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- On the external forcing of global eruptive activity in the past 300 yearsPublication . Le Mouël, J-L.; Gibert, D.; Courtillot, V.; Dumont, S.; de Bremond Ars, J.; Petrosino, S.; Zuddas F. Lopes, P.; Boulé, J-B.; Neves, MC; Custódio, S.; Silveira, G.; Kossobokov, V.; Coen, L.; Geze, M.The decryption of the temporal sequence of volcanic eruptions is a key step in better anticipating future events. Volcanic activity is the result of a complex interaction between internal and external processes, with time scales spanning multiple orders of magnitude. We review periodicities that have been detected or correlated with volcanic eruptions/phenomena and interpreted as resulting from external forces. Taking a global perspective and longer time scales than a few years, we approach this interaction by analyzing three time series using singular spectral analysis: the global number of volcanic eruptions (NVE) between 1700 and 2022, the number of sunspots (ISSN), a proxy for solar activity, the polar motion (PM) and length of day (lod), two proxies for gravitational force. Several pseudo-periodicities are common to NVE and ISSN, in addition to the 11-year Schwabe cycle that has been reported in previous work, but NVE shares even more periodicities with PM. These quasi-periodic components range from ~5 to ~130 years. We interpret our analytical results in light of the Laplace's paradigm and propose that, similarly to the movement of Earth's rotation axis, global eruptive activity is modulated by commensurable orbital moments of the Jovian planets, whose influence is also detected in solar activity.
- Climate-driven variability in the context of the water-energy nexus: a case study in southern PortugalPublication . C. Neves, Maria; Malmgren, Katherine; Neves, RuiResearch on climate-driven variability in the water and energy sectors is required to drive adaptative policies to climate change and boost cross-sectorial synergies. This study addresses the role of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and East Atlantic pattern (EA) on the water-energy nexus in southern Portugal (Algarve region) from the point of view of water demand, instead of the usual point of view of hydropower production. Water at surface reservoirs and aquifers and solar and wind energy potentials (SP and WP, respectively) do not share the same dominant variability scales, but their interrelationships have implications for leveraging the use of renewable energy in the water sector, particularly through water pumping efficiency gains. Water availability is dominated by interannual fluctuations (70% of the total variance), whereas SP and WP are characterized by seasonal variability scales (98% and 41% of the total variance, respectively). At interannual scales NAO is the main driver of low-frequency variability governing cycles in the 6-8 -year band, whereas fluctuations in the 2-4 -year band are mainly associated with EA. Coupling or synchronizations between opposite phases of NAO and EA correspond to extremes in water availability. Minimum water levels in the summer and during droughts, corresponding to maximum energy demand in the water sector, are clearly connected to synchronized positive NAO and negative EA phases in the preceding winter. Recent advances in the seasonal and long-term predictability of NAO and EA climate patterns can help to improve drought resilience and groundwater sustainability and have huge potential benefits for the water-energy nexus in the Algarve region. Finally, to decarbonize freshwater supply in the Algarve, policy instruments will need to account for unregulated pumping which enables conditions for groundwater depletion, encourage energy and water management integration, and explore innovative energy investments.
- Interactive computational modelling to improve teaching of physics and mathematics in marine geophysicsPublication . Neves, Rui Gomes; C. Neves, Maria; Simos, T.; Tsitouras, C.This study discusses the implementation of a learning sequence with interactive computational modelling activities in the context of introductory marine geophysics university courses. The application of two computer modelling systems, Modellus and Mirone, is considered for the introduction of mathematical physics models of interest in marine geophysics to students having only basic level knowledge of physics and mathematics and no prior knowledge of scientific computation. Modellus is used to compute the theoretical depth of the seafloor predicted using the plate cooling model, while is used to manipulate and display actual bathymetric data in the region of mid-ocean ridges. The combination of both software systems is illustrative and insightful of functionalities suitable to develop other computational modelling activities for marine geophysics as well as for other areas of the geosciences.
- Impact of sea-level rise on earthquake and landslide triggering offshore the Alentejo margin (SW Iberia)Publication . C. Neves, Maria; Roque, C.; Luttrell, K. M.; Vazquez, J. T.; Alonso, B.Earthquakes and submarine landslides are recurrent and widespread manifestations of fault activity offshore SW Iberia. The present work tests the effects of sea-level rise on offshore fault systems using Coulomb stress change calculations across the Alentejo margin. Large-scale faults capable of generating large earthquakes and tsunamis in the region, especially NE-SW trending thrusts and WNW-ESE trending dextral strike-slip faults imaged at basement depths, are either blocked or unaffected by flexural effects related to sea-level changes. Large-magnitude earthquakes occurring along these structures may, therefore, be less frequent during periods of sea-level rise. In contrast, sea-level rise promotes shallow fault ruptures within the sedimentary sequence along the continental slope and upper rise within distances of <100 km from the coast. The results suggest that the occurrence of continental slope failures may either increase (if triggered by shallow fault ruptures) or decrease (if triggered by deep fault ruptures) as a result of sea-level rise. Moreover, observations of slope failures affecting the area of the Sines contourite drift highlight the role of sediment properties as preconditioning factors in this region.
