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- Strategic scenarios for maritime spatial planning in an European outermost region—The case of the AzoresPublication . Calado, Helena; Vergílio, Marta; Caña-Varona, Mario; Pegorelli, Camila; Hipólito, Cláudia; Silva, Aida; Carreira, Gilberto; Paramio, Maria; Papaioannou, EvaThe Maritime Spatial Planning process plans towards a desired future (Vision/Goal). Such vision is usually an integration of various aspirations from different stakeholders and sectors that depend on the related policy/ governance framework. In this sense, a tool such as scenario-building is of paramount importance to MSP once it helps decision-makers visualize the future that might unfold due to specific the actions/policies needed to make such a future more likely to happen. Along these lines, this work presents the methodology and results of the scenario building process developed and applied in the Macaronesia Maritime Spatial Planning (MarSP) project, for the Autonomous Region of Azores. The methodology is structured in four main steps: (i) setting MSP ob jectives based on policy review and following stakeholders’ inputs; (ii) identifying key objectives after consul tation with regional experts; (iii) developing scenario storylines; and (iv) balancing across scenarios based on feedback from stakeholders’ engagement. Three main pre-established scenarios were developed, balancing the pillars of sustainable development, namely: “Blue Society,” “Blue Growth”, and “Blue Development”. In a consultative and participatory process, the three scenarios were later modified and validated, integrating the preferences of stakeholders, being the most voted (preferred) scenario “Blue Development”. Results highlight the importance of applying a participatory approach to scenario building in MSP to understand the preferences and expectations of different stakeholders. The methodology can be relevant and adjustable to other regions, tailored to specific settings, in support of decision making towards an adaptive MSP process.
- Expert knowledge-based co-development of scenarios for maritime spatial planning in the Northeast AtlanticPublication . Calado, H.; Pegorelli, C.; Vergílio, M.; Hipólito, Cláudia; Campos, A.; Moniz, F.; Costa, A. C.; Pereira da Silva, C.; Fonseca, C.; Frazão Santos, C.; Gabriel, D.; Guerreiro, J.; Gil, A. J. F.; Johnson, D.; Ng, K.; Monwar, M. M.; Ventura, M. A.; Suárez-de Vivero, J. L.; Pinho, M.; Borges, P.; Caña-Varona, M.; Papaioannou, E. A.Scenarios constitute narratives or storylines that reasonably describe how the future is likely to unfold. The usefulness of scenarios in Maritime Spatial Planning (MSP) is now recognised within policy and research, with many institutions urging the development of likely trajectories in the future state of the marine environment and space. However, little progress exists in the actual development and application of actual scenario building approaches. This paper presents the methodology and results of such an approach developed within the framework of the “Geographical and Political Scenarios in Maritime Spatial Planning for the Azores and North Atlantic (GPS Azores)” project. A scenario-building approach for MSP in the area is developed and future scenarios’ storylines are formulated through the active engagement of regional experts. Outcomes from the analysis enable identifying the major risks and opportunities in the management and use of marine space and key maritime sectors, under different scenarios. Three storylines are developed representing distinct trajectories in the use and governance of marine space: (i) Nature at Work; (ii) Business-as-usual; and (iii) Blue Development. Final storylines are the outcome of intense experts’ engagement throughout the scenario-building exercise, stressing the usefulness of such participative approaches. Results can assist policymakers in the context of an adaptive and participatory MSP approach. The methodology can be tailored to other regions, while results can be revisited and adapted as new information and knowledge emerge.