Loading...
12 results
Search Results
Now showing 1 - 10 of 12
- Dependence and risk management of portfolios of metals and agricultural commodity futuresPublication . Hanif, Waqas; Mensi, Walid; Vo, Xuan Vinh; BenSaïda, Ahmed; Hernandez, Jose Arreola; Kang, Sang HoonThis paper examines the dependence structure and the portfolio allocation characteristics of a main industrial portfolio metals (gold, platinum, palladium, aluminum, silver, copper, zinc, lead, and nickel), and of an agricultural commodities portfolio (wheat, corn, soybeans, coffee, sugar cane, sugar beets, cocoa, cotton, and lumber). Our methodology is based on regular vine copulas and the conditional Value-at-Risk. The motivation to investigate the dependence structure and connectedness between agricultural, and metal commodities is to identify ways in which agricultural and metal commodities can hedge each other and to explore the possibilities of parallel investments. The results indicate that the dependence dynamics of the main metals portfolio are characterized by symmetric features. However, the dependence dynamics of the agricultural commodities portfolio are characterized by symmetric and asymmetric features; symmetric dynamics are predominant. Finally, the metal commodities portfolio is observed to be less risky for financial resource allocation during the global financial crisis.
- Upside/downside spillovers between oil and Chinese stock sectors: from the global financial crisis to global pandemicPublication . Mensi, Walid; Hanif, Waqas; Vo, Xuan Vinh; Choi, Ki-Hong; Yoon, Seong-MinThis paper examines the effects of the COVID-19 outbreak, recent oil price fall, and both global and European financial crises on dependence structure and asymmetric risk spillovers between crude oil and Chinese stock sectors. Using time-varying symmetric and asymmetric copula functions and the conditional Value at Risk measure, we provide evidence of positive tail dependence in most sectors using copula and conditional Value-at-Risk techniques. We can see the average dependence between oil and industries during the oil crisis. Moreover, we find strong evidence of bidirectional risk spillovers for all oil-sector pairs. The intensity of risk spillovers from oil to all stock sectors varies across sectors. The risk spillovers from sectors to oil are substantially larger than those from oil to sectors during COVID-19. Furthermore, the return spillover is time varying and sensitive to external shocks. The spillover strengths are higher during COVID-19 than financial and oil crises. Finally, oil do not exhibit neither hedge nor safe-haven characteristics irrespective of crisis periods.
- Are REITS hedge or safe haven against oil price fall?Publication . Hanif, Waqas; Andraz, Jorge; Gubareva, Mariya; Teplova, TamaraThis paper studies the hedge against falling oil prices and the safe haven properties of fourteen major country-specific real estate investment trusts (REITs) indices for the Asian, American, European, and worldwide geographies. Our analyses are performed from both, returns and conditional volatility perspectives. Our sample spans from January 2016 until August 2022, covering the COVID-19 pandemics and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine military conflict. We find that during COVID-19, only the Japan REITs, in terms of both returns and volatility, act as a hedge for oil whereas the only hedge during the Russia-Ukraine conflict is the Netherland REITs. In addi-tion, we document diverse degrees of safe-haven and diversifiers properties for REITS from diverse geographies along the full sample and the respective sub-samples for both bearish con-ditions and elevated volatility in the oil market. Our results imply that market regulators should focus on controlling volatility in crude oil and REITs markets, especially throughout times of financial distress, as daily return volatility monitoring is a pivotal requirement for optimized investment management. Our study provides important knowledge for investors, policymakers, and market regulators.
- Downside and upside risk spillovers between precious metals and currency markets: evidence from before and during the COVID-19 crisisPublication . Hanif, Waqas; Mensi, Walid; Alomari, Mohammad; Andraz, JorgeThis paper investigates the tail dependence dynamics and asymmetric risk spillovers between the futures of four important precious metals (gold, silver, platinum, and palladium) and seven leading currencies (EUR, GBP, JPY, CAD, AUD, CHF, and CNY) before and during the COVID-19 crisis using the time-varying-parameter copula and the conditional Value-at-Risk (CoVaR) method. The results show the symmetric dependence between currencies and precious metals before the COVID-19 crisis. In contrast, we show negative and positive tail asymmetric dependences during the pandemic crisis. The COVID-19 crisis significantly amplifies the magnitude of spillover effects among the studied markets where the AUD currency exhibits the largest transmission and reception of downside and upside spillover to/from most precious metals before and during the pandemic crisis. Currency investors and portfolio managers could use the obtained results to better hedge and manage their investment positions when markets are affected by health crises.
