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Impacts of climate change on the hydrology of a highly disturbed tropical river basin

2026-03-18Artigo científico Acesso aberto
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datacite.subject.sdg13:Ação Climática
datacite.subject.sdg06:Água Potável e Saneamento
datacite.subject.sdg15:Proteger a Vida Terrestre
dc.contributor.authorAlvarenga, Claudiana Mesquita de
dc.contributor.authorAlvarenga, Lívia Alves
dc.contributor.authorMelo, Pâmela Aparecida
dc.contributor.authorTomasella, Javier
dc.contributor.authorPinto, Pâmela Rafanele França
dc.contributor.authorMello, Carlos Rogério de
dc.contributor.authorIsidoro, Jorge
dc.date.accessioned2026-07-15T14:06:05Z
dc.date.available2026-07-15T14:06:05Z
dc.date.issued2026-03-18
dc.description.abstractClimate change significantly affects hydrological responses, yet studies addressing future water availability in the Paraopeba River Basin (PRB), an important tributary of the São Francisco River Basin in Brazil, remain limited, particularly under CMIP6 scenarios and using distributed hydrological modeling approaches. In this context, this study evaluated the hydrological responses of the PRB, under climate change using the MHD-INPE. Future projections were based on an ensemble of seven climate models from the NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 collection, considering a baseline period (1992–2014), three future periods 17(2040–2060, 2061–2080 and 2081–2100) and two socioeconomic scenarios (SSP245 and SSP585). The model satisfactorily reproduced observed streamflow during the baseline period. Under the SSP585 scenario, the projections indicate stronger alterations in water availability, with a potential intensification of flood and drought events, as reflected by reductions in minimum streamflows (Q90) and increases in maximum streamflows (Q10), particularly in sub-basins 4 and 5, where Q90 reductions approach 30% and Q10 increases reach 11.7%. Additionally, a decrease in Q7,10 values was observed, which enabled the analysis of the Conflict Index (Icg), indicating that water withdrawals currently granted may exceed the limits established by existing legislation in future scenarios (Igc > 1).eng
dc.description.sponsorshipUIDB/00350/2025
dc.identifier.doi10.3390/earth7020052
dc.identifier.issn2673-4834
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.1/29278
dc.language.isoeng
dc.peerreviewedyes
dc.publisherMDPI
dc.relationAquatic Research Infrastructure Network
dc.relation.ispartofEarth
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.subjectHydrological modeling
dc.subjectMHD-INPE
dc.subjectWater availability
dc.subjectClimate change
dc.subjectParaopeba River Basin
dc.subjectCMIP6
dc.titleImpacts of climate change on the hydrology of a highly disturbed tropical river basineng
dc.typejournal article
dspace.entity.typePublication
oaire.awardNumberLA/P/0069/2020
oaire.awardTitleAquatic Research Infrastructure Network
oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT/6817 - DCRRNI ID/LA%2FP%2F0069%2F2020/PT
oaire.citation.endPage17
oaire.citation.issue2
oaire.citation.startPage1
oaire.citation.titleEarth
oaire.citation.volume7
oaire.fundingStream6817 - DCRRNI ID
oaire.versionhttp://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85
person.familyNameIsidoro
person.givenNameJorge
person.identifierR-000-7SY
person.identifier.ciencia-idA617-A962-DE4F
person.identifier.orcid0000-0002-6901-5652
person.identifier.ridN-1814-2015
person.identifier.scopus-author-id55250130500
project.funder.identifierhttp://doi.org/10.13039/501100001871
project.funder.nameFundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia
relation.isAuthorOfPublicationce8b5f4a-f058-4320-b57b-0cb775918b7b
relation.isAuthorOfPublication.latestForDiscoveryce8b5f4a-f058-4320-b57b-0cb775918b7b
relation.isProjectOfPublication5af011f9-3888-449a-a18c-d08b59e87091
relation.isProjectOfPublication.latestForDiscovery5af011f9-3888-449a-a18c-d08b59e87091

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