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- Predicting the impact of management and climate scenarios on groundwater nitrate concentration trends in southern PortugalPublication . Costa, Luis; Hugman, Rui; Stigter, Tibor Y.; Monteiro, José PauloThe dynamics related to evolution of nitrate-contaminated groundwater are analyzed with focus on the impact of intrinsic aquifer properties, agricultural activities and restoration measures at Campina de Faro aquifer (M12), southern Portugal. Agricultural practices in the region developed in the 1970s and resulted in high abstraction rates, nitrate contamination and salinization. Despite the implementation of the European Union (EU) Nitrates Directive since 1997, nitrate levels still show increasing trends at some locations, constituting a threat to the chemical status of M12 and consequent nitrate discharge to Ria Formosa coastal lagoon. Simultaneously, groundwater levels are not dropping consistently, despite apparent overexploitation. A groundwater flow and mass transport model is developed for M12 to assess the evolution of nitrate under different scenarios. Model results reveal that M12 has a hydraulic connection with northernmost aquifers, a process not properly assessed so far. Results further show that nitrate contamination in the upper Plio-Quaternary layer of M12 is extremely persistent and mostly linked to unbalanced fertilizer application practices and irrigation return flows. The response of M12 to implementation of good agricultural practices in compliance with EU policies is slow, indicating that good qualitative status would be impossible to reach by the required EU deadlines. Integration of climate change scenarios into the transport model reveals that despite the implementation of restoration measures, there could be a retardation of the nitrate levels' decrease in the upper aquifer as a result of enhanced evapoconcentration caused by lower recharge, higher water demands and incomplete mixing within the aquifer.
- Numerical modelling assessment of climate-change impacts and mitigation measures on the Querença-Silves coastal aquifer (Algarve, Portugal)Publication . Hugman, Rui; Stigter, Tibor; Costa, Luis; Monteiro, José PauloPredicted changes in climate will lead to seawater intrusion in the Querença-Silves (QS) coastal aquifer (south Portugal) during the coming century if the current waterresource-management strategy is maintained. As for much of the Mediterranean, average rainfall is predicted to decrease along with increasing seasonal and inter-annual variability and there is a need to understand how these changes will affect the sustainable use of groundwater resources. A densitycoupled flow and transport model of the QS was used to simulate an ensemble of climate, water-use and adaptation scenarios from 2010 to 2099 taking into account intra- and interannual variability in recharge and groundwater use. By considering several climate models, bias correction and recharge calculation methods, a degree of uncertainty was included. Changes in rainfall regimes will have an immediate effect on groundwater discharge; however, the effect on saltwater intrusion is attenuated by the freshwater–saltwater interfaces’ comparatively slow rate of movement. Comparing the effects of adaptation measures demonstrates that the extent of intrusion in the QS is controlled by the long-term water budget, as the effectiveness of both demand and supply oriented measures is proportional to the change in water budget, and that to maintain the current position, average groundwater discharge should be in the order of 50 × 106 m3 yr−1.
- Decision-support groundwater modelling of managed aquifer recharge in a Coastal Aquifer in South PortugalPublication . Standen, Kathleen; Hugman, Rui; Monteiro, José PauloThe Vale do Lobo sector of the Campina de Faro aquifer system in the Algarve (Portugal) is at risk of seawater intrusion. Managed Aquifer Recharge (MAR) is being considered to avoid groundwater quality deterioration. Numerical modelling was undertaken to assess the feasibility of several proposed MAR schemes. Although some data is available, many aspects of system behaviour are not well understood or measured. We demonstrate the use of a structurally simple but parametrically complex model for decision-making in a coastal aquifer. Modelling was designed to facilitate uncertainty reduction through data assimilation where possible, whilst acknowledging that which remains unknown elsewhere. Open-source software was employed throughout, and the workflow was scripted (reproducible). The model was designed to be fast-running (rapid) and numerically stable to facilitate data assimilation and represent prediction-pertinent uncertainty (robust). Omitting physical processes and structural detail constrains the type of predictions that can be made. This was addressed by assessing the effectiveness of MAR at maintaining the fresh-seawater interface (approximated using the Ghyben-Herzberg relationship) below specified thresholds. This enabled the use of a constant-density model, rather than attempting to explicitly simulating the interaction between fresh and seawater. Although predictive uncertainty may be increased, it is outweighed by the ability to extract information from the available data. Results show that, due to the limit on water availability and the continued groundwater extraction at unsustainable rates, only limited improvements in hydraulic heads can be achieved with the proposed MAR schemes. This is an important finding for decision-makers, as it indicates that a considerable reduction in extraction in addition to MAR will be required. Our approach identified these limitations, avoiding the need for further data collection, and demonstrating the value of purposeful model design.