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A multi-model approach to evaluate the role of environmental variability and fishing pressure in sardine fisheries

2014-11Journal article Open access
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dc.contributor.authorMiguel de Sousa Leitão, Francisco
dc.contributor.authorAlms, V.
dc.contributor.authorErzini, Karim
dc.date.accessioned2016-12-23T11:18:13Z
dc.date.available2016-12-23T11:18:13Z
dc.date.issued2014-11
dc.description.abstractUnderstanding the fluctuations in population abundance is a central question in fisheries. Sardine fisheries is of great importance to Portugal and is data-rich and of primary concern to fisheries managers. In Portugal, sub-stocks of Sardina pilchardus (sardine) are found in different regions: the Northwest (IXaCN), Southwest (IXaCS) and the South coast (IXaS-Algarve). Each of these sardine sub-stocks is affected differently by a unique set of climate and ocean conditions, mainly during larval development and recruitment, which will consequently affect sardine fisheries in the short term. Taking this hypothesis into consideration we examined the effects of hydrographic (river discharge), sea surface temperature, wind driven phenomena, upwelling, climatic (North Atlantic Oscillation) and fisheries variables (fishing effort) on S. pilchardus catch rates (landings per unit effort, LPUE, as a proxy for sardine biomass). A 20-year time series (1989-2009) was used, for the different subdivisions of the Portuguese coast (sardine sub-stocks). For the purpose of this analysis a multi-model approach was used, applying different time series models for data fitting (Dynamic Factor Analysis, Generalised Least Squares), forecasting (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average), as well as Surplus Production stock assessment models. The different models were evaluated, compared and the most important variables explaining changes in LPUE were identified. The type of relationship between catch rates of sardine and environmental variables varied across regional scales due to region-specific recruitment responses. Seasonality plays an important role in sardine variability within the three study regions. In IXaCN autumn (season with minimum spawning activity, larvae and egg concentrations) SST, northerly wind and wind magnitude were negatively related with LPUE. In IXaCS none of the explanatory variables tested was clearly related with LPUE. In IXaS-Algarve (South Portugal) both spring (period when large abundances of larvae are found) northerly wind and wind magnitude were negatively related with LPUE, revealing that environmental effects match with the regional peak in spawning time. Overall, results suggest that management of small, short-lived pelagic species, such as sardine quotas/sustainable yields, should be adapted to a regional scale because of regional environmental variability.
dc.identifier.doihttp://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jmarsys.2014.05.013
dc.identifier.issn0924-7963
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.1/8855
dc.language.isoeng
dc.peerreviewedyes
dc.publisherElsevier
dc.relation.isbasedonWOS:000347017700012
dc.subjectSardina pilchardus
dc.subjectTime series analyses
dc.subjectCatch rates
dc.subjectSub-stocks regional variability
dc.subjectRecruitment hypothesis
dc.subjectICES IXa sub-division
dc.titleA multi-model approach to evaluate the role of environmental variability and fishing pressure in sardine fisheries
dc.typejournal article
dspace.entity.typePublication
oaire.citation.endPage138
oaire.citation.startPage128
oaire.citation.titleJournal Of Marine Systems
oaire.citation.volume139
person.familyNameLeitão
person.familyNameErzini
person.givenNameFrancisco
person.givenNameKarim
person.identifier620214
person.identifier.ciencia-id3E1C-DBC2-42D5
person.identifier.ciencia-idD917-7133-341A
person.identifier.orcid0000-0003-4983-9782
person.identifier.orcid0000-0002-1411-0126
person.identifier.ridM-3980-2013
person.identifier.ridM-5216-2013
person.identifier.scopus-author-id7003991946
person.identifier.scopus-author-id7004015948
rcaap.rightsopenAccess
rcaap.typearticle
relation.isAuthorOfPublicationb138ce56-d033-450e-98a4-2bcb19f4a34e
relation.isAuthorOfPublicatione20f0e2d-3085-4c37-9e98-260dc9faddea
relation.isAuthorOfPublication.latestForDiscoveryb138ce56-d033-450e-98a4-2bcb19f4a34e

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