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Global impacts of projected climate changes on the extent and aboveground biomass of mangrove forests

2022Journal article Open Access
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dc.contributor.authorGouvêa, Lidiane
dc.contributor.authorA, Serrão
dc.contributor.authorCavanaugh, Kyle
dc.contributor.authorGurgel, Carlos F. D.
dc.contributor.authorHorta, Paulo A.
dc.contributor.authorAssis, Jorge
dc.date.accessioned2023-01-10T13:56:20Z
dc.date.available2023-01-10T13:56:20Z
dc.date.issued2022
dc.description.abstractAim: Over the past 50 years, anthropogenic activities have led to the disappearance of approximately one-third of the world's mangrove forests and their associated ecosystem services. The synergetic combined effect of projected climate change is likely to further impact mangroves in the years to come, whether by range expansions associated with warming at higher latitudes or large-scale diebacks linked to severe droughts. We provide an estimate of future changes in the extent and aboveground biomass (AGB) of mangrove forests at global scales by considering contrasting Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (decade 2090-2100 under RCP 2.6 in line with the Paris Agreement expectations, and RCP 8.5 of higher emissions). Location: Global. Methods: Boosted regression trees fitted occurrence and AGB of mangroves against high-resolution biologically meaningful data on air temperature, precipitation, wave energy, slope and distance to river Deltas. Results: On the global scale, models produced for present-day conditions retrieved high accuracy scores and estimated a total area of 12,780,356 ha and overall biomass of 2.29 Pg, in line with previous estimates. Model projections showed poleward shifts along temperate regions, which translated into comparable gains in total area, regardless of the RCP scenario (area change RCP 2.6: 17.29%; RCP 8.5: 15.77%). However, biomass changes were dependent on the emission scenario considered, remaining stable or even increasing under RCP 2.6, or undergoing severe losses across tropical regions under RCP 8.5 (overall biomass change RCP 2.6: 12.97%; RCP 8.5: -11.51%). Such losses were particularly aggravated in countries located in the Tropical Atlantic and Eastern Pacific, and the Western and Eastern Indo-Pacific regions (regions with losses above similar to 20% in overall biomass). Conclusions: Our global estimates highlight the potential effect of future climate changes on mangrove forests and how broad compliance with the Paris Agreement may counteract severe trajectories of loss. The projections made, also provided at the country level, serve as new baselines to evaluate changes in mangrove carbon sequestration and ecosystem services, strongly supporting policy-making and management directives, as well as to guide restoration actions considering potential future changes in niche availability.pt_PT
dc.description.sponsorshipPQ-309658/2016-0
dc.description.sponsorshipCNPq-PVE 306304/2019-8
dc.description.sponsorshipCNPq-Universal 426215/2016-8
dc.description.sponsorshipCAPES-PrInt310793/2018-01
dc.description.versioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionpt_PT
dc.identifier.doi10.1111/ddi.13631pt_PT
dc.identifier.eissn1472-4642
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.1/18781
dc.language.isoengpt_PT
dc.peerreviewedyespt_PT
dc.publisherWileypt_PT
dc.relationAlgarve Centre for Marine Sciences
dc.relationAlgarve Centre for Marine Sciences
dc.relationPotential consequences of future climate changes for marine forest gene pools
dc.relationHotspots de biodiversidade genética em florestas marinhas
dc.relationCentre for Marine and Environmental Research
dc.relationNot Available
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/pt_PT
dc.subjectAboveground biomasspt_PT
dc.subjectBoosted regression treespt_PT
dc.subjectClimate changept_PT
dc.subjectMangrove forestspt_PT
dc.subjectParis agreementpt_PT
dc.subjectRepresentative concentration pathwayspt_PT
dc.titleGlobal impacts of projected climate changes on the extent and aboveground biomass of mangrove forestspt_PT
dc.typejournal article
dspace.entity.typePublication
oaire.awardTitleAlgarve Centre for Marine Sciences
oaire.awardTitleAlgarve Centre for Marine Sciences
oaire.awardTitlePotential consequences of future climate changes for marine forest gene pools
oaire.awardTitleHotspots de biodiversidade genética em florestas marinhas
oaire.awardTitleCentre for Marine and Environmental Research
oaire.awardTitleNot Available
oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT/3599-PPCDT/PTDC%2FBIA-CBI%2F6515%2F2020/PT
oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT/6817 - DCRRNI ID/UIDP%2F04326%2F2020/PT
oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT/6817 - DCRRNI ID/UIDB%2F04326%2F2020/PT
oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT/OE/SFRH%2FBD%2F144878%2F2019/PT
oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT/OE/SFRH%2FBSAB%2F150485%2F2019/PT
oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT/6817 - DCRRNI ID/LA%2FP%2F0101%2F2020/PT
oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT/DL 57%2F2016/DL 57%2F2016%2FCP1361%2FCT0035/PT
oaire.citation.endPage2360pt_PT
oaire.citation.issue11pt_PT
oaire.citation.startPage2349pt_PT
oaire.citation.titleDiversity and Distributionspt_PT
oaire.citation.volume28pt_PT
oaire.fundingStream3599-PPCDT
oaire.fundingStream6817 - DCRRNI ID
oaire.fundingStream6817 - DCRRNI ID
oaire.fundingStreamOE
oaire.fundingStreamOE
oaire.fundingStream6817 - DCRRNI ID
oaire.fundingStreamDL 57/2016
person.familyNameGouvêa
person.familyNameSerrao
person.familyNameAssis
person.givenNameLidiane
person.givenNameEster A.
person.givenNameJorge
person.identifierC-6686-2012
person.identifier.ciencia-idB511-30C7-FD3D
person.identifier.ciencia-id5B13-B26E-B1EC
person.identifier.ciencia-id5C1D-05B6-29F7
person.identifier.orcid0000-0001-7010-5500
person.identifier.orcid0000-0003-1316-658X
person.identifier.orcid0000-0002-6624-4820
person.identifier.ridG-9688-2012
person.identifier.scopus-author-id55500349800
person.identifier.scopus-author-id7004093604
person.identifier.scopus-author-id53463298700
project.funder.identifierhttp://doi.org/10.13039/501100001871
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project.funder.nameFundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia
project.funder.nameFundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia
project.funder.nameFundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia
project.funder.nameFundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia
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project.funder.nameFundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia
project.funder.nameFundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia
rcaap.rightsopenAccesspt_PT
rcaap.typearticlept_PT
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