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Simulating the impacts of future land use change on soil erosion in the Kasilian watershed, Iran

2017-09Journal article Restricted access
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dc.contributor.authorZare, Mohammad
dc.contributor.authorPanagopoulos, Thomas
dc.contributor.authorLoures, Luis
dc.date.accessioned2019-11-20T15:07:22Z
dc.date.available2019-11-20T15:07:22Z
dc.date.issued2017-09
dc.description.abstractPredicting soil erosion potential is important in watershed management. A rapidly growing Iranian population and climate change are expected to influence land use and soil sustainability. in recent years, northern Iran has experienced significant land use changes due to internal migration along the Caspian coast and conversion of forests and rangelands. Considering the effect of these changes in the future, the purpose of this study is to forecast land use patterns and investigate soil erosion scenarios using the Revised Universal Loss Equation and Markov Cellular Automata. Data from 1981 to 2011 were used as a baseline to estimate changes that might occur in 2030. The results reveal that the mean erosion potential will increase 45% from the estimated 104.52 t ha(-1) year(-1) in the baseline period. Moreover, the results indicate that land use change from forest area to settlements will be the most significant factor in erosion induced by land use change, showing the highest correlation among erosional factors. Projecting land use change and its effect on soil erosion indicate that conversion may be unsustainable if change occurs on land that is not suited to the use. The method predicts soil erosion under different scenarios and provides policymakers a basis for altering programs related to land use optimization and urban growth. Those results indicated the necessity of appropriate policies and regulations particularly for limiting land use changes and urban sprawl in areas of unfavorable soil erosion risk factors.
dc.description.sponsorshipResearch Center for Spatial and Organizational Dynamics (CIEO)
dc.description.sponsorshipPortuguese Foundation for Science (FCT)
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.landusepol.2017.06.028
dc.identifier.issn0264-8377
dc.identifier.issn1873-5754
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.1/13007
dc.language.isoeng
dc.peerreviewedyes
dc.publisherElsevier Sci Ltd
dc.relationINtegrated Spatial PlannIng, land use and soil management Research ActTION
dc.subjectCellular-Automata Models
dc.subjectLoess Plateau
dc.subjectSediment Yield
dc.subjectLoss Equation
dc.subjectCover Change
dc.subjectRusle
dc.subjectGis
dc.subjectClimate
dc.subjectChina
dc.subjectScale
dc.titleSimulating the impacts of future land use change on soil erosion in the Kasilian watershed, Iran
dc.typejournal article
dspace.entity.typePublication
oaire.awardTitleINtegrated Spatial PlannIng, land use and soil management Research ActTION
oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/642372/EU
oaire.citation.endPage572
oaire.citation.startPage558
oaire.citation.titleLand Use Policy
oaire.citation.volume67
oaire.fundingStreamH2020
person.familyNamePanagopoulos
person.givenNameThomas
person.identifierR-000-K9N
person.identifier.ciencia-id411D-5652-57A8
person.identifier.orcid0000-0002-8073-2097
person.identifier.ridA-3048-2012
person.identifier.scopus-author-id9736690000
project.funder.identifierhttp://doi.org/10.13039/501100008530
project.funder.nameEuropean Commission
rcaap.rightsrestrictedAccess
rcaap.typearticle
relation.isAuthorOfPublication3dfd5be1-8e22-4dda-bd34-f3b1e5f249e2
relation.isAuthorOfPublication.latestForDiscovery3dfd5be1-8e22-4dda-bd34-f3b1e5f249e2
relation.isProjectOfPublication4ccb8758-df66-4d06-8a94-87b49da65bf4
relation.isProjectOfPublication.latestForDiscovery4ccb8758-df66-4d06-8a94-87b49da65bf4

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