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Advisor(s)
Abstract(s)
Predicted changes in climate will lead to seawater
intrusion in the Querença-Silves (QS) coastal aquifer (south
Portugal) during the coming century if the current waterresource-management
strategy is maintained. As for much of
the Mediterranean, average rainfall is predicted to decrease
along with increasing seasonal and inter-annual variability
and there is a need to understand how these changes will affect
the sustainable use of groundwater resources. A densitycoupled
flow and transport model of the QS was used to simulate
an ensemble of climate, water-use and adaptation scenarios
from 2010 to 2099 taking into account intra- and interannual
variability in recharge and groundwater use. By considering
several climate models, bias correction and recharge
calculation methods, a degree of uncertainty was included.
Changes in rainfall regimes will have an immediate effect on
groundwater discharge; however, the effect on saltwater intrusion
is attenuated by the freshwater–saltwater interfaces’ comparatively
slow rate of movement. Comparing the effects of
adaptation measures demonstrates that the extent of intrusion
in the QS is controlled by the long-term water budget, as the
effectiveness of both demand and supply oriented measures is
proportional to the change in water budget, and that to maintain
the current position, average groundwater discharge
should be in the order of 50 × 106 m3 yr−1.
Description
Keywords
Numerical modelling Salt-water/freshwater relations Coastal aquifers Portugal Resource management
Citation
Publisher
Springer Verlag