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Global cold‐water coral biodiversity redistribution under projected climate change

2025-10Artigo científico Acesso aberto
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datacite.subject.sdg14:Proteger a Vida Marinha
datacite.subject.sdg13:Ação Climática
datacite.subject.sdg12:Produção e Consumo Sustentáveis
dc.contributor.authorFragkopoulou, Eliza
dc.contributor.authorGouvêa, Lidiane
dc.contributor.authorBalogh, Viktória
dc.contributor.authorSerrao, Ester A.
dc.contributor.authorAssis, Jorge
dc.date.accessioned2026-03-18T11:05:21Z
dc.date.available2026-03-18T11:05:21Z
dc.date.issued2025-10
dc.description.abstractCold-water corals (CWCs) are key ecosystem-structuring species across the world's oceans, yet their global distribution, diversity patterns, and vulnerability to climate change remain poorly understood. Here, we delineated the global biogeography of CWCs and assessed how their biodiversity patterns may shift under future climate change scenarios. Using an ensemble of machine-learning models, we predicted the distributions of 741 CWC species, spanning Octocoralia, Scleractinia, Antipatharia, Zoanthidae, Pennatulacea, and Filifera, under present-day conditions and forecasted changes in species richness, community composition, and climate refugia under two contrasting Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1-1.9 and SSP3-7.0). Further, we identified biogeographic regions based on species co-occurrence patterns and statistically validated them. Our results showed major biodiversity hotspots in the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea, and delineated ten distinct bioregions, each with varying species richness, depth distribution patterns, and generally low levels of endemicity. While the global extent of the CWC biome may persist in the future, we forecasted pronounced poleward and depth shifts in species distributions, particularly under high-emission scenarios, resulting in biodiversity losses in shallow and low-latitude regions and increased community turnover. Our findings highlight the growing threat of climate change to CWC biodiversity and deep-sea ecosystems and the need for urgent climate action, aligned with the Paris Agreement. By identifying biodiversity hotspots, emerging climate refugia, and regions at greatest risk, this study offers a global framework to inform conservation priorities and support efforts to safeguard CWC biodiversity in the long term.eng
dc.description.sponsorshipUID/04326/2025; UID/PRR/04326/2025; HORIZON-CL6-2021-BIODIV-01-12
dc.identifier.doi10.1111/gcb.70563
dc.identifier.eissn1365-2486
dc.identifier.issn1354-1013
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.1/28462
dc.language.isoeng
dc.peerreviewedyes
dc.publisherWiley
dc.relationCentre for Marine and Environmental Research
dc.relationMarine Forests of animals, plants and algae: nature-based tools to protect and restore biodiversity
dc.relation.ispartofGlobal Change Biology
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.subjectBiodiversity
dc.subjectBioregionalization
dc.subjectClimate change
dc.subjectCold-water corals
dc.subjectRange shifts
dc.subjectSpecies distribution modelling
dc.subjectSpecies richness
dc.titleGlobal cold‐water coral biodiversity redistribution under projected climate changeeng
dc.typejournal article
dspace.entity.typePublication
oaire.awardNumberLA/P/0101/2020
oaire.awardNumberDivRestore/0013/2020
oaire.awardTitleCentre for Marine and Environmental Research
oaire.awardTitleMarine Forests of animals, plants and algae: nature-based tools to protect and restore biodiversity
oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT/6817 - DCRRNI ID/LA%2FP%2F0101%2F2020/PT
oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT/3599-PPCDT/DivRestore%2F0013%2F2020/PT
oaire.citation.issue10
oaire.citation.startPagee70563
oaire.citation.titleGlobal Change Biology
oaire.citation.volume31
oaire.fundingStream6817 - DCRRNI ID
oaire.fundingStream3599-PPCDT
oaire.versionhttp://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85
person.familyNameFragkopoulou
person.familyNameGouvêa
person.familyNameBalogh
person.familyNameSerrao
person.familyNameAssis
person.givenNameEliza
person.givenNameLidiane
person.givenNameViktória
person.givenNameEster A.
person.givenNameJorge
person.identifierC-6686-2012
person.identifier.ciencia-id5B1F-9922-2CB5
person.identifier.ciencia-idB511-30C7-FD3D
person.identifier.ciencia-id5B13-B26E-B1EC
person.identifier.ciencia-id5C1D-05B6-29F7
person.identifier.orcid0000-0002-0557-3954
person.identifier.orcid0000-0001-7010-5500
person.identifier.orcid0000-0002-4383-7025
person.identifier.orcid0000-0003-1316-658X
person.identifier.orcid0000-0002-6624-4820
person.identifier.ridG-9688-2012
person.identifier.scopus-author-id55500349800
person.identifier.scopus-author-id7004093604
person.identifier.scopus-author-id53463298700
project.funder.identifierhttp://doi.org/10.13039/501100001871
project.funder.identifierhttp://doi.org/10.13039/501100001871
project.funder.nameFundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia
project.funder.nameFundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia
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