Repository logo
 
Publication

Developing epidemiological preparedness for a plant disease invasion: modelling citrus huánglóngbìng in the European Union

2025-02-24Journal article Open access
Simple item page
dc.contributor.authorEllis, John
dc.contributor.authorLázaro, Elena
dc.contributor.authorZarcos Duarte, Beatriz
dc.contributor.authorAbranches de Magalhães, Tomás Thormann
dc.contributor.authorDuarte, Amilcar
dc.contributor.authorBenhadi‐Marín, Jacinto
dc.contributor.authorPereira, José Alberto
dc.contributor.authorVicent, Antonio
dc.contributor.authorParnell, Stephen
dc.contributor.authorCunniffe, Nik J.
dc.date.accessioned2025-03-18T10:14:50Z
dc.date.available2025-03-18T10:14:50Z
dc.date.issued2025-02-24
dc.description.abstractSocietal Impact Statement Huanglongbing (HLB) is a bacterial disease of citrus that has significantly impacted Brazil and the United States, although citrus production in the Mediterranean Basin remains unaffected. By developing a mathematical model of spread in Spain, we tested surveillance and control strategies before any future HLB entry in the EU. We found while some citrus production might be maintained by roguing, this requires extensive surveillance and significant chemical control, perhaps also including testing of psyllids (which spread the pathogen) for bacterial DNA. Our work highlights the key importance of early detection (including asymptomatic infection) and vector control for HLB management. Summary Huanglongbing (HLB; citrus greening) is the most damaging disease of citrus worldwide. While citrus production in the United States and Brazil have been affected for decades, HLB has not been reported in the European Union (EU). However, a HLB vector, the African citrus psyllid, is already in Portugal and Spain. In 2023, the major vector, the Asian citrus psyllid, was first reported in Cyprus. We develop a landscape-scale, epidemiological model, accounting for heterogeneous citrus cultivation and vector dispersal, as well as climate and disease management. We use our model to predict HLB dynamics for an epidemic vectored by the African citrus psyllid in high-density citrus areas in Spain, assessing detection and control strategies. Without disease management, we predict large areas infected within 10-20 years. Even with significant visual surveillance, any epidemic will be widespread on first detection, making eradication unlikely. Nevertheless, increased inspection and roguing following first detection, particularly if coupled with intensive insecticide use, could sustain some citriculture for a decade or more, albeit with reduced production. However, effective control may require chemical application rates and/or active substances no longer authorised in the EU. Strategies targeting asymptomatic infection will be more successful. Detection of bacteriliferous vectors-sometimes possible long before plants show symptoms-could reduce lags before disease management commences. If detection of HLB-positive vectors were followed by intensive insecticide sprays, this may greatly improve outcomes. Our work highlights modelling as a key component of developing epidemiological preparedness for a pathogen invasion that is, at least somewhat, predictable in advance.eng
dc.identifier.doi10.1002/ppp3.10643
dc.identifier.eissn2572-2611
dc.identifier.issn2572-2611
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.1/26918
dc.language.isoeng
dc.peerreviewedyes
dc.publisherWiley
dc.relationPREVENTING HLB EPIDEMICS FOR ENSURING CITRUS SURVIVAL IN EUROPE
dc.relationMediterranean Institute for Agriculture, Environment and Development
dc.relationMountain Research Center
dc.relationMountain Research Center
dc.relation.ispartofPLANTS, PEOPLE, PLANET
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.subjectCandidatus liberibacter
dc.subjectCitrus greening
dc.subjectDiaphorina citri Kuwayama
dc.subjectEarly detection surveillance
dc.subjectHLB (hu & aacute
dc.subjectngl & oacute
dc.subjectngb & igrave
dc.subjectng)
dc.subjectPsyllid
dc.subjectStochastic epidemic model
dc.subjectTrioza erytreae Del Guercio (1918)
dc.titleDeveloping epidemiological preparedness for a plant disease invasion: modelling citrus huánglóngbìng in the European Unioneng
dc.typejournal article
dspace.entity.typePublication
oaire.awardTitlePREVENTING HLB EPIDEMICS FOR ENSURING CITRUS SURVIVAL IN EUROPE
oaire.awardTitleMediterranean Institute for Agriculture, Environment and Development
oaire.awardTitleMountain Research Center
oaire.awardTitleMountain Research Center
oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/817526/EU
oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT/6817 - DCRRNI ID/UIDP%2F05183%2F2020/PT
oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT/6817 - DCRRNI ID/UIDB%2F00690%2F2020/PT
oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT/6817 - DCRRNI ID/UIDP%2F00690%2F2020/PT
oaire.citation.titlePlants, People, Planet
oaire.fundingStreamH2020
oaire.fundingStream6817 - DCRRNI ID
oaire.fundingStream6817 - DCRRNI ID
oaire.fundingStream6817 - DCRRNI ID
oaire.versionhttp://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85
person.familyNameZarcos Duarte
person.familyNameAbranches de Magalhães
person.familyNameDuarte
person.givenNameBeatriz
person.givenNameTomás Thormann
person.givenNameAmilcar
person.identifier.ciencia-idA417-45EC-31A7
person.identifier.ciencia-id491D-8963-1656
person.identifier.ciencia-id081B-5FD8-0E51
person.identifier.orcid0000-0002-6368-1742
person.identifier.orcid0000-0002-2763-1916
person.identifier.ridF-1472-2010
person.identifier.scopus-author-id7102602102
project.funder.identifierhttp://doi.org/10.13039/501100008530
project.funder.identifierhttp://doi.org/10.13039/501100001871
project.funder.identifierhttp://doi.org/10.13039/501100001871
project.funder.identifierhttp://doi.org/10.13039/501100001871
project.funder.nameEuropean Commission
project.funder.nameFundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia
project.funder.nameFundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia
project.funder.nameFundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia
relation.isAuthorOfPublicationaf3bb3c4-8ab7-4ae5-939e-f64a9e68a6d2
relation.isAuthorOfPublication2db67224-d198-47ef-a14c-6beaad92c019
relation.isAuthorOfPublication88280e66-023a-49f6-8081-c827a15900ce
relation.isAuthorOfPublication.latestForDiscoveryaf3bb3c4-8ab7-4ae5-939e-f64a9e68a6d2
relation.isProjectOfPublicationdffa49d8-fd35-4cc0-ada0-2b23a6200de1
relation.isProjectOfPublicationd587eda6-a571-4351-8b0e-27708a4ed29e
relation.isProjectOfPublicationd872fa0d-9096-4930-83a2-383d2f4fcb59
relation.isProjectOfPublication65439abc-71aa-4f37-a7c5-214e5647e9a1
relation.isProjectOfPublication.latestForDiscoverydffa49d8-fd35-4cc0-ada0-2b23a6200de1

Files

Original bundle
Now showing 1 - 1 of 1
Thumbnail Image
Name:
Plants People Planet - 2025 - Ellis - Developing epidemiological preparedness for a plant disease invasion Modelling.pdf
Size:
4.32 MB
Format:
Adobe Portable Document Format
Download
License bundle
Now showing 1 - 1 of 1
No Thumbnail Available
Name:
license.txt
Size:
3.46 KB
Format:
Item-specific license agreed upon to submission
Description:
Download

Collections

FCT2-Artigos (em revistas ou actas indexadas)