Operational platform for metocean forecasts in Thermaikos Gulf (Aegean Sea, Greece)

Thermaikos Gulf, located in the northeastern Mediterranean Sea, faces significant anthropogenic pressures and natural hazards, requiring reliable metocean forecasts for weather, ocean circulation, sea levels, waves, and hazard predictions, including pollutant transport, coastal floods, and freshwater discharges. The Wave4Us operational platform addresses these needs by providing high-resolution and specialised forecasts, accessible to local authorities, researchers, and the public. Additionally, on-demand predictions for marine pollution, coastal inundation, and heatwaves offer real-time insights to emergency responders and coastal authorities during hazardous events. This study presents the platform’s structure, modelling advancements, and predictive skill for specific hazards. Forecast efficiency is evaluated against satellite and field observations: (i) the simulated oil spill spreading is verified by satellite data; (ii) the modelled freshwater discharges are validated against field measurements (high correlation, RMSE < 10%); (iii) a pronounced river plume spreading is confirmed by ocean/tracer simulations and satellite imagery; (iv) the prediction of sea level, wave conditions, and coastal flooding under a severe low-pressure system is validated against measurements and documented events; (v) the marine heatwave predictions is confirmed by comparing simulated and satellite sea temperatures (error < 1%). These evaluations demonstrate the platform’s reliability in forecasting key environmental risks, aiding decision-making and response efforts in the Thermaikos Gulf region.