- Dynamic connectedness and network in the high moments of cryptocurrency, stock, and commodity marketsPublication . Hanif, Waqas; Ko, Hee-Un; Pham, Linh; Kang, Sang H.This study examines the connectedness in high-order moments between cryptocurrency, major stock (U.S., U.K., Eurozone, and Japan), and commodity (gold and oil) markets. Using intraday data from 2020 to 2022 and the time and frequency connectedness models of Diebold and Yilmaz (Int J Forecast 28(1):57–66, 2012) and Baruník and Křehlík (J Financ Econom 16(2):271–296, 2018), we investigate spillovers among the markets in realized volatility, the jump component of realized volatility, realized skewness, and realized kurtosis. These higher-order moments allow us to identify the unique characteristics of financial returns, such as asymmetry and fat tails, thereby capturing various market risks such as downside risk and tail risk. Our results show that the cryptocurrency, stock, and commodity markets are highly connected in terms of volatility and in the jump component of volatility, while their connectedness in skewness and kurtosis is smaller. Moreover, jump and volatility connectedness are more persistent than that of skewness and kurtosis connectedness. Our rolling-window analysis of the connectedness models shows that connectedness varies over time across all moments, and tends to increase during periods of high uncertainty. Finally, we show the potential of gold and oil as hedging and safe-haven investments for other markets given that they are the least connected to other markets across all moments and investment horizons. Our findings provide useful information for designing effective portfolio management and cryptocurrency regulations.
- Volatility spillovers and frequency dependence between oil price shocks and green stock marketsPublication . Hanif, Waqas; Teplova, Tamara; Rodina, Victoria; Alomari, Mohammed; Mensi, WalidThis study uses wavelet coherence and frequency connectedness techniques to examine the time-frequency dependence and risk connectivity between oil shocks and green stocks. The results show that on mid-term and long-term scales, the dependence relationships between the oil and green stock markets are tighter while lead-lag patterns are mixed and time-varying. Total risk spillovers between the oil and green stock markets are mostly conveyed over time. Risk spillovers from the oil market are substantially larger in the green stock market. Furthermore, global crises such as the Great Recession, the oil price collapse, and the COVID-19 pandemic have substantially amplified the magnitude of risk spillovers. Overall, the green stock market has not yet developed enough potential for a larger independence from the conventional energy market. Hence, for participants in the energy and financial markets who have different time horizons for asset allocation and risk management and for committed investors in particular, the examination of time-frequency dependence and risk spillovers can be quite beneficial.
- Impacts of COVID-19 on dynamic return and volatility spillovers between rare earth metals and renewable energy stock marketsPublication . Hanif, Waqas; Mensi, Walid; Gubareva, Mariya; Teplova, TamaraWe examine the time-frequency co-movements and return and volatility spillovers between the rare earths and six major renewable energy stocks. We employ the wavelet analysis and the spillover index methodology from January 1, 2018 to May 15, 2020. We report that the COVID-19-triggered significant increase in co-movements and spillovers in returns and volatility between the rare earths and renewable energy returns and volatility. The rare earths act as net recipient of both return and volatility spillovers, while the clean energy stocks are net transmitters of return and volatility spillovers before and during the COVID-19 crisis. The solar and wind stocks are net transmitters/receivers of spillovers before/during the pandemic. The remaining markets shift from net spillover receivers to transmitters or vice versa; evidencing the effects of the pandemic. Our results show that cross-market hedge strategies may have their efficiency impaired during the periods of crises implying a necessity of portfolio rebalancing.
