Percorrer por autor "Lobo, J. M."
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- Assessing the conservation status of an Iberian moth using pseudo-absencesPublication . Chefaoui, Rosa; Lobo, J. M.Knowing the distribution of endangered species is of substantial importance for conservation. We considered a useful approach for modeling species distribution when managing information from atlases and museums but when absence data is not available. By modeling the distribution for Graellsia isabelae, a threatened moth species, we assessed its current conservation status and identified its most relevant distribution explanatory variables using Geographic Information System and Generalized Linear Models. The distribution model was built from 136 occurrence records and 25 digitized explanatory variables at a 10310 km resolution. Model predictions from logistic-regressed pseudo-absences, obtained from a presence-only method (Ecological-Niche Factor Analysis), explained 96.23% of the total deviance. We found that the best predictor variables were summer precipitation, aridity, and mean elevation. With respect to host plants, the presence of G. isabelae associated mainly with Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) and Austrian pine (P. nigra). The finding of 8 areas, exclusively in the eastern Iberian territory, and a larger unoccupied habitat in the western Iberian Peninsula indicates that this species is probably not in equilibrium with its environment by historical factors. Sites of Community Importance under protection do not seem sufficient to maintain current populations, necessitating the protection of suitable neighboring habitats. Our methodology is useful to manage the conservation status of species for which reliable absence data is not available. It is possible to determine those variables that most affect the distribution of species as well as the potential suitable areas with the purpose of evaluating protected areas, connectivity among populations, and possible reintroductions.
- Assessing the effects of pseudo-absences on predictive distribution model performancePublication . Chefaoui, Rosa; Lobo, J. M.Modelling species distributions with presence data from atlases, museum collections and databases is challenging. In this paper, we compare seven procedures to generate pseudoabsence data, which in turn are used to generate GLM-logistic regressed models when reliable absence data are not available. We use pseudo-absences selected randomly or by means of presence-only methods (ENFA and MDE) to model the distribution of a threatened endemic Iberian moth species (Graellsia isabelae). The results show that the pseudo-absence selection method greatly influences the percentage of explained variability, the scores of the accuracy measures and, most importantly, the degree of constraint in the distribution estimated. As we extract pseudo-absences from environmental regions further from the optimum established by presence data, the models generated obtain better accuracy scores, and over-prediction increases. When variables other than environmental ones influence the distribution of the species (i.e., non-equilibrium state) and precise information on absences is non-existent, the random selection of pseudo-absences or their selection from environmental localities similar to those of species presence data generates the most constrained predictive distribution maps, because pseudo-absences can be located within environmentally suitable areas. This study showsthat ifwe do not have reliable absence data, the method of pseudo-absence selection strongly conditions the obtained model, generating different model predictions in the gradient between potential and realized distributions.
- Effects of species' traits and data characteristics on distribution models of threatened invertebratesPublication . Chefaoui, Rosa; Lobo, J. M.; Hortal, JoaquínEffects of species’ traits and data characteristics on distribution models of threatened invertebrates.— The lack of information about the distribution of threatened species inhibits the development of strategies for their conservation. This is a particularly important problem when considering invertebrates. Here we evaluate the effects of species’ traits and data characteristics on the accuracy of species distribution models (SDM) of 20 threatened Iberian invertebrates. We found that the accuracy of the predictions was mostly affected by the characteristics of the data. Species whose distributions were most accurately modelled were those with a greater sample size or smaller relative occurrence area (ROA). Species in habitats that were difficult to detect using GIS data, such as riparian species, tended to be more difficult to predict.
- Potential distribution modelling, niche characterization and conservation status assessment using GIS tools: A case study of Iberian Copris speciesPublication . Chefaoui, Rosa; Hortal, Joaquín; Lobo, J. M.Dung beetle populations, in decline, play a critical ecological role in extensive pasture ecosystems by recycling organic matter; thus the importance of their conservation status. Presence data available for Copris hispanus (L.) and Copris lunaris (L.) (Coleoptera, Scarabaeidae) in Comunidad de Madrid (CM), and BIOMAPPER, a GIS-based tool, was used to model their environmental niches. The so derived potential distributions of both species were used to exemplify the utility of this kind of methodologies in conservation assessment, as well as its capacity to describe the potential sympatry between two or more species. Both species, distributed along a Dry-Mediterranean to Wet-Alpine environmental conditions gradient, overlap in areas of moderate temperatures and mean annual precipitations in the north of CM. Copris are poorly conserved in the existing protected sites network, but protection provided by new sites included in the future Natura 2000 Network will improve the general conservation status of these species in CM.
- Using ATLANTIS-Tierra 2.0 and GIS environmental information to predict the spatial distribution and habitat suitability of endemic speciesPublication . Hortal, Joaquín; Borges, Paulo A. V.; Dinis, Francisco; Jiménez-Valverde, Alberto; Chefaoui, Rosa; Lobo, J. M.; Jarroca, Sandra; Azevedo, Eduardo B.; Rodrigues, Conceição; Madruga, JoãoO conhecimento da distribuição de espécies raras requer muito esforço devido às dificuldades inerentes à detecção das suas populações. Neste capítulo, apresenta-se um exemplo de modelação da distribuição potencial de espécies endémicas de insectos, que constituem uma preocupação de conservação nos Açores. São analisados dados extraídos da base de dados ATLANTIS com o objectivo de desenvolver mapas preditivos da distribuição de quatro escaravelhos endémicos (Insecta, Coleoptera) na ilha Terceira: Cedrorum azoricus azoricus Borges & Serrano, 1993; Trechus terceiranus Machado, 1988; Trechus terrabravensis Borges, Serrano & Amorim, 2004; e Alestrus dolosus (Crotch, 1867). São usadas duas técnicas amplamente aplicadas nestas situações (BIOCLIM e BioMapper) de forma a desenvolver os mapas de distribuição, mas igualmente a obter a descrição do nicho ecológico de cada espécie. Todas as espécies, excepto T. terceiranus, apresentam grandes restrições de habitat. As outras três espécies parecem estar ambientalmente restringidas a duas áreas espaciais bem definidas, localizadas nas partes oeste (Serra de Santa Bárbara) e central (Terra Brava) da ilha Terceira. Contudo, enquanto A. dolosus estará potencialmente espalhado em ambas as áreas, de acordo com os seus requisitos de habitat, C. azoricus azoricus e T. terrabravensis parecem possuir adaptações ambientais muito mais restritivas. No entanto, como os dados sobre a distribuição conhecida destas espécies se revelaram escassos, a eficácia dos mapas de predição não é propriamente a ideal. Deste modo, é discutida de forma exaustiva a utilidade das técnicas utilizadas, num contexto de gestão da conservação. São igualmente discutidos os problemas surgidos durante o processo de modelação dos dados e como estes podem ser resolvidos. Finalmente são apresentadas sugestões para melhorar a informação a obter da base de dados ATLANTIS.