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Kelp forest diversity under projected end‐of‐century climate change

2024Journal article Open access
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dc.contributor.authorAssis, Jorge
dc.contributor.authorFragkopoulou, Eliza
dc.contributor.authorGouvêa, Lidiane
dc.contributor.authorAraújo, Miguel B.
dc.contributor.authorSerrao, Ester
dc.date.accessioned2024-05-03T09:21:17Z
dc.date.available2024-05-03T09:21:17Z
dc.date.issued2024
dc.description.abstractAim: Future climate change threatens marine forests across the world, potentially disrupting ecosystem function and services. Nonetheless, the direction and intensity of climate-induced changes in kelp forest biodiversity remain unknown, precluding well-informed conservation and management practices. Location: Global. Methods: We use machine-learning models to forecast global changes in species richness and community composition of 105 kelp forest species under contrasting Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios of climate change (decade 2090-2100): one aligned with the Paris Agreement and another of substantially higher emissions. Results: A poleward and depth shift in species distributions is forecasted, translating into similar to 15% less area in the extent of the global biome, coupled with marked regional biodiversity changes. Community composition changes are mostly projected in the Arctic, the Northern Pacific and Atlantic, and Australasia, owing to poleward range expansions and wide low latitude losses. Main Conclusions: By surpassing the Paris Agreement expectations, species reshuffling may simplify and impair ecosystem services in numerous temperate regions of Australasia, Southern Africa, Southern America and the Northern Atlantic, and in the tropical Pacific, where complete species losses were projected without replacement. These estimates, flagging threatened regions and species, as well as refugial areas of population persistence, can now inform conservation, management and restoration practices considering future climate change.pt_PT
dc.description.sponsorshipHORIZON-CL6-2021-BIODIV-01-12; BiodivRestore-253pt_PT
dc.description.versioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionpt_PT
dc.identifier.doi10.1111/ddi.13837pt_PT
dc.identifier.issn1366-9516
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.1/20698
dc.language.isoengpt_PT
dc.peerreviewedyespt_PT
dc.publisherWileypt_PT
dc.relationAlgarve Centre for Marine Sciences
dc.relationAlgarve Centre for Marine Sciences
dc.relationClimate-informed prioritization of marine biodiversity hotspots to support the implementation of the post-2020 biodiversity framework
dc.relationPotential consequences of future climate changes for marine forest gene pools
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/pt_PT
dc.subjectBiodiversitypt_PT
dc.subjectClimate changept_PT
dc.subjectKelp forestspt_PT
dc.subjectMacrophytespt_PT
dc.subjectParis agreementpt_PT
dc.subjectRange shiftspt_PT
dc.titleKelp forest diversity under projected end‐of‐century climate changept_PT
dc.typejournal article
dspace.entity.typePublication
oaire.awardTitleAlgarve Centre for Marine Sciences
oaire.awardTitleAlgarve Centre for Marine Sciences
oaire.awardTitleClimate-informed prioritization of marine biodiversity hotspots to support the implementation of the post-2020 biodiversity framework
oaire.awardTitlePotential consequences of future climate changes for marine forest gene pools
oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT/6817 - DCRRNI ID/UIDB%2F04326%2F2020/PT
oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT/6817 - DCRRNI ID/UIDP%2F04326%2F2020/PT
oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT/CEEC IND5ed/2022.00861.CEECIND%2FCP1729%2FCT0003/PT
oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT/OE/SFRH%2FBD%2F144878%2F2019/PT
oaire.citation.titleDiversity and Distributionspt_PT
oaire.fundingStream6817 - DCRRNI ID
oaire.fundingStream6817 - DCRRNI ID
oaire.fundingStreamCEEC IND5ed
oaire.fundingStreamOE
person.familyNameAssis
person.familyNameFragkopoulou
person.familyNameGouvêa
person.familyNameSerrao
person.givenNameJorge
person.givenNameEliza
person.givenNameLidiane
person.givenNameEster A.
person.identifierC-6686-2012
person.identifier.ciencia-id5C1D-05B6-29F7
person.identifier.ciencia-id5B1F-9922-2CB5
person.identifier.ciencia-idB511-30C7-FD3D
person.identifier.ciencia-id5B13-B26E-B1EC
person.identifier.orcid0000-0002-6624-4820
person.identifier.orcid0000-0002-0557-3954
person.identifier.orcid0000-0001-7010-5500
person.identifier.orcid0000-0003-1316-658X
person.identifier.ridG-9688-2012
person.identifier.scopus-author-id53463298700
person.identifier.scopus-author-id55500349800
person.identifier.scopus-author-id7004093604
project.funder.identifierhttp://doi.org/10.13039/501100001871
project.funder.identifierhttp://doi.org/10.13039/501100001871
project.funder.identifierhttp://doi.org/10.13039/501100001871
project.funder.identifierhttp://doi.org/10.13039/501100001871
project.funder.nameFundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia
project.funder.nameFundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia
project.funder.nameFundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia
project.funder.nameFundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia
rcaap.rightsopenAccesspt_PT
rcaap.typearticlept_PT
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