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IT-OSRA: applying ensemble simulations to estimate the oil spill risk associated to operational and accidental oil spills

2016-08Journal article Restricted access
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dc.contributor.authorNeves, Antonio Augusto Sepp
dc.contributor.authorPinardi, Nadia
dc.contributor.authorMartins, Flávio Augusto Bastos da Cruz
dc.date.accessioned2017-04-07T15:56:19Z
dc.date.available2017-04-07T15:56:19Z
dc.date.issued2016-08
dc.description.abstractOil Spill Risk Assessments (OSRAs) are widely employed to support decision making regarding oil spill risks. This article adapts the ISO-compliant OSRA framework developed by Sepp Neves et al. (J Environ Manag 159:158-168, 2015) to estimate risks in a complex scenario where uncertainties related to the meteo-oceanographic conditions, where and how a spill could happen exist and the risk computation methodology is not yet well established (ensemble oil spill modeling). The improved method was applied to the Algarve coast, Portugal. Over 50,000 simulations were performed in 2 ensemble experiments to estimate the risks due to operational and accidental spill scenarios associated with maritime traffic. The level of risk was found to be important for both types of scenarios, with significant seasonal variations due to the the currents and waves variability. Higher frequency variability in the meteo-oceanographic variables were also found to contribute to the level of risk. The ensemble results show that the distribution of oil concentrations found on the coast is not Gaussian, opening up new fields of research on how to deal with oil spill risks and related uncertainties.
dc.identifier.doi10.1007/s10236-016-0960-0
dc.identifier.issn1616-7341
dc.identifier.otherAUT: FMA00440;
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.1/9379
dc.language.isoeng
dc.peerreviewedyes
dc.relationOptimizing and Enhancing the Integrated Atlantic Ocean Observing System
dc.relation.isbasedonWOS:000380133000003
dc.titleIT-OSRA: applying ensemble simulations to estimate the oil spill risk associated to operational and accidental oil spills
dc.typejournal article
dspace.entity.typePublication
oaire.awardTitleOptimizing and Enhancing the Integrated Atlantic Ocean Observing System
oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/633211/EU
oaire.citation.endPage954
oaire.citation.issue8
oaire.citation.startPage939
oaire.citation.titleOcean Dynamics
oaire.citation.volume66
oaire.fundingStreamH2020
person.familyNameMartins
person.givenNameFlávio
person.identifier.ciencia-id6711-E990-FFD9
person.identifier.orcid0000-0002-9863-6255
person.identifier.ridU-2673-2018
person.identifier.scopus-author-id7006504350
project.funder.identifierhttp://doi.org/10.13039/501100008530
project.funder.nameEuropean Commission
rcaap.rightsrestrictedAccess
rcaap.typearticle
relation.isAuthorOfPublication1a3bc5b3-6032-43b3-880e-1a551ba84d02
relation.isAuthorOfPublication.latestForDiscovery1a3bc5b3-6032-43b3-880e-1a551ba84d02
relation.isProjectOfPublicationc6f5e603-a81e-47f9-91a1-53df0f73d588
relation.isProjectOfPublication.latestForDiscoveryc6f5e603-a81e-47f9-91a1-53df0f73d588

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