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Reshuffling of azorean coastal marine biodiversity amid climate change

2024-09-13Journal article Open access
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dc.contributor.authorGonzález‐Trujillo, Juan David
dc.contributor.authorNaimi, Babak
dc.contributor.authorAssis, Jorge
dc.contributor.authorAraújo, Miguel B
dc.date.accessioned2024-10-22T09:00:51Z
dc.date.available2024-10-22T09:00:51Z
dc.date.issued2024-09-13
dc.description.abstractClimate change poses a challenge to the Azores' biodiversity, with consequences that remain unexplored. To shed light on the potential impacts of climate change, we have developed a large ensemble of species distribution models (SDMs) for species found in the coastal marine environments and examined their spatiotemporal turnover and stability. Location: The Azorean archipelago. Taxon: Coastal marine species (mammals, fish, turtles, seabirds, kelp forest and corals). Methods: SDMs were fitted a large ensemble comprising 10 machine learning algorithms and a fivefold cross- validation resampling procedure, thus yielding a maximum number of 50 models fitted per species. These models were then utilised for projecting species distribution under different future scenarios. The projected distributions of the species were employed to assess changes in the stability of their ranges throughout the entire modelled period (2030-2100) and in their community compositions by examining changes in alpha diversity and beta diversity over 10- year periods. Results: We show that under our model assumptions over 12% of the modelled units could lose suitable climate by the end of the century, with this number increasing up to 25% under a high carbon emissions scenario. Climate change refugia, which are areas of long- term species range stability, are expected to be mainly located in the coastal areas in the northernmost part of the archipelago. A substantial loss of suitable climate is anticipated for mammals and birds, which is likely to trigger a major loss of species on the islands of Santa Maria, S & atilde;o Miguel, Pico and Faial. For fish, the loss of suitable climates is less pronounced. However, climate change is expected to cause a major reshuffling of the pelagic fish assemblage, with important consequences for local fisheries on each island. Main Conclusions: Our models provide insights into how climate change may alter the distribution of Azorean marine coastal species, offering important guidance for conservation and management efforts in these important North Atlantic ecosystems.eng
dc.description.sponsorshipPTDC/BIA-CBI/6515/2020
dc.identifier.doi10.1111/jbi.15008
dc.identifier.eissn1365-2699
dc.identifier.issn0305-0270
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.1/26121
dc.language.isoeng
dc.peerreviewedyes
dc.publisherWiley
dc.relationAlgarve Centre for Marine Sciences
dc.relationClimate-informed prioritization of marine biodiversity hotspots to support the implementation of the post-2020 biodiversity framework
dc.relation.ispartofJournal of Biogeography
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.subjectClimate change refugia
dc.subjectMarine biodiversity
dc.subjectNorth Atlantic
dc.subjectSpecies distributions models
dc.subjectTemporal turnover
dc.titleReshuffling of azorean coastal marine biodiversity amid climate changeeng
dc.typejournal article
dspace.entity.typePublication
oaire.awardTitleAlgarve Centre for Marine Sciences
oaire.awardTitleClimate-informed prioritization of marine biodiversity hotspots to support the implementation of the post-2020 biodiversity framework
oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT/6817 - DCRRNI ID/UIDB%2F04326%2F2020/PT
oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT/CEEC IND5ed/2022.00861.CEECIND%2FCP1729%2FCT0003/PT
oaire.citation.startPage1
oaire.citation.titleJournal of Biogeography
oaire.fundingStream6817 - DCRRNI ID
oaire.fundingStreamCEEC IND5ed
oaire.versionhttp://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85
person.familyNameAssis
person.givenNameJorge
person.identifier.ciencia-id5C1D-05B6-29F7
person.identifier.orcid0000-0002-6624-4820
person.identifier.ridG-9688-2012
person.identifier.scopus-author-id53463298700
project.funder.identifierhttp://doi.org/10.13039/501100001871
project.funder.identifierhttp://doi.org/10.13039/501100001871
project.funder.nameFundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia
project.funder.nameFundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia
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