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Modelling the impacts of climate change on habitat suitability and vulnerability in deciduous forests in Spain

2021-11Journal article Open access
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dc.contributor.authordel Río, S.
dc.contributor.authorCanas, R.
dc.contributor.authorCano, E.
dc.contributor.authorCano-Ortiz, A.
dc.contributor.authorMusarella, C.
dc.contributor.authorPinto-Gomes, C.
dc.contributor.authorPenas, A.
dc.date.accessioned2021-10-29T13:10:34Z
dc.date.available2021-10-29T13:10:34Z
dc.date.issued2021-11
dc.description.abstractGlobal change is expected to impact on the distribution and abundance of forests. Spain represents the southwestern limit of distribution for several types of deciduous forests and, as part of the Mediterranean Basin, it has all the characteristics to be affected by climate change. This study analyses the effects of climate change on habitat suitability and vulnerability in four categories of deciduous forests: Fagus sylvatica L., Quercus petraea (Matt.) Leibl., Quercus robur L. and Betula celtiberica Rothm. and Vasc. The approach combines an ensemble platform for species distribution models (SDMs) using three algorithms applied to four global circulation models (GCMs) driven by two representative concentration pathways (RCPs). Bioclimatic, biogeographic, soil and topographic variables were taken into consideration as predictors to build 320 single distribution models. Ensemble-forecasting models were then produced for each forest category and RCPs by computing a consensus of single-model projections. The adapted proposal of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was also applied to deal with the uncertainty and notify the likelihood of the outcomes. The results revealed generalized losses in habitat suitability compared to current conditions for all the forest categories, which were more drastic for the RCP 8.5 emission pathway. Exceptions worth noting are forests of Fagus sylvatica (likelihood 25%-50%) and Quercus robur (likelihood 75%-100%) in the Orocantabrian biogeo graphic subprovince, and Quercus petraea formations in the Cantabrian Atlantic subprovince (likelihood 25%- 50%). Betula celtiberica would suffer the largest losses of habitat suitability under the climate change scenarios analysed. The vulnerability analysis confirmed that the deciduous formations least affected by climate change in future will be the Orocantabrian forests, while the Pyrenean and Oroiberian communities are the most vulnerable. The models developed in this study provide decision-makers with basic information and a useful tool for designing plans for the conservation and management of these forests in order to mitigate the impact of climate change. The study also highlights the importance and usefulness of conducting analyses at the biogeographic level, since the effects of climate change may be different and require management and conservation policies at local level.pt_PT
dc.description.versioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionpt_PT
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.ecolind.2021.108202pt_PT
dc.identifier.eissn1872-7034
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.1/17266
dc.language.isoengpt_PT
dc.peerreviewedyespt_PT
dc.publisherElsevierpt_PT
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/pt_PT
dc.subjectBioclimatologypt_PT
dc.subjectBiogeographypt_PT
dc.subjectClimate changept_PT
dc.subjectDeciduous forestspt_PT
dc.subjectHabitat suitabilitypt_PT
dc.subjectSpainpt_PT
dc.titleModelling the impacts of climate change on habitat suitability and vulnerability in deciduous forests in Spainpt_PT
dc.title.alternativeModelando os impactos das mudanças climáticas na adequação do habitat e vulnerabilidade em florestas decíduas na Espanhapt_PT
dc.typejournal article
dspace.entity.typePublication
oaire.citation.startPage108202pt_PT
oaire.citation.titleEcological Indicatorspt_PT
oaire.citation.volume131pt_PT
rcaap.rightsopenAccesspt_PT
rcaap.typearticlept_PT

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