- Response of a multi-domain continental margin to compression: study from seismic reflection-refraction and numerical modelling in the Tagus Abyssal PlainPublication . Neves, Maria; Terrinha, P.; Afilhado, A.; Moulin, Anne M; Matias, L.; Rosas, F.The effects of the Miocene through Present compression in the Tagus Abyssal Plain are mapped using the most up to date available to scientific community multi-channel seismic reflection and refraction data. Correlation of the rift basin fault pattern with the deep crustal structure is presented along seismic line IAM-5. Four structural domains were recognized. In the oceanic realm mild deformation concentrates in Domain I adjacent to the Tore-Madeira Rise. Domain 2 is characterized by the absence of shortening structures, except near the ocean-continent transition (OCT), implying that Miocene deformation did not propagate into the Abyssal Plain, In Domain 3 we distinguish three sub-domains: Sub-domain 3A which coincides with the OCT, Sub-domain 3B which is a highly deformed adjacent continental segment, and Sub-domain 3C. The Miocene tectonic inversion is mainly accommodated in Domain 3 by oceanwards directed thrusting at the ocean-continent transition and continentwards on the continental slope. Domain 4 corresponds to the non-rifted continental margin where only minor extensional and shortening deformation structures are observed. Finite element numerical models address the response of the various domains to the Miocene compression, emphasizing the long-wavelength differential vertical movements and the role of possible rheologic contrasts. The concentration of the Miocene deformation in the transitional zone (TC), which is the addition of Sub-domain 3A and part of 3B, is a result of two main factors: (1) focusing of compression in an already stressed region due to plate curvature and sediment loading; and (2) theological weakening. We estimate that the frictional strength in the TC is reduced in 30% relative to the surrounding regions. A model of compressive deformation propagation by means of horizontal impingement of the middle continental crust rift wedge and horizontal shearing on serpentinized mantle in the oceanic realm is presented. This model is consistent with both the geological interpretation of seismic data and the results of numerical modelling. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
- Seasonal modulation of oceanic seismicity in the azoresPublication . Lordi, Ana L.; Neves, Maria; Custódio, Susana; Dumont, StéphanieThe analysis of an 11-year (2008-2018) seismic catalogue of the Azores suggests the existence of secondary cyclic influences on the seismicity rate of the oceanic region, with more earthquakes observed during the summer months, from May to August, than in winter. Statistical testing based on Monte-Carlo simulations and a Jack-Knife methodology indicate that the seasonal modulation affects earthquakes with magnitudes M3.3-4.5, well above the magnitude of completeness. Here, we investigate the seasonal variations of earthquake rate considering both the whole Azores oceanic domain and four separate sub-regions, corresponding to four regional clusters identified by previous authors. The analysis shows that the seasonal modulation is particularly observed near the Triple Junction region between the Faial Island and the Mid-Atlantic Ridge. To identify possible mechanisms driving the seasonal modulation, we apply Singular Spectral Analysis to the seismicity rate and to time-series of plausible external triggers, in order to investigate possible common periodicities. We find significant correlations between the earthquake rate, sea level anomaly rate, GRACE satellite anomalies and ocean bottom pressure, suggesting that water load may modulate the Azores oceanic seismicity.
- Groundwater response to climate variability in Mediterranean type climate zones with comparisons of California (USA) and PortugalPublication . Malmgren, Katherine; Neves, Maria; Gurdak, Jason J.; Costa, Luis; Monteiro, JoséAquifers are a fundamental source of freshwater, yet they are particularly vulnerable in coastal regions with Mediterranean type climate, due to both climatic and anthropogenic pressures. This comparative study examines the interrelationships between ocean-atmosphere teleconnections, groundwater levels and precipitation in coastal aquifers of California (USA) and Portugal. Piezometric and climate indices (1989-2019) are analyzed using singular spectral analysis and wavelet transform methods. Singular spectral analysis identifies signals consistent with the six dominant climate patterns: the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the Pacific/North American Oscillation (PNA) in California, and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Eastern Atlantic Oscillation (EA) and the Scandinavian Pattern (SCAND) in Portugal. Lower-frequency oscillations have a greater influence on hydrologic patterns, with PDO (52.75%) and NAO (46.25%) on average accounting for the largest amount of groundwater level variability. Wavelet coherences show nonstationary covariability between climate patterns and groundwater levels in distinct period bands: 4-8 years for PDO, 2-4 years for ENSO, 1-2 years for PNA, 5-8 years for NAO, 2-4 years for EA and 2-8 years for SCAND. Wavelet coherence patterns also show that coupled climate patterns (NAO+ EA- and paired PDO and ENSO phases) are associated with major drought periods in both the Mediterranean climate zones.
