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Warming threatens to propel the expansion of the exotic seagrass Halophila stipulacea

2021-12Journal article Open access
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dc.contributor.authorWesselmann, Marlene
dc.contributor.authorChefaoui, Rosa M.
dc.contributor.authorMarbà, Núria
dc.contributor.authorSerrao, Ester
dc.contributor.authorDuarte, Carlos M.
dc.date.accessioned2022-01-10T11:25:27Z
dc.date.available2022-01-10T11:25:27Z
dc.date.issued2021-12
dc.description.abstractThe spread of exotic species to new areas can be magnified when favored by future climatic conditions. Forecasting future ranges using species distribution models (SDMs) could be improved by considering physiological thresholds, because models solely based on occurrence data cannot account for plasticity due to acclimation of individuals to local conditions over their life-time or to adaptation due to selection within local populations. This is particularly relevant for the exotic seagrass Halophila stipulacea, which colonized the Mediterranean Sea a century ago and shifted its thermal niche, coping with a colder regime. Here, we used two hybrid models combining correlative SDMs with the thermal limits for growth of native and exotic H. stipulacea populations to predict the distribution of the species in its native (Indian Ocean and Red Sea) and exotic ranges (Mediterranean Sea and Caribbean Sea) under two scenarios forecasting limited (RCP 2.6) and severe (RCP 8.5) future climate changes by 2050 and 2100. Then, we assessed the differences between hybrid models based on native Red Sea thermal limits (niche conservatism: 17–36◦C) and on exotic Mediterranean thermal limits (local adaptation: 14–36◦C). At the Mediterranean exotic range, the local adaptation hybrid model accurately agreed with the present distribution of the species while the niche conservatism-based hybrid model failed to predict 87% of the current occurrences of the species. By contrast, both hybrid models predicted similar species distributions for the native range and exotic Caribbean range at present and projected that H. stipulacea will maintain its current worldwide under all future greenhouse gas emission scenarios. The hybrid model based on Mediterranean thermal limits projected the expansion of H. stipulacea through the western Mediterranean basin (except the gulf of Leon) under the most severe scenario (RCP 8.5) by 2100, increasing its distribution by 50% in the Mediterranean. The future expansion of H. stipulacea is related to its capacity to cope with warm waters and it may become a relevant species in the future, particularly under the projected decline of native Mediterranean seagrasses, resulting in important shifts in seagrass communities and overall ecosystem functions.pt_PT
dc.description.sponsorshipBIODATA.PT ALG-01-0145-FEDER-022231; EMBRC.PT ALG-01-0145-FEDER-022121
dc.description.versioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionpt_PT
dc.identifier.doi10.3389/fmars.2021.759676pt_PT
dc.identifier.eissn2296-7745
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.1/17452
dc.language.isoengpt_PT
dc.peerreviewedyespt_PT
dc.publisherFrontiers Media SApt_PT
dc.relationAlgarve Centre for Marine Sciences
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/pt_PT
dc.subjectNon-nativept_PT
dc.subjectSeagrasspt_PT
dc.subjectSpecies distribution model (SDM)pt_PT
dc.subjectPhysiological limitspt_PT
dc.subjectTemperaturept_PT
dc.subjectMediterranean Seapt_PT
dc.subjectRed Seapt_PT
dc.subjectCaribbean Seapt_PT
dc.titleWarming threatens to propel the expansion of the exotic seagrass Halophila stipulaceapt_PT
dc.title.alternativeAquecimento ameaça impulsionar a expansão da exótica erva-marinha Halophila stipulaceapt_PT
dc.typejournal article
dspace.entity.typePublication
oaire.awardTitleAlgarve Centre for Marine Sciences
oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT/6817 - DCRRNI ID/UIDB%2F04326%2F2020/PT
oaire.citation.titleFrontiers in Marine Sciencept_PT
oaire.citation.volume8pt_PT
oaire.fundingStream6817 - DCRRNI ID
person.familyNameChefaoui
person.familyNameSerrao
person.givenNameRosa
person.givenNameEster A.
person.identifierC-6686-2012
person.identifier.ciencia-id5B13-B26E-B1EC
person.identifier.orcid0000-0001-5031-4858
person.identifier.orcid0000-0003-1316-658X
person.identifier.ridD-3906-2009
person.identifier.scopus-author-id8636216500
person.identifier.scopus-author-id7004093604
project.funder.identifierhttp://doi.org/10.13039/501100001871
project.funder.nameFundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia
rcaap.rightsopenAccesspt_PT
rcaap.typearticlept_PT
relation.isAuthorOfPublicationb42b598d-1235-47a0-803c-9226c3c63173
relation.isAuthorOfPublication45ccfe90-155c-4d6f-9e86-8f0fd064005f
relation.isAuthorOfPublication.latestForDiscoveryb42b598d-1235-47a0-803c-9226c3c63173
relation.isProjectOfPublicationfafa76a6-2cd2-4a6d-a3c9-772f34d3b91f
relation.isProjectOfPublication.latestForDiscoveryfafa76a6-2cd2-4a6d-a3c9-772f34d3b91f

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