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Predicted regime shift in the seagrass ecosystem of the Gulf of Arguin driven by climate change

2021-12Journal article Open access
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dc.contributor.authorChefaoui, Rosa M.
dc.contributor.authorDuarte, Carlos M.
dc.contributor.authorTavares, Ana I
dc.contributor.authorFrade, Duarte
dc.contributor.authorSidi Cheikh, M.A.
dc.contributor.authorAbdoull Ba, M.
dc.contributor.authorSerrao, Ester
dc.date.accessioned2021-12-20T15:41:22Z
dc.date.available2021-12-20T15:41:22Z
dc.date.issued2021-12
dc.description.abstractThe Banc d′Arguin is a marine ecosystem of global conservation significance, the largest bird sanctuary of western Africa, supported by one of the most extensive seagrass beds in the world composed by three seagrass species, two temperate near their southern limit (Zostera noltei and Cymodocea nodosa) and one tropical at its northern limit (Halodule wrightii). Here we predict the fate of this seagrass ecosystem under climate change scenarios during the 21st century, using species distribution models and sea level rise estimates. We forecast a probable decline in total seagrass area of 3340 Km2 (78%) by 2100, involving the loss of both temperate seagrasses (Z. noltei, C. nodosa), the foundational ecosystem components. By 2050, only the tropical species (H. wrightii) would remain, which forms thin and sparse shallow stands functionally distinct from the previous tall dense meadows that span wider vertical ranges. Intertidal flats, the essential bird foraging habitats, would become unvegetated and also suffer a major reduction in area (114 km2 by 2050, 587 km2 by 2100). The large projected loss of foundational seagrass species portends a collapse of major ecosystem functions with profound impacts on biodiversity, fishery resources and ecosystem services.pt_PT
dc.description.sponsorshipPT ALG-01-0145-FEDER-022121; BIODATA.PT ALG-01-0145-FEDER-022231; PRCM/STMPOOOA4/OA9; NORTE-01-0145-FEDER000046
dc.description.versioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionpt_PT
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.gecco.2021.e01890pt_PT
dc.identifier.eissn2351-9894
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.1/17405
dc.language.isoengpt_PT
dc.peerreviewedyespt_PT
dc.publisherElsevierpt_PT
dc.relationAlgarve Centre for Marine Sciences
dc.relationHotspots de biodiversidade genética em florestas marinhas
dc.relationBridging experimental and modelling approaches to predict marine native and invasive hotspots under climate change
dc.relationExpanding potential in TROPIcal BIOdiversity and ecosystem research towards sustainable life on land
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/pt_PT
dc.subjectMarine range shiftspt_PT
dc.subjectEcosystem collapsept_PT
dc.subjectVertical nichept_PT
dc.subjectMarine biogeographypt_PT
dc.subjectMarine protected areapt_PT
dc.subjectBiodiversity conservationpt_PT
dc.subjectCanopy structurept_PT
dc.titlePredicted regime shift in the seagrass ecosystem of the Gulf of Arguin driven by climate changept_PT
dc.title.alternativeMudança de regime prevista no ecossistema de capim-marinho do Golfo de Arguin impulsionado pelas mudanças climáticaspt_PT
dc.typejournal article
dspace.entity.typePublication
oaire.awardTitleAlgarve Centre for Marine Sciences
oaire.awardTitleHotspots de biodiversidade genética em florestas marinhas
oaire.awardTitleBridging experimental and modelling approaches to predict marine native and invasive hotspots under climate change
oaire.awardTitleExpanding potential in TROPIcal BIOdiversity and ecosystem research towards sustainable life on land
oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT/6817 - DCRRNI ID/UIDB%2F04326%2F2020/PT
oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT/OE/SFRH%2FBSAB%2F150485%2F2019/PT
oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/894941/EU
oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/854248/EU
oaire.citation.startPagee01890pt_PT
oaire.citation.titleGlobal Ecology and Conservationpt_PT
oaire.citation.volume32pt_PT
oaire.fundingStream6817 - DCRRNI ID
oaire.fundingStreamOE
oaire.fundingStreamH2020
oaire.fundingStreamH2020
person.familyNameChefaoui
person.familyNameTavares
person.familyNameGonçalves Frade
person.familyNameSerrao
person.givenNameRosa
person.givenNameAna I
person.givenNameDuarte
person.givenNameEster A.
person.identifierC-6686-2012
person.identifier.ciencia-idF51B-581B-1F8B
person.identifier.ciencia-id7311-4FEB-6360
person.identifier.ciencia-id5B13-B26E-B1EC
person.identifier.orcid0000-0001-5031-4858
person.identifier.orcid0000-0003-3710-7269
person.identifier.orcid0000-0002-2809-7241
person.identifier.orcid0000-0003-1316-658X
person.identifier.ridD-3906-2009
person.identifier.scopus-author-id8636216500
person.identifier.scopus-author-id7004093604
project.funder.identifierhttp://doi.org/10.13039/501100001871
project.funder.identifierhttp://doi.org/10.13039/501100001871
project.funder.identifierhttp://doi.org/10.13039/501100008530
project.funder.identifierhttp://doi.org/10.13039/501100008530
project.funder.nameFundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia
project.funder.nameFundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia
project.funder.nameEuropean Commission
project.funder.nameEuropean Commission
rcaap.rightsopenAccesspt_PT
rcaap.typearticlept_PT
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