophic interactions due to roadkill. We analyzed data on 551 species across top, intermediate, and basal trophic levels. Effects of roads varied spatially. In areas near major cities, species lost >90% of their trophic interactions. We found 191 species that were affected by loss of prey or predators. Apex predators exhibited lower direct impacts from road density than predators at lower trophic levels, and basal-level species seemed more exposed to direct road-related effects (roadkill), which could trigger a cascade of interaction disruptions. Our findings emphasize the need for informed road infrastructure development and targeted conservation strategies to mitigate the negative impacts of roads and traffic and thereby preserve the integrity of ecological networks. Our identification of critical areas where road-induced cascade effects may be most pronounced and of groups of species that may be at higher risk from roads can inform policy and conservation planning.