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Projected impacts of future climate change on the aboveground biomass of seagrasses at global scale

2025-02Artigo científico Acesso restrito
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datacite.subject.sdg14:Proteger a Vida Marinha
datacite.subject.sdg13:Ação Climática
datacite.subject.sdg15:Proteger a Vida Terrestre
dc.contributor.authorGouvêa, Lidiane
dc.contributor.authorKrause-Jensen, Dorte
dc.contributor.authorDuarte, Carlos M.
dc.contributor.authorAssis, Jorge
dc.date.accessioned2026-04-28T09:10:03Z
dc.date.available2026-04-28T09:10:03Z
dc.date.issued2025-02
dc.description.abstractSeagrasses are crucial marine ecosystems that have experienced declines due to anthropogenic and climate change impacts. The projected future climate change suggests additional seagrass losses, but no global-scale estimates are currently available on the potential changes in aboveground biomass of seagrasses. We modelled and quantified the current potential aboveground biomass (AGB) of seagrasses on the global scale and projected future AGB under contrasting Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios, from low emissions (SSP1–1.9) to high emissions (SSP3–7.0 and SSP5–8.5). A machine learning algorithm (Boosted Regression Trees) fitted a comprehensive AGB dataset against biological and anthropogenic meaningful predictors. The model performed with high accuracy (deviance explained: 0.83), highlighting the role of genus and temperature conditions in defining global AGB patterns. The model estimated a present-day average AGB of 133.83 gDW⋅m2 (DW, dry weight) and a total global AGB of 0.0673 Pg DW. Future projections were highly dependent on the emission scenario, with losses in AGB ranging between 4.25 % and 9.25 % and in overall AGB between 9.96 % and 10.26 % across scenarios. Particularly, the higher emission scenario projected severe regional losses along the coastlines of the Tropical Eastern Pacific, the Eastern Indo-Pacific, the Temperate Northern Pacific, and the Tropical Atlantic, and gains along the Temperate Southern Africa and the Arctic regions. Our global estimates underline that fulfilling the Paris Agreement, as well as conserving and monitoring populations most affected by combined anthropogenic pressures would help to limit seagrass AGB declines, thereby supporting the multiple ecological services of seagrasses.eng
dc.description.sponsorshipAGA-KHAN/540316524/2019; PTDC/BIA-CBI/6515/2020
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.178680
dc.identifier.issn0048-9697
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.1/28781
dc.language.isoeng
dc.peerreviewedyes
dc.publisherElsevier
dc.relationPotential consequences of future climate changes for marine forest gene pools
dc.relationMarine Forests of animals, plants and algae: nature-based tools to protect and restore biodiversity
dc.relationAlgarve Centre for Marine Sciences
dc.relationAlgarve Centre for Marine Sciences
dc.relationCentre for Marine and Environmental Research
dc.relationClimate Change and Future Marine Ecosystem Services and Biodiversity
dc.relation.ispartofScience of The Total Environment
dc.rights.uriN/A
dc.subjectSeagrasses
dc.subjectBoosted regression trees
dc.subjectAboveground biomass (AGB)
dc.subjectShared socioeconomic pathway (SSP)
dc.subjectClimate changes
dc.subjectFuture projections
dc.titleProjected impacts of future climate change on the aboveground biomass of seagrasses at global scaleeng
dc.typejournal article
dspace.entity.typePublication
oaire.awardNumberSFRH/BD/144878/2019
oaire.awardNumberDivRestore/0013/2020
oaire.awardNumberUIDB/04326/2020
oaire.awardNumberUIDP/04326/2020
oaire.awardNumberLA/P/0101/2020
oaire.awardNumber869300
oaire.awardTitlePotential consequences of future climate changes for marine forest gene pools
oaire.awardTitleMarine Forests of animals, plants and algae: nature-based tools to protect and restore biodiversity
oaire.awardTitleAlgarve Centre for Marine Sciences
oaire.awardTitleAlgarve Centre for Marine Sciences
oaire.awardTitleCentre for Marine and Environmental Research
oaire.awardTitleClimate Change and Future Marine Ecosystem Services and Biodiversity
oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT/OE/SFRH%2FBD%2F144878%2F2019/PT
oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT/3599-PPCDT/DivRestore%2F0013%2F2020/PT
oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT/6817 - DCRRNI ID/UIDB%2F04326%2F2020/PT
oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT/6817 - DCRRNI ID/UIDP%2F04326%2F2020/PT
oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT/6817 - DCRRNI ID/LA%2FP%2F0101%2F2020/PT
oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/869300/EU
oaire.citation.startPage178680
oaire.citation.titleScience of the Total Environment
oaire.citation.volume966
oaire.fundingStreamOE
oaire.fundingStream3599-PPCDT
oaire.fundingStream6817 - DCRRNI ID
oaire.fundingStream6817 - DCRRNI ID
oaire.fundingStream6817 - DCRRNI ID
oaire.fundingStreamH2020
oaire.versionhttp://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85
person.familyNameGouvêa
person.familyNameAssis
person.givenNameLidiane
person.givenNameJorge
person.identifier.ciencia-idB511-30C7-FD3D
person.identifier.ciencia-id5C1D-05B6-29F7
person.identifier.orcid0000-0001-7010-5500
person.identifier.orcid0000-0002-6624-4820
person.identifier.ridG-9688-2012
person.identifier.scopus-author-id55500349800
person.identifier.scopus-author-id53463298700
project.funder.identifierhttp://doi.org/10.13039/501100001871
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project.funder.identifierhttp://doi.org/10.13039/501100008530
project.funder.nameFundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia
project.funder.nameFundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia
project.funder.nameFundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia
project.funder.nameFundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia
project.funder.nameFundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia
project.funder.nameEuropean Commission
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