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Major expansion of marine forests in a warmer Arctic

2022-03Journal article Open access
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dc.contributor.authorAssis, Jorge
dc.contributor.authorSerrao, Ester
dc.contributor.authorDuarte, Carlos M.
dc.contributor.authorFragkopoulou, Eliza
dc.contributor.authorKrause-Jensen, Dorte
dc.date.accessioned2022-03-16T15:40:50Z
dc.date.available2022-03-16T15:40:50Z
dc.date.issued2022-03
dc.description.abstractAccelerating warming and associated loss of sea ice are expected to promote the expansion of coastal marine forests (macrophytes) along the massive Arctic coastlines. Yet, this region has received much less attention compared to other global oceans. The available future projections of Arctic macrophytes are still limited to few species and regions, and mostly focused at lower latitude ranges, thus precluding well-informed IPCC impact assessments, conservation and management. Here we aim to quantify potential distributional changes of Arctic intertidal and subtidal brown macroalgae and eelgrass by the year 2100, relative to present. We estimate habitat suitability by means of species distribution modeling, considering changes in seawater temperature, salinity, nutrients and sea ice cover under two greenhouse gas emission scenarios, one consistent with the Paris Agreement (RCP 2.6) and the other representing limited mitigation strategies (RCP 8.5). As data on substrate conditions do not exist, the models were restricted to the depth range supporting Arctic macrophytes (down to 5 m for eelgrass and 30 m for brown macroalgae). Models projected major expansions of Arctic macrophytes between 69,940 and 123,360 km2, depending on the climate scenario, with polar distribution limits shifting northwards by up to 1.5 latitude degrees at 21.81 km per decade. Such expansions in response to changing climate will likely elicit major changes in biodiversity and ecosystem functions in the future Arctic. Expansions are, however, less intense than those already realized over the past century, indicating an overall slowing down despite accelerated warming as habitats become increasingly occupied..pt_PT
dc.description.sponsorshipThis study was supported by the Independent Research Fund Denmark through the project “CARMA” (8021- 00222B) and the European Union through the project “FACE-IT” to DK-J, the Foundation for Science and Technology (FCT) through projects UID/Multi/04326/2020 to CCMAR and PTDC/BIA-CBI/6515/2020, the transitional norm DL57/2016/CP1361/CT0035 to JA and the fellowship SFRH/BD/144878/2019 to EF, and a Pew Marine Fellowship to ES.pt_PT
dc.description.versioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionpt_PT
dc.identifier.doi10.3389/fmars.2022.850368pt_PT
dc.identifier.eissn2296-7745
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.1/17692
dc.language.isoengpt_PT
dc.peerreviewedyespt_PT
dc.publisherFrontierspt_PT
dc.relationThe future of Arctic coastal ecosystems - Identifying transitions in fjord systems and adjacent coastal areas
dc.relationAlgarve Centre for Marine Sciences
dc.relationNot Available
dc.relationPotential consequences of future climate changes for marine forest gene pools
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/pt_PT
dc.subjectArcticpt_PT
dc.subjectMarine forestspt_PT
dc.subjectMacrophytespt_PT
dc.subjectClimate changept_PT
dc.subjectParis Agreementpt_PT
dc.subjectRange shiftspt_PT
dc.titleMajor expansion of marine forests in a warmer Arcticpt_PT
dc.typejournal article
dspace.entity.typePublication
oaire.awardTitleThe future of Arctic coastal ecosystems - Identifying transitions in fjord systems and adjacent coastal areas
oaire.awardTitleAlgarve Centre for Marine Sciences
oaire.awardTitleNot Available
oaire.awardTitlePotential consequences of future climate changes for marine forest gene pools
oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/869154/EU
oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT/6817 - DCRRNI ID/UIDB%2F04326%2F2020/PT
oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT/3599-PPCDT/PTDC%2FBIA-CBI%2F6515%2F2020/PT
oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT/DL 57%2F2016/DL 57%2F2016%2FCP1361%2FCT0035/PT
oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT/OE/SFRH%2FBD%2F144878%2F2019/PT
oaire.citation.startPage850368pt_PT
oaire.citation.titleFrontiers in Marine Sciencept_PT
oaire.citation.volume9pt_PT
oaire.fundingStreamH2020
oaire.fundingStream6817 - DCRRNI ID
oaire.fundingStream3599-PPCDT
oaire.fundingStreamDL 57/2016
oaire.fundingStreamOE
person.familyNameAssis
person.familyNameSerrao
person.familyNameFragkopoulou
person.givenNameJorge
person.givenNameEster A.
person.givenNameEliza
person.identifierC-6686-2012
person.identifier.ciencia-id5C1D-05B6-29F7
person.identifier.ciencia-id5B13-B26E-B1EC
person.identifier.ciencia-id5B1F-9922-2CB5
person.identifier.orcid0000-0002-6624-4820
person.identifier.orcid0000-0003-1316-658X
person.identifier.orcid0000-0002-0557-3954
person.identifier.ridG-9688-2012
person.identifier.scopus-author-id53463298700
person.identifier.scopus-author-id7004093604
project.funder.identifierhttp://doi.org/10.13039/501100008530
project.funder.identifierhttp://doi.org/10.13039/501100001871
project.funder.identifierhttp://doi.org/10.13039/501100001871
project.funder.identifierhttp://doi.org/10.13039/501100001871
project.funder.identifierhttp://doi.org/10.13039/501100001871
project.funder.nameEuropean Commission
project.funder.nameFundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia
project.funder.nameFundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia
project.funder.nameFundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia
project.funder.nameFundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia
rcaap.rightsopenAccesspt_PT
rcaap.typearticlept_PT
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