- Evidence of earthquake seasonality in the Azores Triple JunctionPublication . Lordi, Ana L.; Neves, MC; Custódio, Susana; Dumont, StéphanieThis work presents evidence of seasonal and inter-annual variations of the earthquake occurrence rate in the Azores Triple Junction, on the Mid-Atlantic Ridge (MAR). Annual cycles in microearthquakes are relatively common in intraplate continental regions afected by large hydrological loads, but this is the frst time that earthquake seasonality is recognized near mid-ocean ridges. First, we benchmark the methodology by matching the published results of earthquake seasonality in the intraplate New Madrid Seismic Zone (USA). Next, we analyze the Azores earthquake catalogue, from 2008 to 2018, separately for oceanic and island regions. The results demonstrate that the seasonal modulation of the seismicity rate is only observed in the ocean, especially in the vicinity of the triple junction, with more earthquakes occurring during the summer months from May to August. Monte Carlo simulations show that the probability of observing such seasonality by chance is less than 1% for the magnitude band from 3.3 to 4.5, well above the detection threshold and magnitude of completeness of the seismic catalogue. The methodology includes a Jack-Knife approach, which shows that the oceanic seasonality is not the consequence of abnormal or extreme events. Although we speculate about possible earthquake triggering processes, it remains a challenge to defnitely establish the mechanism responsible for the observed earthquake seasonal modulation in the Azores.
- The signature of NAO and EA climate patterns on the vertical structure of the canary current upwelling systemPublication . Georg, Tina; Neves, Maria; Relvas, PauloThe current study aims to analyse the vertical structure of the ocean during upwelling events using in situ and modelled data. Additionally, the influence of climate patterns, namely the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the East Atlantic (EA) pattern, on the vertical structure and their impact on the upwelling activity are assessed for a period of 25 years (1993-2017). The study focuses on the central part of the Canary Current (25-35 degrees N) with persistent upwelling throughout the year, with an annual cycle and the strongest events from June to September. Upwelling is determined using two different approaches: one index is calculated based on temperature differences between the coastal and the offshore area, and the other is calculated based on wind data and the resulting Ekman transport. Different datasets were chosen according to the indices. Stable coastal upwelling can be observed in the study area for the analysed time span, with differences throughout the latitudes. A deepening of the isothermal layer depth and a cooling of temperatures are observed in the vertical structure of coastal waters, representing a deeper mixing of the ocean and the rise of cooler, denser water towards the surface. During years of a positive NAO, corresponding to a strengthening of the Azores High and the Icelandic Low, stronger winds lead to an intensification of the upwelling activity, an enhanced mixing of the upper ocean, and a deeper (shallower) isothermal layer along the coast (offshore). The opposite is observed in years of negative NAO. Both effects are enhanced in years with a coupled, opposite phase of the EA pattern and are mainly visible during winter months, where the effect of both indices is the greatest. The study therefore suggests that upwelling activities are stronger in winters of positive North Atlantic Oscillation coupled with a negative East Atlantic pattern and emphasizes the importance of interactions between the climate patterns and upwelling.
- Easter microplate dynamicsPublication . Neves, MC; Searle, RC; Bott, MHP[1] We use two-dimensional elastic finite element analysis, supplemented by strength estimates, to investigate the driving mechanism of the Easter microplate. Modeled stresses are compared with the stress indicators compiled from earthquake focal mechanisms and structural observations. The objective is to constrain the tectonic forces that govern the Easter microplate rotation and to test the microplate driving hypothesis proposed by Schouten et al. [1993]. We infer that the mantle basal drag cannot drive the microplate rotation but opposes it, and that the asthenospheric viscosity is no more than about 1 x 10(18) Pa s. At most, the basal drag comprises 20% of the force resisting microplate rotation. The outward pull of the main plates can drive the rotation by shear drag applied along the northern and southern boundaries of the microplate. However, we propose an additional driving force which arises from the strong variation of the ridge resistance force along the east and west rifts, so that the main driving torques come from the pull of the major plates acting across the narrowing and slowing rifts. This requires the strength to increase substantially toward the rift tips due to thickening of the brittle lithosphere as the spreading rate slows.