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- Oil palm survival under climate change in Kalimantan and alternative SE Asian palm oil countries with future basal stem rot assessmentsPublication . Paterson, R R MOil palm (OP) is affected by climate change and the cultivation of the crop also contributes to climate alteration. Simulation modelling and large data sets indicated the effects of climate change on OP will be to (a) reduce growth and yields and (b) cause death of some OP. Furthermore, basal stem rot (BSR) caused by Ganoderma boninense, a serious disease of OP, has increased over the past two or three decades because of the disease spreading from infection foci at a greater rate in repeated crops of OP planted on infested sites. The disease may increase further by natural selection of more virulent strains of the fungus. In this paper, increased mortality of OP is predicted based on climate change scenarios for Kalimantan and other South-East Asian countries with palm oil industries. Climate suitability scenarios for growing OP are also used to assess how BSR will change in the specified region and countries. The data suggest that Kalimantan and the Philippines may be more suitable for growing OP than Thailand and Myanmar, with Papua New Guinea being intermediate. Development of methods for mitigating the effects of climate change on OP is urgently required.
- Oil palm survival under climate change in Malaysia with future basal stem rot assessmentsPublication . Paterson, R R MThe high economic return from sales of palm oil is because of its inclusion in a vast range of commodities, and Malaysia is the second largest producer after Indonesia. However, increasing cultivation of oil palm has a negative environmental impact threatening sustainability. Basal stem rot (BSR) byGanoderma boninenseis of major concern to sustainability of the palm oil industry. CLIMEX, a computer model, provided suitability-for-future-growth maps of oil palm in Malaysia. The present study used this model to determine how climate affects oil palm growth, providing quantitative scenarios of future oil palm mortality and BSR incidence in Malaysia under a 'no change' presumption. Unsuitable climate for oil palm will make the plant susceptible to disease. High and low levels of oil palm mortality and BSR incidence were predicted from the CLIMEX model in Peninsular Malaysia and Sabah, respectively, by 2100. Sabah represented the most sustainable region in Malaysia for palm oil production followed by Sarawak. Overall, climate change will not affect the incidence of BSR greatly until 2050 but the situation will deteriorate thereafter. These scenarios can be monitored for accuracy in the future. Methods to ameliorate climate change effects on oil palm and concomitantly reducing BSR incidence are required. Palm oil production may be unsustainable after 2050, and urgent action must be taken.