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Major shifts at the range edge of marine forests: the combined effects of climate changes and limited dispersal

2017-03Journal article Open access
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dc.contributor.authorAssis, J.
dc.contributor.authorBerecibar, E.
dc.contributor.authorClaro, B.
dc.contributor.authorAlberto, F.
dc.contributor.authorReed, D.
dc.contributor.authorRaimondi, P.
dc.contributor.authorA, Serrão
dc.date.accessioned2018-12-07T14:53:38Z
dc.date.available2018-12-07T14:53:38Z
dc.date.issued2017-03
dc.description.abstractGlobal climate change is likely to constrain low latitude range edges across many taxa and habitats. Such is the case for NE Atlantic marine macroalgal forests, important ecosystems whose main structuring species is the annual kelp Saccorhiza polyschides. We coupled ecological niche modelling with simulations of potential dispersal and delayed development stages to infer the major forces shaping range edges and to predict their dynamics. Models indicated that the southern limit is set by high winter temperatures above the physiological tolerance of overwintering microscopic stages and reduced upwelling during recruitment. The best range predictions were achieved assuming low spatial dispersal (5 km) and delayed stages up to two years (temporal dispersal). Reconstructing distributions through time indicated losses of similar to 30% from 1986 to 2014, restricting S. polyschides to upwelling regions at the southern edge. Future predictions further restrict populations to a unique refugium in northwestern Iberia. Losses were dependent on the emissions scenario, with the most drastic one shifting similar to 38% of the current distribution by 2100. Such distributional changes might not be rescued by dispersal in space or time (as shown for the recent past) and are expected to drive major biodiversity loss and changes in ecosystem functioning.
dc.identifier.doi10.1038/srep44348
dc.identifier.issn2045-2322
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.1/11612
dc.language.isoeng
dc.peerreviewedyes
dc.publisherNature Publishing Group
dc.relationExtant or extinct tipping points - climate changes drive genetic diversity and dynamics of range edge populations as evolutionary hotspots
dc.relationGlobal climate changes driving genetic diversity of marine forests
dc.subjectMacrocystis-Pyrifera Phaeophyceae
dc.subjectSaccorhiza-Polyschides
dc.subjectEnvironmental Controls
dc.subjectDistributional Shifts
dc.subjectSpecies Distribution
dc.subjectDistribution Models
dc.subjectKelp Forests
dc.subjectBiodiversity
dc.subjectPerformance
dc.subjectEcosystems
dc.titleMajor shifts at the range edge of marine forests: the combined effects of climate changes and limited dispersal
dc.typejournal article
dspace.entity.typePublication
oaire.awardTitleExtant or extinct tipping points - climate changes drive genetic diversity and dynamics of range edge populations as evolutionary hotspots
oaire.awardTitleGlobal climate changes driving genetic diversity of marine forests
oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT/3599-PPCDT/PTDC%2FMAR-EST%2F6053%2F2014/PT
oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT/3599-PPCDT/EXCL%2FAAG-GLO%2F0661%2F2012/PT
oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT//SFRH%2FBPD%2F111003%2F2015/PT
oaire.citation.startPage44348
oaire.citation.titleScientific Reports
oaire.citation.volume7
oaire.fundingStream3599-PPCDT
oaire.fundingStream3599-PPCDT
person.familyNameAssis
person.familyNameAlberto
person.familyNameSerrao
person.givenNameJorge
person.givenNameFilipe
person.givenNameEster A.
person.identifier1488456
person.identifierC-6686-2012
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person.identifier.orcid0000-0002-6624-4820
person.identifier.orcid0000-0003-0593-3240
person.identifier.orcid0000-0003-1316-658X
person.identifier.ridG-9688-2012
person.identifier.scopus-author-id53463298700
person.identifier.scopus-author-id6701653422
person.identifier.scopus-author-id7004093604
project.funder.identifierhttp://doi.org/10.13039/501100001871
project.funder.identifierhttp://doi.org/10.13039/501100001871
project.funder.identifierhttp://doi.org/10.13039/501100001871
project.funder.nameFundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia
project.funder.nameFundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia
project.funder.nameFundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia
rcaap.rightsopenAccess
rcaap.typearticle
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