Policy guidelines for the regeneration in shrinking cities

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Historical trajectories of currently shrinking Portuguese cities: A typology of urban shrinkage

Publication . Alves, Daniel; Barreira, Ana Paula; Guimarães, Maria Helena; Panagopoulos, Thomas

Cities develop according to different patterns, undergoing population growth during some periods and decline (shrinkage) during others. Theories attempting to understand these behaviours include: 1) shrinkage is a natural process in the life cycle of a city, alternating with periods of growth, or 2) shrinkage is an extreme event that places cities into a continuous decline process with no return to population growth. We use retrospective data over a period of 130 years to study 25 Portuguese cities currently facing population decline, and show that both theories coexist in time and space. Five types of shrinking city are revealed: "Persistent Early Shrinkage" due to exodus from the rural periphery, "Metropolitan Shrinkage" due to the challenges of urban sprawl, "Recent Shrinkage" in de-industrialisation hotspots, "Cyclic Shrinkage" occurring in political transformation cores, and "Mild Shrinkage" due to life-style disamenity. As diversity of city population trajectories appears to be the norm in both Portugal and other Western European countries, the incorporation of this range into the management of urban transitions is recommended in order to reinforce city resilience. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

2016-07Journal article

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What makes people stay in or leave shrinking cities? An empirical study from Portugal

Publication . Guimarães, Maria Helena; Nunes, Luis Catela; Barreira, Ana Paula; Panagopoulos, Thomas

The attractiveness of cities as places to live determines population movements into or out of them. Understanding the appealing features is fundamental to local governments, particularly for cities facing population decline. Pull and push attributes can include economic aspects, the availability of amenities and psychological constructs, initiating a discussion around which factors are more relevant for migration. However, such discussion has been underexplored in studies of shrinking cities. In the present study, we contribute to the discussion by identifying pull and push factors in Portuguese shrinking cities. Data were collected using a face-to-face questionnaire of 701 residents in four shrinking cities: Oporto, Barreiro, Peso da Regua and Moura. Factor analysis and automatic linear modelling were used to analyse the data. Our results show that the economic activity is the most relevant feature for retaining residents. However, characteristics specific to each city, related to heritage and natural beauty, are also shown to influence a city's attractiveness. The cause of population shrinkage was also found to influence residents' assessments of the pull and push attributes of each city. Furthermore, the results show the relevance of social ties and of place attachment to inhabitants' intention to continue living in their city of residence.

2016Journal article

Open Access

Exploring residential satisfaction in shrinking cities: a decision-tree approach

Publication . Barreira, Ana Paula; Agapito, Dora; Panagopoulos, Thomas; Guimarães, Maria Helena

The number of cities experiencing population decline has been increasing worldwide. Despite the existence of theoretical propositions of shrinkage as an opportunity to increase levels of residential satisfaction, the issue has not been addressed empirically. This article contributes to fill this gap by assessing, through survey, the residential satisfaction of inhabitants of four shrinking Portuguese cities. Data were analysed by means of a tree-decision approach: the Chi-squared Automatic Interaction Detection analysis. A sense of safety is the feature that best discriminates inhabitants' level of residential satisfaction. The results show that shrinkage due to deindustrialisation processes is detrimental to residential satisfaction.

2017Journal article

Open Access

Factors driving the population growth and decline of portuguese cities

Publication . Barreira, Ana Paula; Ramalho, Joaquim J. S.; Panagopoulos, Thomas; Guimarães, Maria Helena

Despite the worldwide trend of urbanisation, data reveal that some cities are growing whereas others are losing inhabitants. To assess such dynamics in Portuguese cities, demographic, employment, housing, and climate variables were analysed as possible drivers of population change for the period 1991-2011. Panel data models show that higher shares of employment in the secondary and tertiary sectors, higher maximum temperatures, and a higher proportion of middle-aged vacant houses act as pull factors attracting inhabitants, whereas a higher unemployment rate is a push factor for cities.

2017-12Journal article

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Satisfied but thinking about leaving: the reasons behind residential satisfaction and residential attractiveness in shrinking Portuguese cities

Publication . Barreira, Ana; Nunes, Luis Catela; Guimaraes, Maria Helena; Panagopoulos, Thomas

Creating liveable cities is a policy priority, especially for cities that are experiencing population loss. A decline in the number of inhabitants is commonly associated with low levels of residential satisfaction. However, such a supposition does not often find empirical support in shrinking cities. In the present study, we identify variables that influence the level of residential satisfaction, as well as those influencing residential attraction (captured by the intention of current residents to leave their city in the near future). The study is based on a face-to-face questionnaire administered to 701 residents in four shrinking Portuguese cities. As expected, lower levels of residential satisfaction lead to an increased intention to leave the city. The results also show that the variables explaining residential satisfaction mostly differ from those explaining residential attractiveness. The specific characteristics of each city influence citizens' assessment of residential satisfaction, but the variables impacting residential attractiveness are universal.

2019Journal article

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