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Are shifts in species distribution triggered by climate change? A swordfish case study

2020Journal article Restricted access
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dc.contributor.authorErauskin-Extramiana, Maite
dc.contributor.authorArrizabalaga, Haritz
dc.contributor.authorCabré, Anna
dc.contributor.authorCoelho, Rui
dc.contributor.authorRosa, Daniela
dc.contributor.authorIbaibarriaga, Leire
dc.contributor.authorChust, Guillem
dc.date.accessioned2020-08-06T08:53:02Z
dc.date.available2020-08-06T08:53:02Z
dc.date.issued2020
dc.description.abstractSpecies shifts due to climate change are being recorded and reported worldwide. However, the accurate estimation and causal attribution of species shifts using spatial distribution indicators, such as the center of gravity, is challenging. This is particularly problematic for commercially exploited marine species with data from research surveys, commercial fisheries or other data collection methods that are not recorded homogeneously over time and space. Here, we propose a new framework to ascertain whether the changes in the spatial distribution of species are due to changes in habitat conditions, fishing activity or other factors. This approach is developed to help elucidate the main drivers of species shifts and it is based upon the comparison of historical trends in species distribution shifts among raw data and modeled: i) fishing effort, ii) population occurrence and abundance, iii) habitat, and iv) spatio-temporal reconstruction of the species distribution. We apply this new methodology to the case study of swordfish populations worldwide. On a global scale, 2 out of 6 stocks of swordfish shifted latitudinally during 1958–2004. Of those two, only the Mediterranean stock was associated with a linear trend change of its habitat. In two other stocks, the latitudinal center of gravity of populations occurrence varies following their habitats’ interannual variability; however, this shift is not linear. We further developed a worldwide habitat suitability model for swordfish and projected its distribution and abundance into the future under the RCP8.5 climate change scenario, the highest greenhouse gas concentration scenario, by the end of the century. Future projections estimate an overall swordfish decrease of 22% in CPUE (catch per unit of effort), with substantial decreases in most tropical areas, and a slight increase in its distribution range limits, both in the north and southern hemispheres.pt_PT
dc.description.sponsorshipBasque Government (Department Deputy of Agriculture, Fishing, and Food Policy). World Climate Research Programme’s Working Group on Coupled Modeling, which is responsible for CMIP, ‘‘Beatriu de Pinos’’ fellowship and the program Marie Curie Actions COFUND of the 7th Framework Program for Research and Technological Development of the European Union. FCT contract (Ref: IF/00253/2014) from FCT, the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology. Ph.D. grant from FCT (Ref: SFRH/BD/136074/2018). TCLIOTOP program.pt_PT
dc.description.versioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionpt_PT
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.dsr2.2019.104666pt_PT
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.1/14611
dc.language.isoengpt_PT
dc.peerreviewedyespt_PT
dc.publisherElsevierpt_PT
dc.subjectClimate changept_PT
dc.subjectSwordfishpt_PT
dc.subjectSpecies distribution modelpt_PT
dc.subjectCenter of gravitypt_PT
dc.subjectFuture projectionspt_PT
dc.subjectSampling biaspt_PT
dc.subjectFrameworkpt_PT
dc.titleAre shifts in species distribution triggered by climate change? A swordfish case studypt_PT
dc.typejournal article
dspace.entity.typePublication
oaire.citation.startPage104666pt_PT
oaire.citation.titleDeep Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Oceanographypt_PT
oaire.citation.volume175pt_PT
person.familyNameCoelho
person.familyNameRosa
person.givenNameRui
person.givenNameDaniela
person.identifier134638
person.identifier.ciencia-idDC1A-20B7-EAC0
person.identifier.orcid0000-0003-3813-5157
person.identifier.orcid0000-0001-7156-7408
person.identifier.ridC-1163-2008
person.identifier.scopus-author-id56257111100
rcaap.rightsrestrictedAccesspt_PT
rcaap.typearticlept_PT
relation.isAuthorOfPublication6366aa1b-1301-43a3-b2b0-1280311ac95f
relation.isAuthorOfPublicationa9de9fd6-e33b-4a43-b9fb-3b9cb4cdd433
relation.isAuthorOfPublication.latestForDiscovery6366aa1b-1301-43a3-b2b0-1280311ac95f

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