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- A tourism research agenda for PortugalPublication . Silva, João Albino; Rodrigues, Paulo M. M.; Mendes, Júlio; Pereira, Luis NobreThe need to direct research towards the tourism industry is related to the increasingly competitive environment it fi nds itself in, especially in terms of services rendered, having grown more complex in the features and critique that comprise the tourist experience, and as economic and social agents become more selective regarding both demand and supply. Possessing information and the proper understanding of the real needs of information users and those responsible for public and private decision-making processes at the action and intervention levels becomes a fundamental issue for sustainable tourism growth and its statement for international competitiveness. This paper proposes a tourism research agenda for Portugal in order to guide future developments towards the industry’s needs.
- Os determinantes do crescimento económico português: significância e causalidadePublication . Andraz, Jorge Miguel; Rodrigues, Paulo M. M.Este artigo pretende avaliar a importância destes factores no crescimento económico portugês.
- Modelling and forecasting the UK tourism growth cycle in AlgarvePublication . Andraz, Jorge Miguel; Gouveia, Pedro; Rodrigues, Paulo M. M.Over the past three decades, Portugal has developed a strong economic dependence on tourism, which has several implications for the country's overall economic development. Tourism is an activity that is interrelated strongly with the economic system since Portugal as a whole and specific regions in particular rely on the performance of tourism for their economic activity. Moreover, because economic cycles affect tourism development, it is highly vulnerable to economic fluctuations. Most tourists who visit Portugal are from the European Union, especially Western Europe. Statistics are based on the number of overnight stays in hotel accommodation and other similar establishments. In 2005, the main source markets were the UK (30.7%), Germany (16.5%), Spain (11.5%), the Netherlands (6.8%), France (4.7%), Ireland (3.6%) and Italy (3.1%). These values show that the UK has the greatest share of visitors to Algarve. The purpose of this paper is to propose a modelling approach that best fits the tourism flow pattern in order to support forecasting. The paper contributes to our understanding of the relationship between economic cycles and tourism flows to Portugal (Algarve) and explores the potential of applying the diffusion index model proposed by Stock and Watson (1999, 2002) for tourism demand forecasting.