- Nonlinear dependence and spillovers between cryptocurrency and global/regional equity marketsPublication . Hanif, Waqas; Areola Hernandez, Jose; Troster, Victor; Kang, Sang Hoon; Yoon, Seong-MinIn this paper, we investigate the nonlinear dependence dynamics among eight cryptocurrencies (Monero, Bitcoin, Dash, Litecoin, Stellar, XRP, Ethereum, and Nem) by applying time-varying copulas. We also examine the upside and downside spillovers between cryptocurrencies and equity markets by a conditional Value-at-Risk (CoVaR) approach. We show that the dynamics of dependence of the portfolio of cryptocurrencies reveal both symmetric and asymmetric features, with the symmetric dynamics being more predominant. NEM and Ethereum have the largest downside and upside CoVaR spillovers on the world equity index, respectively. The largest downside CoVaR spillovers from the world equity index are to NEM followed by Stellar, and the largest upside spillovers are to Ethereum followed by NEM. Stellar and Bitcoin exhibit the largest downside and upside CoVaR spillovers on the Americas equity index. The largest downside CoVaR spillovers from the Americas equity index are to Stellar and NEM, and those on the upside are to Ethereum and NEM. In addition, we find that most cryptocurrencies exhibit safe haven or hedge properties more often than rare metals and diamonds for daily equity indices. Finally, we conduct an out-of-sample analysis of optimal-weighting portfolio strategies based on C-vine copulas using cryptocurrencies and equity indices that entails forward-looking measures of risk that are economically significant, which outperform benchmark strategies.
- Spillovers and tail dependence between oil and US sectoral stock markets before and during COVID-19 pandemicPublication . Mensi, Walid; Hanif, Waqas; Bouri, Elie; Vo, Xuan VinhPurposeThis paper examines the extreme dependence and asymmetric risk spillovers between crude oil futures and ten US stock sector indices (consumer discretionary, consumer staples, energy, financials, health care, industrials, information technology, materials, telecommunication and utilities) before and during COVID-19 outbreak. This study is based on the rationale that stock sectors exhibit heterogeneity in their response to oil prices depending on whether they are classified as oil-intensive or non-oil-intensive sectors and the possible time variation in the dependence and risk spillover effects.Design/methodology/approachThe authors employ static and dynamic symmetric and asymmetric copula models as well as Conditional Value at Risk (VaR) (CoVaR). Finally, they use robustness tests to validate their results.FindingsBefore the COVID-19 pandemic, crude oil returns showed an asymmetric tail dependence with all stock sector returns, except health care and industrials (materials), where an average (symmetric tail) dependence is identified. During the COVID-19 pandemic, crude oil returns exhibit a lower tail dependency with the returns of all stock sectors, except financials and consumer discretionary. Furthermore, there is evidence of downside and upside risk asymmetric spillovers from crude oil to stock sectors and vice versa. Finally, the risk spillovers from stock sectors to crude oil are higher than those from crude oil to stock sectors, and they significantly increase during the pandemic.Originality/valueThere is heterogeneity in the linkages and the asymmetric bidirectional systemic risk between crude oil and US economic sectors during bearish and bullish market conditions; this study is the first to investigate the average and extreme tail dependence and asymmetric spillovers between crude oil and US stock sectors.
- Spillover dynamics in DeFi, G7 banks, and equity markets during global crises: a TVP-VAR analysisPublication . Younis, Ijaz; Gupta, Himani; Du, Anna Min; Shah, Waheed Ullah; Hanif, WaqasDecentralized finance (DeFi) has become of significant interest for investors in both the financial and digital sectors. We use a time -varying parameter vector autoregression (TVP-VAR) approach to estimate the static and dynamic connections between and within DeFi, G7 banking, and equity markets. We focus on critical events such as the COVID-19 pandemic, the cryptocurrency bubble, and the Russia -Ukraine conflict. The results highlight interconnectedness and significant spillovers within and between the markets, especially during the COVID-19 pandemic. Notably, there were significant spillover effects from the G7 banking and equity markets to Japan and DeFi assets. The findings demonstrate a robust connection between DeFi platforms, G7 banking, and stock markets throughout these tumultuous periods. Policymakers, investors, and entrepreneurs are recommended to keep a close eye on changes in traditional banking and equity markets to adjust the risk of DeFi assets.