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Evaluation of carob tree productivity during a 30-year period, in relation to precipitation and air temperature
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Abstract(s)
Water availability for irrigation of intensive crops will become a major problem in southern Iberia. One of the tools to sustain land use under water shortage is to choose crops well adapted to those environmental stress conditions featuring low water demand. The aim of this paper is to explore several relationships between climatic variables and the fruit production of carob-tree (yield) in a series of 30 consecutive years (1985-2015) referred to one single orchard. Precipitation and air temperature were the selected variables and regression models were tested. It was not possible to find any relations between yield and temperature, but precipitation during the hydrological year was inversely and significantly related to yield (Model 1- R-2 = 0.18). A close analysis indicated that rainfall registered during autumn was particularly effective, since higher yields were obtained in the years with less rainfall registered in the period September + October + November (SON) (Model 2; R-2 = 0.21). Although the air temperature effect was not found significant, mean values between 22.0 and 24.5 degrees C during SON were crucial to flowering and yield. Model 2 was validated using an independent data set considering 3 years, and the calculated yields were overestimated by 18.6% and 4.0% in two consecutive seasons. Moreover, Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios predict a precipitation decrease for SON period in the region, which may create favorable conditions for insect pollination and fruiting success.
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Keywords
Ceratonia siliqua Climate change Flowering Autumn Yield Mediterranean
Pedagogical Context
Citation
Publisher
Springer