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Impact of climate change on portuguese marine coastal environments

2026-05-30Artigo científico Acesso aberto
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datacite.subject.sdg13:Ação Climática
datacite.subject.sdg14:Proteger a Vida Marinha
datacite.subject.sdg11:Cidades e Comunidades Sustentáveis
dc.contributor.authorPinto, Miguel
dc.contributor.authorBueno-Pardo, Juan
dc.contributor.authorMarta-Almeida, Martinho
dc.contributor.authorLeitão, Francisco
dc.date.accessioned2026-07-09T09:54:05Z
dc.date.available2026-07-09T09:54:05Z
dc.date.issued2026-05-30
dc.description.abstractThe potential impacts of climate change on marine habitats were assessed using RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 projections of environmental parameters that included sea surface temperature (SST), pH, salinity, planktonic productivity (PP) and current strength (CS). The analysis was conducted separately for three distinct oceanographic regions of the Portuguese coastline (North, Centre and South) up to the middle of the century. Temporal trends in environmental variables were assessed using time series analyses. Overall, changes expected up to the middle of the century include increasing SST and PP, decreasing pH and salinity, and slight increases in CS. Spatial–temporal analyses revealed high present–future environmental overlay for most environmental variables. However, changes in individual environmental variables cumulatively resulted in statistically significant changes in environmental similarity. Still, the projected changes are not expected to exceed ecological thresholds, above which they would be likely to alter species’ habitat suitability or to result in species distribution shifts. Anomaly analyses suggest that present–future shifts do not surpass 1/5 (pH, PP, CS) or 2/3 (salinity) of the unit, regardless of projection and area, while SST anomalies ranged from −1.1 °C to 1.1 °C. Compared to IPCC large-scale predictions for Atlantic/Mediterranean regions, the intensity of shifts on the Portuguese coast may be lower.eng
dc.description.sponsorshipUID/04326/2025; UID/PRR/04326/2025; DL57/2016/CP1361/CT0008 and 2022.04803.CEECIND; SFRH/BD/11426/2022; EU Horizon 2020 HORIZON-CL6-2021-BIODIV-01-04 agreement No 101060072 “ACTNOW”.
dc.identifier.doi10.3390/w18111326
dc.identifier.issn2073-4441
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.1/29243
dc.language.isoeng
dc.peerreviewedyes
dc.publisherMDPI
dc.relationCentre for Marine and Environmental Research
dc.relation.ispartofWater
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.subjectIberian coast
dc.subjectEnvironmental trends
dc.subjectAnomalies
dc.subjectTime series
dc.subjectClimate projections
dc.subjectEcosystem dynamics
dc.subjectHabitat shifts
dc.titleImpact of climate change on portuguese marine coastal environmentseng
dc.typejournal article
dspace.entity.typePublication
oaire.awardNumberLA/P/0101/2020
oaire.awardTitleCentre for Marine and Environmental Research
oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT/6817 - DCRRNI ID/LA%2FP%2F0101%2F2020/PT
oaire.citation.issue11
oaire.citation.startPage1326
oaire.citation.titleWater
oaire.citation.volume18
oaire.fundingStream6817 - DCRRNI ID
oaire.versionhttp://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85
person.familyNamePinto
person.familyNameLeitão
person.givenNameMiguel
person.givenNameFrancisco
person.identifier620214
person.identifier.ciencia-id2E1D-9AB5-4D88
person.identifier.ciencia-id3E1C-DBC2-42D5
person.identifier.orcid0000-0003-4472-3238
person.identifier.orcid0000-0003-4983-9782
person.identifier.ridM-3980-2013
person.identifier.scopus-author-id57223986133
person.identifier.scopus-author-id7003991946
project.funder.identifierhttp://doi.org/10.13039/501100001871
project.funder.nameFundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia
relation.isAuthorOfPublication2472781b-620d-45b2-8ebe-a40b15ec9d5b
relation.isAuthorOfPublicationb138ce56-d033-450e-98a4-2bcb19f4a34e
relation.isAuthorOfPublication.latestForDiscovery2472781b-620d-45b2-8ebe-a40b15ec9d5b
relation.isProjectOfPublication794d4c77-c731-471e-bc96-5a41dcd3d872
relation.isProjectOfPublication.latestForDiscovery794d4c77-c731-471e-bc96-5a41dcd3d872

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