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Future climate change is predicted to shift long-term persistence zones in the cold-temperate kelp Laminaria hyperborea

2016-02Journal article Restricted access
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dc.contributor.authorAssis, J.
dc.contributor.authorLucas, Ana Vaz
dc.contributor.authorBárbara, Ignacio
dc.contributor.authorSerrão, Ester
dc.date.accessioned2017-04-07T15:57:14Z
dc.date.available2017-04-07T15:57:14Z
dc.date.issued2016-02
dc.description.abstractGlobal climate change is shifting species distributions worldwide. At rear edges (warmer, low latitude range margins), the consequences of small variations in environmental conditions can be magnified, producing large negative effects on species ranges. A major outcome of shifts in distributions that only recently received attention is the potential to reduce the levels of intra-specific diversity and consequently the global evolutionary and adaptive capacity of species to face novel disturbances. This is particularly important for low dispersal marine species, such as kelps, that generally retain high and unique genetic diversity at rear ranges resulting from long-term persistence, while ranges shifts during climatic glacial/interglacial cycles. Using ecological niche modelling, we (1) infer the major environmental forces shaping the distribution of a cold-temperate kelp, Laminaria hyperborea (Gunnerus) Foslie, and we (2) predict the effect of past climate changes in shaping regions of long-term persistence (i.e., climatic refugia), where this species might hypothetically harbour higher genetic diversity given the absence of bottlenecks and local extinctions over the long term. We further (3) assessed the consequences of future climate for the fate of L. hyperborea using different scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5). Results show NW Iberia, SW Ireland and W English Channel, Faroe Islands and S Iceland, as regions where L. hyperborea may have persisted during past climate extremes until present day. All predictions for the future showed expansions to northern territories coupled with the significant loss of suitable habitats at low latitude range margins, where long-term persistence was inferred (e.g., NW Iberia). This pattern was particularly evident in the most agressive scenario of climate change (RCP 8.5), likely driving major biodiversity loss, changes in ecosystem functioning and the impoverishment of the global gene pool of L. hyperborea. Because no genetic baseline is currently available for this species, our results may represent a first step in informing conservation and mitigation strategies. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
dc.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.marenvres.2015.11.005
dc.identifier.issn0141-1136
dc.identifier.otherAUT: ESE00527;
dc.identifier.othereserrao@ualg.pt
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.1/9651
dc.language.isoeng
dc.peerreviewedyes
dc.publisherElsevier
dc.relationExtant or extinct tipping points - climate changes drive genetic diversity and dynamics of range edge populations as evolutionary hotspots
dc.relationGlobal climate changes driving genetic diversity of marine forests
dc.relation.isbasedonWOS:000368951800020
dc.subjectClimate change
dc.subjectEcologial niche modelling
dc.subjectRange shifts
dc.subjectLocal persistence
dc.subjectPhylogeography
dc.subjectLaminaria hyperborea
dc.titleFuture climate change is predicted to shift long-term persistence zones in the cold-temperate kelp Laminaria hyperborea
dc.typejournal article
dspace.entity.typePublication
oaire.awardTitleExtant or extinct tipping points - climate changes drive genetic diversity and dynamics of range edge populations as evolutionary hotspots
oaire.awardTitleGlobal climate changes driving genetic diversity of marine forests
oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT/3599-PPCDT/EXCL%2FAAG-GLO%2F0661%2F2012/PT
oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT/3599-PPCDT/PTDC%2FMAR-EST%2F6053%2F2014/PT
oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT//SFRH%2FBPD%2F111003%2F2015/PT
oaire.citation.endPage182
oaire.citation.startPage174
oaire.citation.titleMarine Environmental Research
oaire.citation.volume113
oaire.fundingStream3599-PPCDT
oaire.fundingStream3599-PPCDT
person.familyNameAssis
person.familyNameSerrao
person.givenNameJorge
person.givenNameEster A.
person.identifierC-6686-2012
person.identifier.ciencia-id5C1D-05B6-29F7
person.identifier.ciencia-id5B13-B26E-B1EC
person.identifier.orcid0000-0002-6624-4820
person.identifier.orcid0000-0003-1316-658X
person.identifier.ridG-9688-2012
person.identifier.scopus-author-id53463298700
person.identifier.scopus-author-id7004093604
project.funder.identifierhttp://doi.org/10.13039/501100001871
project.funder.identifierhttp://doi.org/10.13039/501100001871
project.funder.identifierhttp://doi.org/10.13039/501100001871
project.funder.nameFundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia
project.funder.nameFundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia
project.funder.nameFundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia
rcaap.rightsrestrictedAccess
rcaap.typearticle
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