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Publication
Evolving RBF predictive models to forecast the Portuguese electricity consumption
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Advisor(s)
Abstract(s)
The Portuguese power grid company wants to improve the accuracy of the electricity
load demand (ELD) forecast within an horizon of 24 to 48 hours, in order to identify the need of reserves to be allocated in the Iberian Market. In this work we present some preliminary results about the identi cation of radial basis function (RBF) neural network (NN) ELD predictive models and about the performance of a model selection algorithm. The methodology follows the principles already employed by the authors in di erent applications: the NN models are
trained by the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm using a modi ed training criterion, and the
model structure (number of neurons and input terms) is evolved using a Multi-Objective
Genetic Algorithm (MOGA). The set of goals and objectives used in the MOGA model
optimisation reflect different requirements in the design: obtaining good generalisation ability, good balance between one-step-ahead prediction accuracy and model complexity, and good multi-step prediction accuracy. A number of experiments were carried out, whose results are presented, producing already a number of models whose predictive performance is satisfactory.
Description
Keywords
Electricity load Demand Radial Basis Functions Neural Networks Prediction Modelling
Citation
Ferreira, P. M.; Ruano, A. E. Evolving RBF predictive models to forecast the Portuguese electricity consumption, Trabalho apresentado em Intelligent Control Systems and Signal Processing, In Proceedings of the 2nd IFAC International Conference on Intelligent Control Systems and Signal Processing (2009), Istambul, 2009.
